ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

It’s definitely moving NNE but not as northeast as some are saying, some of the more perceived NE movement is the clearing of the eye

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1574772506212311043

[Kazmit]

Per recon this is likely down to a Cat 1 or low end Cat 2. I don’t expect NHC to drop it near that low in operational advisories. Now we have to see if it truly reintensifies or if it gets stuck in the loop of dropping pressure and expanding wind field.

No cat 1 has that satellite appearance. The mountains are likely preventing the winds that would occur over water.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the interaction with Cuba managed to knock down the winds some, but that structure still looks fantastic and this will probably bomb to a Cat 4 later today or overnight unfortunately

[blp]

Credit to Jonah Heinl on another board posting this. I don't know if this is accurate.

[Jelmergraaff]

Per recon this is likely down to a Cat 1 or low end Cat 2. I don’t expect NHC to drop it near that low in operational advisories. Now we have to see if it truly reintensifies or if it gets stuck in the loop of dropping pressure and expanding wind field.

Wouldn't personally put this at a Cat 1. There was a SFMR of 95kt, which is borderline Cat 2/Cat 3. Dropsonde in NE eyewall showed 86kt at the surface with 103kt at some 200m height. My best estimate right now would be around 95kt/100kt.

[Blown Away]

Amazing this NE movement, little burst of acceleration in last few frames.

[Kingarabian]

Second example this year that Dvorak can be misleading. Still a formidable system with a lot of warm water ahead of it.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/Mcooqnp.gif
Amazing this NE movement, little burst of acceleration in last few frames.

Yea we will have to see if its a wobble but there is certainly some eastern component right now.

[Teban54]

Clearing out the eye as soon as it could.

[Iceresistance]

ADT is at 6.3

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2022 Time : 142020 UTC
Lat : 23:01:12 N Lon : 83:27:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 937mb / 122kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

It's too high, but the structure of this system is impressive.

[skyline385]

Very slightly east of the cone so far





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[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/Mcooqnp.gif
Amazing this NE movement, little burst of acceleration in last few frames.

Yea we will have to see if its a wobble but there is certainly some eastern component right now.

I'm sure it will adjust back to @N, but this has been going on since I got to work 4 hours ago? 4 hours is not a wobble IMO.

[GCANE]

Rain rate up to 70 mm/hr now

[Jelmergraaff]

11 AM advisory says 100kt and a minimum pressure of 963 mb. Would also have been my estimate, although I would've put the pressure a bit lower perhaps.

[Hurricaneman]

My thoughts are the NE motion is land friction and should resume a N to NNE motion

[Canelaw99]

https://i.imgur.com/Mcooqnp.gif
Amazing this NE movement, little burst of acceleration in last few frames.

Obviously noone can say with certainty, but what are the chances it stays on this general NE looking heading and comes in way south?

[Nimbus]

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1574772506212311043?s=20&t=y8uEDGZomsUAmlMiFGuLKg

This started with the trough evolution several people spotted yesterday afternoon.
There was shear from the west digging down over NOLA.
If they are flying the special upper air analysis flights over northern GOM maybe we will get some solid data.

[longhorn2004]

Trof certainly digging you can see it on WV Ian will not be able to go much further north soon without being kicked out.

https://i.postimg.cc/V6zxcQTh/trof.png

Impressive. One would think Ian being sucking in drier air from the front.

[JPmia]

"The latest
forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing
landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if
the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance." from NHC 11am Discussion.