ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[Jr0d]

I am flying out of Orlando at 630 tomorrow morning. Hopefully I wont get delayed. Looks like the heaviest stuff wont be there until late morning so I should be ok.

Its rare for a minimal tropical storm to cause much in the way of delays besides.

[Category5Kaiju]

The NHC made the right call not to upgrade this at 5am. I don’t know why recon found what looked like a 40 kt TS earlier and couldn’t find that now, but whatever the reason, it wasn’t permanent.

I’m getting a little doubtful this actually develops into a TS at this point.

I personally think this will still become Alex (albeit heavily sheared), and I don’t see what exactly would definitively prevent PTC1 from being at least a 40 mph TS. There have been many storms in the past that have had to contend with even harsher conditions but still became NSs

[wxman57]

I am flying out of Orlando at 630 tomorrow morning. Hopefully I wont get delayed. Looks like the heaviest stuff wont be there until late morning so I should be ok.

Its rare for a minimal tropical storm to cause much in the way of delays besides.

Just scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow morning that far north. As long as your plane isn't arriving from Miami, it shouldn't be delayed.

[toad strangler]

PBI may have some issues too.

[cycloneye]

From 10 AM discussion:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the disturbance has become a
little better defined over the Gulf of Mexico north of the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and that the central pressure is
near 1002 mb. However, the associated convection is poorly
organized, with radar data from Cuba and Mexico showing that the
strong convection over the northwestern Caribbean Sea more resembles
a mid-latitude squall line than a tropical cyclone rain band. In
addition, the airplane has yet to report tropical-storm force winds,
although it has not yet sampled the areas of stronger convection.
Based on the current data, the system has not yet become a tropical
storm and will remain a potential tropical cyclone on this advisory.

[wxman57]

Good call by the NHC. I'm not sure it will ever get much better organized before the center reaches Florida about this time tomorrow. It was always going to be just a rain event.

[ObsessedMiami]

NWS Miami is now forecasting "Tropical Storm conditions expected" for Saturday, up from "Possible" last night and just "Heavy Rain" this morning.
Where I am in West Kendall they are also forecasting 6 inches + of rain

[jlauderdal]

NWS Miami is now forecasting "Tropical Storm conditions expected" for Saturday, up from "Possible" last night and just "Heavy Rain" this morning.
Where I am in West Kendall they are also forecasting 6 inches + of rain

Considering there is a Tropical Storm warning, their wording makes sense.

[Sanibel]

Typical early June GOM stretched-out mess...Mostly rain...

[skyline385]

Looking slightly better although anything would be better than the mess from earlier today

[Sciencerocks]

[fllawyer]

Long time lurker, been enjoying the input on this storm. Thanks to all for the insights.

Left middle Keys yesterday afternoon in a 55 foot boat making about 10kts/hr. Sporty getting out of coastal waters, then a fairly smooth trip until some squalls near Andros. Overall, a decent crossing all things considered.

For now, main areas of rain seem to be staying west although that will likely change later today. Expecting to hunker down tomorrow while winds and rain pass.

[NDG]

Long time lurker, been enjoying the input on this storm. Thanks to all for the insights.

Left middle Keys yesterday afternoon in a 55 foot boat making about 10kts/hr. Sporty getting out of coastal waters, then a fairly smooth trip until some squalls near Andros. Overall, a decent crossing all things considered.

For now, main areas of rain seem to be staying west although that will likely change later today. Expecting to hunker down tomorrow while winds and rain pass.

Nice!

[Jr0d]

[
Just scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow morning that far north. As long as your plane isn't arriving from Miami, it shouldn't be delayed.

Good to go on that. My plane arrives this evening and stays the night in Orlando. Might be a bit bumpy takeoff until we get the cruising altitude.

Now if this strengthens enough Sunday/Monday over the Atlantic and points some decent NW winds at Puerto Rico, I will be having some fun Wednesday when the swell arrives.

[wxman57]

Wind shear is clearly increasing now, as expected. May just be squalls moving from south to north across Florida today into Saturday morning. Likely no sustained TS wind, but some gusts 40-50 mph possible along the beaches in the heavier squalls.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This storm may pull an Alex and become a hurricane in the Atlantic after florida

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1532747451991527424

[NDG]

Definitely looks more like a mid latitude cyclone than a pure tropical system as noted by the NHC.
More typical than not for this time of the year when there's shear and continental ML dry air that gets pushed against it.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1532739101862010884

[cycloneye]

Cantore is right.

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1532748375682056192