ATL: IAN - Models

[CronkPSU]

they are going to have to move the cone (edit forecast point) even more slightly east after this run

[tolakram]

they are going to have to move the cone even more slightly east after this run

Semantics, but cone does not move, forecast points move. Cone is just a circle around each point with a diameter set yearly based on average error. I think you know this, but putting it here for everyone.

[toad strangler]

MAN oh MAN that trough placement and movement out is soooo tricky and means everything to many people.

[LarryWx]

At hour 120 of 12Z, Euro (Columbus, GA) is 300 miles west of the UKMET (CHS)!

[SFLcane]

MAN oh MAN that trough placement and movement out is soooo tricky and means everything to many people.

Yep!! But as i said either the UKMET is out of its mind or it will score big soon.

[tolakram]

Will have to wait for the full run to see how long it takes to move away.

[AutoPenalti]

All bets are off after Cuba, it's insane how much variability there is. Recon also made a pass and had the center slightly E of the forecast point.

[Kohlecane]

MAN oh MAN that trough placement and movement out is soooo tricky and means everything to many people.

Yep!! But as i said either the UKMET is out of its mind or it will score big soon.

It did well with Grace last year as the furthest Western outlier

[tolakram]

Does anyone have the steering maps handy and/or can post a link to find them? Thanks!!

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

[cycloneye]

TVCN over Tampa.

[Kazmit]

This reminds me a lot of Hurricane Matthew and how close it would get to the east coast of Florida. Except this is on the west coast.

[skillz305]

TVCN over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/m9ZRBh1.png

Wow brother, that cone is definitely gonna have to shift IMHO.

[Beachside]

TVCN over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/m9ZRBh1.png

As a Space Coast resident, I sure hope UKMET is out to lunch on this one.....

[Teban54]

This reminds me a lot of Hurricane Matthew and how close it would get to the east coast of Florida. Except this is on the west coast.

Also Dorian with the stall.

But even worse, because Tampa will be on the dirty side.

[Category5Kaiju]

This reminds me a lot of Hurricane Matthew and how close it would get to the east coast of Florida. Except this is on the west coast.

And has a chance of actually hitting a big city head-on with hurricane force winds.

Idk, something tells me that this might be "the storm" that Tampa Bay has feared would happen ever since 1921.

[skillz305]

TVCN over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/m9ZRBh1.png

As a Space Coast resident, I sure hope UKMET is out to lunch on this one.....

Honestly - a lot of models are starting to agree that this storm is gonna get pulled by that trough thru central Florida. Not liking this one but. Vero Beach here.

[jlauderdal]

TVCN over Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/m9ZRBh1.png

Wow brother, that cone is definitely gonna have to shift IMHO.

The forecast track will shift and the cone will shift accordingly.

[Fancy1001]

This reminds me a lot of Hurricane Matthew and how close it would get to the east coast of Florida. Except this is on the west coast.

And has a chance of actually hitting a big city head-on with hurricane force winds.

Idk, something tells me that this might be "the storm" that Tampa Bay has feared would happen ever since 1921.

In order for the storm to be hurricane Phoenix, the storm that you’re referring to, it would need to be a strong cat 4 or a cat five at landfall.

[N2FSU]

Question for someone smarter than me: How does the Euro shift west 3 runs in a row and yet the TVCN shifts east? Does the UKMET carry as much weight as the Euro all of a sudden? The UK is the eastern outlier now.


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[PandaCitrus]

Hitting Tampa in the official NHC track makes sense from a media perspective. Major mandatory evacuations will start in Hillsborough and Pinellas today and tomorrow and you need to drive the point how. The fact that the science backs up the call makes it the right call too with TVCN. Truth be told whether its a direct hit or just off the coast the effects will be similar with surge and that is where lives are lost. I'm not sure they have much choice.