ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Emerging off of Cuba with an excellent structure.
https://i.imgur.com/SQI6uRc.jpg

I'm now very concerned about RI until landfall. I thought it was highly unlikely, but now that Ian's track has shifted further east and it didn't take much of a hit from its Cuba landfall, it has become a very real possibility. It might not get nearly as much shear with this track as it would've if it went north of Tampa towards the panhandle. Also, SSTs/MPI are nuclear in Ian's path. Let's hope that shear kicks in sooner than later.
https://i.imgur.com/zJ4AjEr.png
https://i.imgur.com/4TrraX2.png

This unfortunately does not appear to be the case because the wind shear appears to be favorable directionally.

Unless I'm mistaken, Wxman57 discussed the shear that will affect Ian, and weaken it somewhat upon its approach to land...this is an excerpt from the 5am NHC discussion..."By 24
to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier
mid-level air are likely to result in some gradual weakening." By favorable wind shear, do you mean favorable because it will weaken Ian somewhat?....Just to be clear Ice, thanks!

The direction of the wind shear is currently favorable for more intensification because the storm is moving in the same direction as the shear, but the direction will eventually change in the next 48-72 hours to unfavorable direction combined with dry air behind this cold front.

[dukeblue219]

Let's restrict what we put here to emergency management types and not politicians, they can misspeak without realizing it.

.

I watched the entire conference, it was more than the governor speaking, and it was very clear that both the FEM director and the governor have been in close contact with the NHC. They both gave the usual mentions of forecast uncertainty and it could/will affect a large area of the state.

That's very different than the way it was posted on here at first, that the Governor had "accounced" the location and strength of landfall.

[Beef Stew]

Remarkable structure for a storm that just spent the better part of 8 hours over land. I suspect that there’ll be a short pause while Ian stabilizes itself back over water and then we’ll be right back to RI.

[Hurricaneman]

This has moved offshore Cuba by the looks of it

[GCANE]

Significant Tornado Parameter increasing in the Keys.
Now at 2.

[Patrick99]

I remember GCANE beating the drum about the high CAPE air available to Irma in the FL Straits. Scared me and was probably 100% correct.

[MJGarrison]

Yesterdays radar?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[RevanTheJedi96]

I keep seeing this heading more NNE. Recon fixes are confirming this

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec25e41ad8bdad9309ada4dd0f333a4e284991748ef080e1af8d3fc6a3f1f958.png

With how fast pressure was rising over land, Ian might have actually been in the lower 940s as at least a high-end Cat 3, possibly Cat 4, at Cuba landfall.

That would be insane as it was "only" 90 kts at 11pm, and recon supported 95 kts at ~12am. Explosive intensification just before landfall likely happened.

If that's the case now that it's leaving Cuba, does that intensification resume?

[SFLcane]

Large windfield...

 https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1574754619451998209

[GCANE]

Convergence along the trough is actually helping to increase CAPE

[Sanibel]

This is Charley after coming back from the Pet Cemetery IMO...


You can see the trough on Water Vapor Imagery...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Kazmit]

The eye looks as clear as it has ever been.

[GCANE]

I remember GCANE beating the drum about the high CAPE air available to Irma in the FL Straits. Scared me and was probably 100% correct.

I think that was a lot higher CAPE then. Maybe around 5000.

[eastcoastFL]

I remember GCANE beating the drum about the high CAPE air available to Irma in the FL Straits. Scared me and was probably 100% correct.

Me too. He’s really good with this stuff. I’m always looking out for his analysis regarding CAPE

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder if the windfield is going to expand after interaction with Cuba as some models suggested.

[MGC]

Radar out of Key West indicates a NNE movement. Could be a wobble or a trend. Radar eye is half way into the Gulf.....MGC

[eastcoastFL]

This is Charley after coming back from the Pet Cemetery IMO...


You can see the trough on Water Vapor Imagery...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

It’s kinda like Charlie on steroids. Similar path but much bigger and better organized as it crossed Cuba.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BlakeMathews08/status/1574751648353746945

[GCANE]

Dry slot between two feeder bands approaching west end of the Keys.
Good setup for tornadoes / water spouts

[eastcoastFL]

https://twitter.com/BlakeMathews08/status/1574751648353746945?s=20&t=DDaJtK7oqXAXkNRo3EFUSQ

Looks like it’s NNE a little in that frame but funny movements do happen over land. Hopefully it doesn’t continue this motion over water.