ATL: IAN - Models

[blp]

:crazyeyes: ensembles now all south of Tampa!

https://i.postimg.cc/4yTcZcJb/6-C0-DCF05-A16-D-434-A-A13-E-9-CC81-ECC6-CBC.jpg

And there’s the shock of the night. If the UKMet ends up nailing this after all, it’ll be quite a showing for the model. All eyes are waiting on the 0z GFS ensembles now.

Ukmet has had it's wins in the past. It was the first showing the west trend in Irma that spared metro Dade and Broward and drove it toward Cuba then over the lower keys and west coast when Euro and GFS were locked in. Ukmet is a top notch model so the fact it's been trending south past few runs is a concern.

[skillz305]

On behalf of the 3 million residents of Tampa Bay area, we thank you Euro!

Happy for them, not so happy for me... Cat 1 conditions in CFL for sure, even in Kissimmee if this verifies

Vero Beach here.... yeah, this EURO run is mind boggling. Everyone tomorrow is going to START prepping....

[NDG]

On behalf of the 3 million residents of Tampa Bay area, we thank you Euro!

But 15-20+ inches of rain, not sure if that's any better than the storm surge if it tracks south of the Bay.

[robbielyn]

On behalf of the 3 million residents of Tampa Bay area, we thank you Euro!

YES! thank you very much!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

On behalf of the 3 million residents of Tampa Bay area, we thank you Euro!

YES! thank you very much!!!

Let's not put the cart before the horse. By no means is Tampa out on bail.

[NDG]

A closer look at the 0z TVCN.

[Hurricane Mike]

I have a feeling these models will result in a track shift at 11pm.

[johngaltfla]

A closer look at the 0z TVCN.

https://i.imgur.com/dy0weOu.gif

That's about as bad as it could get for Sarasota, Manatee, and the Tampa area.

[Beef Stew]

:crazyeyes: ensembles now all south of Tampa!

https://i.postimg.cc/4yTcZcJb/6-C0-DCF05-A16-D-434-A-A13-E-9-CC81-ECC6-CBC.jpg

And there’s the shock of the night. If the UKMet ends up nailing this after all, it’ll be quite a showing for the model. All eyes are waiting on the 0z GFS ensembles now.

Ukmet has had it's wins in the past. It was the first showing the west trend in Irma that spared metro Dade and Broward and drove it toward Cuba then over the lower keys and west coast when Euro and GFS were locked in. Ukmet is a top notch model so the fact it's been trending south past few runs is a concern.

Fully agree. The UKMet is a good model, but like all other does have it’s whiffs from time to time. If (and that’s still a big if!) the southern solution pans out this would be comparable to when it nailed Irma’s path 5 years ago.

[Blown Away]

18z Euro ensembles.


Real time radar position.

[skyline385]

Made a composite of the last 3 EPS runs

[tronbunny]

Methinks Ian smells the front/trough

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/vBmN5qv7/8201970-D-75-CE-4839-AFB7-13-AF1-E8-DB1-FA.jpg [/url]
18z Euro ensembles.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/X7F4Zqqj/EB87304-F-B511-41-B3-BE96-098-F002227-BD.jpg [/url]
Real time radar position.

[CrazyC83]

The Charley scenario of a late turn needs to be emphasized as a possibility. The angle of approach means that a slight change in track makes a big difference in landfall point. Hopefully no one gets caught off guard if that does happen.

[chaser1]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/vBmN5qv7/8201970-D-75-CE-4839-AFB7-13-AF1-E8-DB1-FA.jpg [/url]
18z Euro ensembles.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/X7F4Zqqj/EB87304-F-B511-41-B3-BE96-098-F002227-BD.jpg [/url]
Real time radar position.

Any chance you've figured how to speed up that radar LOL? I think i've tried everything

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1574572286643945472

[chaser1]

Certainly one huge distinction between Charlie and Ian - Speed (forward motion)

[PandaCitrus]

If you look at the Euro ensembles, the current track is aligned with landfall in Ft. Myers and out St. Lucie county with tremendous surge and wind effects on areas that are not paying any attention now like Naples and Palm Beach County. Also, a southern track may not have a chance to weaken much from the shear and come in really strong as a Cat 3/4.

The Charley scenario of a late turn needs to be emphasized as a possibility. The angle of approach means that a slight change in track makes a big difference in landfall point. Hopefully no one gets caught off guard if that does happen.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Made a composite of the last 3 EPS runs

https://i.imgur.com/lsHsE3O.jpg

This puts it into perspective.

[869MB]

While everyone anxiously awaits the 00Z GFS run to arrive, I think we all need to give a big shot out to all of the people and the hard work they put in over the years to improve the overall performance of our forecast weather computer models. Don't forget that Storm2K was able to create a thread back on Thursday, September 15th regarding this storm's potential threat toward Cuba and the United States.

I have some serious doubts that the forecast computer models 20 to 25 years ago would have been able to sniff out this threat as early as the ones we have today. Just food for thought when we're assessing a respective computer model's performance.

[otowntiger]

Certainly one huge distinction between Charlie and Ian - Speed (forward motion)

Exactly. Also potential size of the storm. Ian’s bigger. It could take the same/similar path to Charlie but since it’s moving much slower we, here in Orlando may not get the same amount of wind as a slow moving storm has much more time to diminish before getting this far inland, and rain wasn’t a problem. In Charlie we got 105mph gusts here. But only 2 inches of rain. Ian may bring 50 mph wind but 10 inches of rain. Of course this depends upon the storm following that path but obviously not in any way certain.