ATL: IAN - Models

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF… 72 hrs moving NE over Florida

[chris_fit]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/76y2BXsd/86-A9-B617-5-B31-4-E8-F-A4-F4-67-BAD326-A870.jpg [/url]
00z ECMWF… 48 hrs landfall just N of Sanibel

Looks more N than Sanibel?

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF… Another E shift… Landfall S of Tampa

[Teban54]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/0N9Tv1BC/ec-fast-ow850-seus-fh0-96.gif [/url]

00z ECMWF… Another E shift… Landfall S of Tampa

The 48 hrs landfall location is actually a tiny bit NW of 18z.

[Bocadude85]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/0N9Tv1BC/ec-fast-ow850-seus-fh0-96.gif [/url]

00z ECMWF… Another E shift… Landfall S of Tampa

The 48 hrs landfall location is actually a tiny bit NW of 18z.

Looking at the detailed 0z Euro plot Ian looks to make landfall in between Venice and Sarasota, Captiva/Sanibel look to get part of the eyewall as Ian moves NE just offshore

[Bocadude85]

6z TVCN is south of Tampa, down around Sarasota/Bradenton.

[LarryWx]

Ian has made it to at least 83.7 W. The 0Z UKMET made it as far west as only 83.4. This makes me think that this run's track is likely too far SE with its landfall just north of Ft. Myers.

[Bocadude85]

6z ICON has landfall around Port Charlotte/Sanibel Island

[BobHarlem]

Just north or over Sanibel on 6z Icon.

[NDG]

Time for me to get back to Orlando this AM from Ft Lauderdale, prep my house and hunker down.

[NDG]

Wow, 06z GFS shifted well south of Tampa Bay, looks like.

[Bocadude85]

Wow, 06z GFS shifted well south of Tampa Bay, looks like.

Yup into Englewood/Charlotte Harbor

[NDG]

Big shift to the south of Tampa by the latest GFS.

[kevin]

06z GFS:

[NDG]

After stalling near Port Charlotte for nearly 36 hrs is finally on the move.

[caneman]

Seems to be the norm. A system has Tampa Bay in the bullseye for several days aka Charley and Irma and jogs to the right in the last day or two. I don't think it got far enough West to hit Tampa Bay. Once a storm starts eastward very rarely would it come back westward. PORT Charlotte- Sarasota combined with history seems a good bet. Amy further Eastward based on the last gfs frame we (pinellas county) may end up in a dry slot aka Charley. Tracking radar, a slight East of North motion seems in place.

[johngaltfla]

GFS is coming up with an almost Donna like solution. We're going to need one more run to sell me on that one. It's the UKMET and Euro's turn to confirm a new trend.

[Nimbus]

6z TVCN is south of Tampa, down around Sarasota/Bradenton.

TVCN is a consensus model, NHC mentioned it in the 5 AM update.
Last night I saw the HMON flip from south of Tallahassee to the Atlantic headed for south Carolina.

If you have 3 members of a consensus model and they vary widely it isn't a forecast tool.

Lets say there is a 33% chance Ian powers up and his outflow overcomes the trough so he tracks for the big bend area.

Now there may also be a 33% chance that the trough digs fast and strong undercutting Ians CDO so that he limps east over Sarasota across the state of Florida to the Atlantic.

And that leaves a 33% chance that the trough remnants will potentially steer the perfect storm towards Tampa bay area between the two outliers.

Now since the consensus follows the middle track towards Tampa there is actually only a 33% chance of verifying.

NHC really can't do much better forecasting trough interactions out beyond 24 hours and they repeated this in the 5 AM update.

"There continues to be larger-than-normal
spread in the track guidance by 36-48 hours, however the trend in
the global models has been more southward and eastward over the
last cycle or two."

[caneman]

6z TVCN is south of Tampa, down around Sarasota/Bradenton.

TVCN is a consensus model, NHC mentioned it in the 5 AM update.
Last night I saw the HMON flip from south of Tallahassee to the Atlantic headed for south Carolina.

If you have 3 members of a consensus model and they vary widely it isn't a forecast tool.

Lets say there is a 33% chance Ian powers up and his outflow overcomes the trough so he tracks for the big bend area.

Now there may also be a 33% chance that the trough digs fast and strong undercutting Ians CDO so that he limps east over Sarasota across the state of Florida to the Atlantic.

And that leaves a 33% chance that the trough remnants will potentially steer the perfect storm towards Tampa bay area between the two outliers.

Now since the consensus follows the middle track towards Tampa there is actually only a 33% chance of verifying.

NHC really can't do much better forecasting trough interactions out beyond 24 hours and they repeated this in the 5 AM update.

"There continues to be larger-than-normal
spread in the track guidance by 36-48 hours, however the trend in
the global models has been more southward and eastward over the
last cycle or two."

Nice explanation. Good job

[NDG]

Crazy amounts of rain the latest 06z GFS forecasts because it shows Ian stalling for 36 hrs, 40"+ in parts of Manatee County.
Both the GFS and Euro have been persistent that the NW quadrant of Ian will have the heaviest amount of rain because of shear and dry air wrapping around the south side of the circulation.
Good news storm surge wise for Tampa Bay but bad news for possibly getting the heaviest amount of rain for Ian.