ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

It was flagged, clearly rain contaminated when the flight level wind was only 21 knots.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF307-0301A-INVEST_timeseries.png

not showing up as flagged

I don't see it being flagged on Tropical Atlantic either

It was in a heavy squall. FL winds were < 20 kts. Completely unrepresentative of any circulation. Those squalls will easily produce wind gusts 40-45 kts, as can any squall in the Gulf, but without a well-defined LLC it's just a disturbance. It really does not matter whether or not it is called Alex before reaching Florida, the weather in Florida will be the same. There will be no weather associated with the exposed center when it reaches the coast near sunrise tomorrow. All squalls will be way to the east, and there won't be any wind associated with the center. Rain may be nearly over in Florida by mid morning on Saturday as the center nears southern Okeechobee.

[NDG]

Where the recon found the lowest pressure and a slight wind shift, maybe a sign of some convection firing up to the NE of it.
Not a really good satellite presentation for sure, it has more of a subtropical look to it with the dry air punching into it.

[cycloneye]

No TS Alex yet.

AL, 01, 2022060312, , BEST, 0, 222N, 870W, 35, 1002, DB

[Blown Away]

No TS Alex yet.

AL, 01, 2022060312, , BEST, 0, 222N, 870W, 35, 1002, DB

Large weak circulation there.

[wxman57]

I don't see where recon found more than 25 kts or so. This isn't a 35kt TS.

[skyline385]

What a mess...

[GCANE]

Seeing a good infeed of high TPW air from the EPAC flowing across Panama and Nicaragua.
Converging in the Yucatan Channel and entraining into the LLC.

[aspen]

The NHC made the right call not to upgrade this at 5am. I don’t know why recon found what looked like a 40 kt TS earlier and couldn’t find that now, but whatever the reason, it wasn’t permanent.

I’m getting a little doubtful this actually develops into a TS at this point.

[SFLcane]

VW was sent out for HH this will likely be upgraded to Alex at 11am

[AutoPenalti]

VW was sent out for HH this will likely be upgraded to Alex at 11am

I'm confused, I don't believe there has been any indication that this is over 40kt winds but it's being classified as a TS?

[Ubuntwo]

I don't see where recon found more than 25 kts or so. This isn't a 35kt TS.

The second flight (overnight hours) found 47kt FL and 40kt SFMR in an area east of center. Evidently those winds were not driven by the pressure gradient, but that is what led the NHC to up PTC1 to 35kt.

[GCANE]

My take is this ramps up a bit this afternoon.
Seeing CAPE increase in the LLC.
Dryline convection getting stronger NE of the LLC.
Convective cap is pretty much gone over FL.
NHC maybe anticipating this.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Circulation mostly exposed, but better defined than yesterday. Almost looks stationary or WSW movement?

[GCANE]

Also seeing a lot of cumulus forming over north Yucatan.
Should evolve into heavy popup thunderstorms later in the afternoon.
The resultant convective debris will likely entrain into the LLC in the evening and add moisture to enhance development.

[AutoPenalti]

It's puking out outflow boundaries.

[wxman57]

Straight-line winds in squalls should not make this qualify as a TS, if it has them. Circulation is very weak. It may barely qualify as a TD, based on recon, but I don't think it qualifies as a TS due to an isolated thunderstorm that produced a 10-sec wind of 41 kts. Nevertheless, the NHC appears intent on calling it Alex so that people will pay more attention to it vs. "PTC One". Names are scarier. Regardless, just some rain for south FL today to about late morning tomorrow. Nothing at all will be associated with the center when it reaches the coast. By then, most squalls will have moved off the east coast.

[GCANE]

It seems like its forming a better mid-level circulation when I look at visible satellite.

[kevin]

Still kind of a mess, but I do think it's improving a bit now on satellite.

[tolakram]

COD floater loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined