ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Is this the current track? Just waking up, looks similar to 11pm last night. But, I thought it was shifting south?

NHC 17 data has now been posted. There is an Advisory/Track window on the top bar. Select that and scroll to latest data. Map will refresh.

Bradenton/Sarasota now. Tampa appears to avoid the devastating surge with the shift south as of 5 am update.

However if the GFS is to be believed then Tampa gets like 40 inches of rain.


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[IcyTundra]

For folks who are already giving Tampa the clear, I have a question to ask: wouldn't the high likelihood that Ian ends up as a much larger system than, say, Charley, make Tampa still in the danger zone even if the hurricane doesn't like make landfall over the city directly?

How big is Ian going to end up being? Charley was a small system so it will probably be bigger but I'm not sure it will be much bigger than your average MH.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

For folks who are already giving Tampa the clear, I have a question to ask: wouldn't the high likelihood that Ian ends up as a much larger system than, say, Charley, make Tampa still in the danger zone even if the hurricane doesn't like make landfall over the city directly?

How big is Ian going to end up being? Charley was a small system so it will probably be bigger but I'm not sure it will be much bigger than your average MH.

Hurricane winds in Charley extended 30 miles... for Ian, they extend 35 miles and are expected to increase.

[us89]

Looking more and more likely that this thing will ultimately make landfall south of Tampa and more towards the Sarasota area. That would save Tampa Bay from some of the worst possible surge, but is probably a worse scenario overall as it would bring even stronger, potentially cat. 3-4 eyewall winds inland (just further south than anticipated) and also bring the core of the heaviest rains right over Tampa. Whatever storm surge doesn’t happen there will be more than made up for by rainfall.

[Sanibel]

That GFS track is bad because it stalls the hard side of the hurricane on Sanibel for a prolonged slow turn...


That extra time over the island will mean concentrated, prolonged winds and surge and will pretty much result in the worst case scenario...


Just had two cups of strong coffee and got to get packin...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tolakram]

Latest Euro 90 hour rainfall predictions.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1574748710998749184

[cheezyWXguy]

RadarScope needs to chill lol

[dukeblue219]

Missing the HDOB points from the eye penetration on the USAF HH...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Watching this unfold just sucks for me... I'm in Houston right now but I live in Tampa (visiting Houston for work). I have no choice but to sit tight and watch this unfold, hoping my stuff is there and dry when I get back.

[SFLcane]

I certainly think the odds are tipping to were this could come in as far south as Fort myers. We shall see

[CronkPSU]

Looking more and more likely that this thing will ultimately make landfall south of Tampa and more towards the Sarasota area. That would save Tampa Bay from some of the worst possible surge, but is probably a worse scenario overall as it would bring even stronger, potentially cat. 3-4 eyewall winds inland (just further south than anticipated) and also bring the core of the heaviest rains right over Tampa. Whatever storm surge doesn’t happen there will be more than made up for by rainfall.

this is a good post and a good reminder that when we say the track saves someone from worst case, it is often to someone else's worst case scenario...easy to forget that this ENTIRE coast is packed and millions will be affected so just because Tampa misses the worst, millions more will suffer more elsewhere in Florida, besides the shear weakening it severely, many people in Florida are about to experience a life changing event

[emeraldislenc]

Just announced at the Governor of Florida's news conference it was announced the NHC just told the Governor that the anticipated landfall would be Venice Florida at an estimated wind of 125.

[underthwx]

Looking more and more likely that this thing will ultimately make landfall south of Tampa and more towards the Sarasota area. That would save Tampa Bay from some of the worst possible surge, but is probably a worse scenario overall as it would bring even stronger, potentially cat. 3-4 eyewall winds inland (just further south than anticipated) and also bring the core of the heaviest rains right over Tampa. Whatever storm surge doesn’t happen there will be more than made up for by rainfall.

Man, I wish all yall the best throughout this event, get out of Ian's way and wait it out...I worry there are those who focus on where the projected path of Ian is track is, and feel that a particular area is clear, and relax. The effects can be far reaching and dangerous...I found that out first hand in 2017, so my thoughts are with all of you.

[Texashawk]

NHC 17 data has now been posted. There is an Advisory/Track window on the top bar. Select that and scroll to latest data. Map will refresh.

Bradenton/Sarasota now. Tampa appears to avoid the devastating surge with the shift south as of 5 am update.

However if the GFS is to be believed then Tampa gets like 40 inches of rain.


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For what it’s worth, pretty much everyone in Houston was incredulous about the 30+ Inches forecasted with Harvey… and that ended up underselling it. Don’t dismiss the chance!

-Steve

[emeraldislenc]

It was also announced in 35 hours approximate landfall

[dukeblue219]

Just announced at the Governor of Florida's news conference it was announced the NHC just told the Governor that the anticipated landfall would be Venice Florida at an estimated wind of 125.

The NHC did not tell the Governor that, and if they did, the Gov is being irresponsible making it sound that definite. Ugh.

Simply put, nobody can know the point of landfall with certainty, nor the intensity, and it definitely won't just affect one town.

[tolakram]

Just announced at the Governor of Florida's news conference it was announced the NHC just told the Governor that the anticipated landfall would be Venice Florida at an estimated wind of 125.

Source it or it did not happen. I doubt the NHC gave an exact landfall location.

[fllawyer]

Just announced at the Governor of Florida's news conference it was announced the NHC just told the Governor that the anticipated landfall would be Venice Florida at an estimated wind of 125.

Source it or it did not happen. I doubt the NHC gave an exact landfall location.

DeSantis just stated that he is being told that NHC will confirm that at 11am advisory. But also giving caution that Tampa not out of the clear.

[fllawyer]

Just announced at the Governor of Florida's news conference it was announced the NHC just told the Governor that the anticipated landfall would be Venice Florida at an estimated wind of 125.

Source it or it did not happen. I doubt the NHC gave an exact landfall location.

DeSantis just stated that he is being told that NHC will confirm that at 11am advisory. But also giving caution that Tampa not out of the clear.

"You are seeing the models push really far east."