ATL: IAN - Models

[Meteorcane]

Made a composite of the last 3 EPS runs

Really shows the trend nicely... This is a rather massive shift (for an ensemble system) over a 12 hour period for what is essentially only a 48-72 hour forecast. Shows that the setup was highly volatile, as a slight decrease in forward speed, more westerly track into the SE GOM, or less amplified trough would result in Ian largely missing the trough and just very slowly drifting northward, while conversely a bit further eastern entry in the GOM, a faster motion, or a deeper trough would result in a sharper right hook.

Additionally it shows (which many of us already know) that the EPS ensembles are probably under-dispersive (i.e. overly confident and not accurately representing the range of actual potential outcomes)

[NFLnut]

Certainly one huge distinction between Charlie and Ian - Speed (forward motion)

Exactly. Also potential size of the storm. Ian’s bigger. It could take the same/similar path to Charlie but since it’s moving much slower we, here in Orlando may not get the same amount of wind as a slow moving storm has much more time to diminish before getting this far inland, and rain wasn’t a problem. In Charlie we got 105mph gusts here. But only 2 inches of rain. Ian may bring 50 mph wind but 10 inches of rain. Of course this depends upon the storm following that path but obviously not in any way certain.

Effectively, Charley was a big (okay, small .. compact), mean, fast moving tornado that went across the state in just a few short hours and wreaked destruction. It moved so fast that it had no time to weaken. It wasn't your garden variety Cat4 hurricane. I had two trees come down on my kitchen in north Orlando creating a 10 foot hole in the roof that I had to tar paper and tar over and pray it would hold up through the days-long Frances and Jeanne (it pretty much did).

[LarryWx]

0Z ICON 18 is slightly SW of 18Z 24 although it is still a tiny bit east of the 12Z 30

[Meteorcane]

Everyone's new favorite global model (probably only because it is the first to run in the cycle) the 00Z ICON, shows a landfall a smidge (like 10-20miles) north (and a little slower) than the 18Z run, with landfall around Venice.

[Poonwalker]

Wow! 18z Euro has Ian coming out of Cuba more to the right than previous 12z run!!!

https://i.imgur.com/GS2xswi.png

Ian isn’t going to come off Cuba at that location based on its current motion.

[ronjon]

Everyone's new favorite global model (probably only because it is the first to run in the cycle) the 00Z ICON, shows a landfall a smidge (like 10-20miles) north (and a little slower) than the 18Z run, with landfall around Venice.

Pretty close to 18z Euro then.

[NDG]

0z ICON is very similar to the 18z Euro.

[Coolcruiseman]

On behalf of the 3 million residents of Tampa Bay area, we thank you Euro!

Happy for them, not so happy for me... Cat 1 conditions in CFL for sure, even in Kissimmee if this verifies

Vero Beach here.... yeah, this EURO run is mind boggling. Everyone tomorrow is going to START prepping....

Not necessarily liking this in Melbourne if it verifies.

[eastcoastFL]

Has anyone posted the 0Z icon already ? It’s almost the same as the 18z Euro

[caneman]

0z ICON is very similar to the 18z Euro.

The Euro run already looks incorrect and too far East. The Map you posted earlier shows it at 83 after crossing Cuba and its already 83.4.

[MrJames]

ICON is much slower and comes of the Florida east coast a little further north near Daytona. From there it now shifts west and hugs the coast instead of moving offshore.

[NDG]

Wow! 18z Euro has Ian coming out of Cuba more to the right than previous 12z run!!!

https://i.imgur.com/GS2xswi.png

Ian isn’t going to come off Cuba at that location based on its current motion.

18z Euro shows it start moving due north soon.

[Bocadude85]

Wow! 18z Euro has Ian coming out of Cuba more to the right than previous 12z run!!!

https://i.imgur.com/GS2xswi.png

Ian isn’t going to come off Cuba at that location based on its current motion.

As the eye clears out the center will bounce all over the place, the current motion will bring Ian onshore Western Cuba east of 84

[IcyTundra]

0Z GFS about to run will be very telling imo.

[Blown Away]

0Z GFS about to run will be very telling imo.

If it sticks with something drifting in the GOM near Tampa again then this stuff across Central FL is probably wrong…

What concerns me is Euro finally moved back W of GFS past few runs and then 18z is way E.

About to find out!!!

[NDG]

0z ICON is very similar to the 18z Euro.

The Euro run already looks incorrect and too far East. The Map you posted earlier shows it at 83 after crossing Cuba and its already 83.4.

That is incorrect, the 18z Euro shows it leaving Cuba 83.6 W.
Due north of where it is right now, according to that run it should begin the true due north track soon.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS Trend

[Sanibel]

Wrong Thread (tired from heavy lifting)...

[skyline385]

0Z GFS bit weaker and slightly south of 18Z

[Teban54]

0z GFS 6-42 hrs