ATL: IAN - Models

[cheezyWXguy]

12z HWRF through hour 63 is about a degree further east than 06z, but still pretty far offshore

[Fancy1001]

The HWRF model didn’t head to Tampa, but this run I think it’s close enough for long enough to where it will add a decent amount of storm surge into the bay

[skyline385]

12Z HMON still with the landfall




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[Beef Stew]

Yikes, now all models are zeroing in on Tampa or just around it, did new data come in?

We’re still seeing a large amount of disparity in the tracks. I wouldn’t say though Tampa’s being zeroed in on however, while the OP GFS is modeling a landfall there it’s a notable eastern outlier when compared to the most recent ensemble suite.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro started

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 24 is barely NE of 6Z Euro 30

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 48 is 50 miles NE of 6Z Euro and has a slightly stronger H5 NE US trough

[Miamimeetro]

Majority of the models take it up the coast just off shore, so you might get hurricane winds in the NE quadrant for a longer time. Where landfall is might be a secondary concern.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 72 is between the 0Z and 6Z runs for same timeframe

[Pelicane]

Majority of the models take it up the coast just off shore, so you might get hurricane winds in the NE quadrant for a longer time. Where landfall is might be a secondary concern.

The strongest winds would actually be on the NW side because the shear will force dry air in from the SW side. Levi talked about it in his video today.

[tolakram]

12Z UK

[CronkPSU]

yeah like i said earlier the 6z and 18z have been wonky the past 24 hours and thought this would come back to where it has been most of the last few days...awful scenario may be playing out here in Central Florida

[chris_fit]

Euro decent E Shift from 06Z Run but still offshore

[SFLcane]

12Z UK
https://i.imgur.com/zetY6sk.gif

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 72 has a slightly stronger NE US H5 trough than 6Z and 00Z runs.

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro is pretty much exactly like the 00Z Run just much stronger this time around.

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

12Z UK
https://i.imgur.com/zetY6sk.gif

I will give it a 10 for persistence and not going all over the place. We shall see