ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Patrick99]

https://twitter.com/BlakeMathews08/status/1574751648353746945?s=20&t=DDaJtK7oqXAXkNRo3EFUSQ

Looks like it’s NNE a little in that frame but funny movements do happen over land. Hopefully it doesn’t continue this motion over water.

Oh i think its surely got some eastward component right now.

I think so, I think the biggest question now other than intensity is just "how much" eastern component for how long

[Kazmit]

Is recon not reporting pressure or is the instrument not working?

[TheHurricaneGod]

MIGHT be seeing a more ENE/NE component now. At least temporarily. I am looking at the mesoscale 1-minute floater. Last 30 minutes seem to be more ENE.

[skyline385]

Looks like we have lighting in the eyewall




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[Iceresistance]

Is recon not reporting pressure or is the instrument not working?

Not reporting pressure at all, it did have an unflagged 98 knots SMFR from the first attempted pass.

[SFLcane]

Trof certainly digging you can see it on WV Ian will not be able to go much further north soon without being kicked out.

[Blown Away]

[cycloneye]

Is recon not reporting pressure or is the instrument not working?

Not working for now. Let's see if they release a VDM.

[Patrick99]

This is Charley after coming back from the Pet Cemetery IMO...


You can see the trough on Water Vapor Imagery...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Yes, that is my concern/worry as well. Also memories of Irene in 1999, which was supposed to hit the SW FL coast and ride straight up the spine of the state. Instead, she moved NNE and NE and exited the state right over my home in Jupiter.

Yeah, I'm not saying it will happen, but I too am traumatized by Irene. We didn't even get a day off from work for that because it "wasn't supposed to hit." Had to drive home from work that afternoon in some of the worst driving conditions I've ever seen.

[skyline385]

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[Michele B]

This unfortunately does not appear to be the case because the wind shear appears to be favorable directionally.

Unless I'm mistaken, Wxman57 discussed the shear that will affect Ian, and weaken it somewhat upon its approach to land...this is an excerpt from the 5am NHC discussion..."By 24
to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier
mid-level air are likely to result in some gradual weakening." By favorable wind shear, do you mean favorable because it will weaken Ian somewhat?....Just to be clear Ice, thanks!

The direction of the wind shear is currently favorable for more intensification because the storm is moving in the same direction as the shear, but the direction will eventually change in the next 48-72 hours to unfavorable direction combined with dry air behind this cold front.

I've been wondering about this too.

I know the placement of the front and its steering currents were major considerations when we were trying to figure all this out. Now, we've not heard anymore about where the front is, where it's going to be, and how much it will continue to "steer" the storm.

[wx98]

With the way this is trying to turn NNE, I think we need to be thinking about and anticipating landfall as far south as Naples/Cape Coral.

[aspen]

Looks like we have lighting in the eyewall

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220927/97555c24577da0b7f91861bc03bb2d7d.gif


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Recon reported a spike in hurricane-force FL winds in those NE bands, but I don’t think it can counted as a true double wind maxima because they don’t wrap around the core. It could be difficult for a secondary eyewall to form because of proximity to Cuba and the flow from the SW.

[dpep4]

I believe all of you that heard it. Do you believe that's the information the NHC wanted out there? The same organization that is emphatic about not following the line? Knowing the past NHC accuracy is that the correct message to spread and if not, why spread it?

Seems to happen with most storms, I've heard some erroneous and alarming soundbytes on the tube before, that just ain't so...I find it disturbing to be honest, sends the wrong message...like you say Tolakram, stick with direct info from the NHC, and of course, 2K....

I missed it. What did the governor say?

He and his emergency mgmt director said what the NHC told them:

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/hurricane-ian-tracker-florida-forecast-path-cuba-2022-09-27/

"The National Hurricane Center is now predicting that landfall will be Venice in 35 hours, at 125 mph ... making it a major, Category 3, landfalling hurricane," Kevin Guthrie, director for the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said at a press conference Tuesday morning.

"It's important to say that Tampa Bay region, you are not out of the woods yet. There is still going to be a storm surge event in the Tampa Bay region," Guthrie said. "You need to continue to heed the warnings that are in place for Pinellas, Tampa, Manatee, Hillsborough. Do not return yet if you have evacuated."

Edit: Here's the video of the press conference:

[Youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAKcbwYur3g[/Youtube]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAKcbwYur3g

[Iceresistance]

Unless I'm mistaken, Wxman57 discussed the shear that will affect Ian, and weaken it somewhat upon its approach to land...this is an excerpt from the 5am NHC discussion..."By 24
to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier
mid-level air are likely to result in some gradual weakening." By favorable wind shear, do you mean favorable because it will weaken Ian somewhat?....Just to be clear Ice, thanks!

The direction of the wind shear is currently favorable for more intensification because the storm is moving in the same direction as the shear, but the direction will eventually change in the next 48-72 hours to unfavorable direction combined with dry air behind this cold front.

I've been wondering about this too.

I know the placement of the front and its steering currents were major considerations when we were trying to figure all this out. Now, we've not heard anymore about where the front is, where it's going to be, and how much it will continue to "steer" the storm.

Per WPC, the cold front from near Jacksonville to north and east of Gainesville.

[Javlin]

The cloud structure along with the movement seems to indicate the NE movement starts earlier than later.

[Iceresistance]

Recon has confirmed that the Center of Ian is now in the GoM


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/recon_AF302-2109A-IAN_zoom.png

[underthwx]

Unless I'm mistaken, Wxman57 discussed the shear that will affect Ian, and weaken it somewhat upon its approach to land...this is an excerpt from the 5am NHC discussion..."By 24
to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier
mid-level air are likely to result in some gradual weakening." By favorable wind shear, do you mean favorable because it will weaken Ian somewhat?....Just to be clear Ice, thanks!

The direction of the wind shear is currently favorable for more intensification because the storm is moving in the same direction as the shear, but the direction will eventually change in the next 48-72 hours to unfavorable direction combined with dry air behind this cold front.

I've been wondering about this too.

I know the placement of the front and its steering currents were major considerations when we were trying to figure all this out. Now, we've not heard anymore about where the front is, where it's going to be, and how much it will continue to "steer" the storm.

I understand there are multiple factors regarding the steering mechanisms with Ian, from reading NHC discussions, and all the great info right here on 2K...to me, this is a complex setup with Ian, and I too am anxious to learn more about the front, and it's significance in the steering of Ian...

[wx98]

Per recon this is likely down to a Cat 1 or low end Cat 2. I don’t expect NHC to drop it near that low in operational advisories. Now we have to see if it truly reintensifies or if it gets stuck in the loop of dropping pressure and expanding wind field.

[Blown Away]

I'm guessing the upcoming 11sm Disco will reveal this potential E shift...