ATL: IAN - Models

[IcyTundra]

GFS looks a little further east for sure but is a bit weaker. I wouldn't take the intensity seriously as it initialized too weak.

[eastcoastFL]

Just spent the last few hours pulling save-ables up into the house from the ground-level garage that is tucked under it...We are on 13 foot pilings by code at the ground level...


That leaves just tomorrow to do a triage for things that will leave with me in the cars...


This might be the big one for Sanibel...We might finally get the bad surge-er we've been spared up to now...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Sorry to hear this is effecting you but also glad to hear you’re heading for safety. Hopefully you’ll be spared again and be back in your home soon enough.

[NDG]

0z Euro heading for Sarasota County on this run.

Edit: Meant to type the GFS, long day today.

[caneman]

0z ICON is very similar to the 18z Euro.

The Euro run already looks incorrect and too far East. The Map you posted earlier shows it at 83 after crossing Cuba and its already 83.4.

That is incorrect, the 18z Euro shows it leaving Cuba 83.6 W.
Due north of where it is right now, according to that run it should begin the true due north track soon.

https://i.imgur.com/3PIEDpd.gif

Can you post that image? The image I saw was 83.

[eastcoastFL]

0z Euro heading for Sarasota County on this run.

I’m not seeing it on TT yet

[IcyTundra]

0z Euro heading for Sarasota County on this run.

I’m not seeing it on TT yet

I think he means the GFS.

[NDG]

[BobHarlem]

Sarasota/Venice then looks to stall.

[caneman]

https://i.imgur.com/uy0CtGU.png

GFS?

[eastcoastFL]

Venice
https://i.imgur.com/1R4FcOs.png

Please tell me it doesn’t make the trek cross state like the last two models…

[Meteorcane]

GFS largely stalls south of Tampa (between Venice and Sarasota), would spare Tampa the surge with that track, but would drop tons of rain on its northern side (and still bring strong winds to the Tampa metro)... would be a bad surge situation for the Fort Myers area.

[caneman]

Venice
https://i.imgur.com/1R4FcOs.png

Looks like Sarasota to me

[NDG]

Wow, GFS stalls it right over Sarasota/Bradenton area.

[Teban54]

0z GFS up to 72 hrs

[AxaltaRacing24]

Venice
https://i.imgur.com/1R4FcOs.png

Please tell me it doesn’t make the trek cross state like the last two models…

Not on this run, but the synoptics are hinting at it if there is one more east shift.

[caneman]

Wow, GFS stalls it right over Sarasota/Bradenton area.

And St. PETE - Tampa

[Meteorcane]

With this GFS solution the Tampa area would trade the surge for prodigious rainfall (as precipitation becomes displaced to the north as the system is sheared), swath of 30-45 inch totals.

[caneman]

With this GFS solution the Tampa area would trade the surge for prodigious rainfall (as precipitation becomes displaced to the north as the system is sheared), swath of 30-45 inch totals.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022092700/081/qpf_acc.us_se.png

Holy Cow! Biblical proportions.

[NDG]

24 hr loop, it barely moves it after making landfall.

[Blown Away]

Venice
https://i.imgur.com/1R4FcOs.png

Please tell me it doesn’t make the trek cross state like the last two models…

Not on this run, but the synoptics are hinting at it if there is one more east shift.

I think next GFS run it’s more progressive to the NE, Ian is not hanging around Bradenton in 4 days. JMHO