ATL: IAN - Models

[MetsIslesNoles]

The 12Z GFS ensembles mean looks to be right through the Tampa area. Notice the initial NNE movement then a bend N to NNW with a stall as it approaches the coast at the end by many of the ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/jqnFFfrL/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh0-96.gif

What site can I go to for that graphic?

[cheezyWXguy]

Largest influence on Charley's path near landfall on approach to west FL coast was as such - https://www.lakeeriewx.com/CaseStudies/HurricaneCharley/Charley'sTurn.gif ...lest we forget

Ian's modeled setup is =

GFS - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022092706&fh=24

Euro = https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022092706&fh=24

Wed NCEP analysis https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94fndfd_init_2022092700.gif

I'd say they were very similar in setup - however the placement of Ian and current front differs and more importantly Ian's size ( mass) and the strength of the front is different. Remains to be seen but east shifts seem plausible and that puts any movement NW downstream in question UKMET has been onto something for quite a few runs. The fluid dynamics are key in how this is handled by each model.

Hey fellow Southport watcher. If you haven't been using it yet, I want to point out the ICON model. It has been the best performing of the 3 so far, and was picking up the eastward turn, and exit from east coast of Florida a couple days ago. The Euro and GFS have been following it this entire storm.

Yep been watching the ICON and UKMET for days and wondering what they were seeing. AS far as performance, I guess it depends on the range. UKMET has not been as consistently accurate with tracks and hurricanes the past few years. I don't make decisions based on outliers though when reliable models and HNC track differs. ICON has been interesting to watch this year

Agreed, in my opinion the icon is the dark horse of this storm. The ukmet may ultimately be correct on Florida landfall location, but it seems for all the wrong reasons. Underdoing the intensity might be chalked up to resolution, but it’s handling south of Cuba was laughable, being even further west than the gfs while Ian was south of Jamaica.

[gatorcane]

12 HWRF with a slight south shift but heading for Tampa area. Notice how it ever so slightly turns it more N for a bit from NNE as it approaches the coast:

[Jevo]

Wow i just noticed how far south the UKMET is...

Can graphic be posted?

[tronbunny]

This is my local go-to
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

The 12Z GFS ensembles mean looks to be right through the Tampa area. Notice the initial NNE movement then a bend N to NNW with a stall as it approaches the coast at the end by many of the ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/jqnFFfrL/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh0-96.gif

What site can I go to for that graphic?

[tolakram]

The 12Z GFS ensembles mean looks to be right through the Tampa area. Notice the initial NNE movement then a bend N to NNW with a stall as it approaches the coast at the end by many of the ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/jqnFFfrL/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh0-96.gif

What site can I go to for that graphic?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=watl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2022092712&fh=24

[tolakram]

UKMET graphics slowly coming in here: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2022092712/848-w-267-n/sea-level-pressure/20220927-2000z.html

[gatorcane]

Looks at this new wrinkle with the HWRF. Not only does it barely landfall in PInellas scraping the coast about the same place as before but look how it doesn’t actually move it NE inland now as it parallels the coast.

[Meteorcane]

I think the south of Tampa track looks a little more confident at this point, wouldn't go so far as to say locked in, but everything from the near term motion of the system to the consensus of the latest models would point to it (how far south not sure, could be Sarasota, could be Fort Myers). What is not certain is will the system stall near landfall, or potentially make it all the way to the Atlantic before the trough loses influence and its drifts back north... if the latter we could see it strengthen a bit before a second landfall on the SE coast (as depicted by the ICON/UKMET).

[SFLcane]

South Florida look out!

[robbielyn]

I think the south of Tampa track looks a little more confident at this point, wouldn't go so far as to say locked in, but everything from the near term motion of the system to the consensus of the latest models would point to it (how far south not sure, could be Sarasota, could be Fort Myers). What is not certain is will the system stall near landfall, or potentially make it all the way to the Atlantic before the trough loses influence and its drifts back north... if the latter we could see it strengthen a bit before a second landfall on the SE coast (as depicted by the ICON/UKMET).

that model shows it traveling in a more northerly motion from cuba when it seems to be moving in a more easterly direction now.

[sweetpea]

Looks at this new wrinkle with the HWRF. Not only does it barely landfall in PInellas scraping the coast about the same place as before but look how it doesn’t actually move it NE inland now as it parallels the coast.

https://i.postimg.cc/Px3XSF0p/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-fh0-51.gif

I have been watching this, I noticed the GEFS ensembles show something similar. I am under a tropical storm watch, I live about 35 miles south of Tallahassee, a few miles from the gulf. Just got done putting some things away in my yard, just in case. This storm has definitely kept everyone on their toes! Hope everyone stays safe!

[TallahasseeMan]

The HWRF, which initializes Ian's strength better than the globals, continues to be a north outlier. Could this be because a stronger storm in this instance would travel in a more poleward direction?

[SFLcane]

[tolakram]

UKMET 12Z

[fci]

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL to Melbourne, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56
0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60
1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60
0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42
1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44
0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53
1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57
0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29
0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

That’s a much scarier track for those of us on the East Coast, even Palm Beach County.
“Closest to” says just 77 miles here in Boynton/Lake Worth.

[eastcoastFL]

Thankfully no models predicting CAT 5

[Beachside]

12Z UKMET furthest SE track yet with landfall only 20 miles north of Naples/20 miles south of Ft. Myers, goes across FL to Melbourne, and then 2nd landfall Charleston:

HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2022 0 22.5N 83.5W 979 56
0000UTC 28.09.2022 12 24.5N 83.2W 977 60
1200UTC 28.09.2022 24 25.9N 82.3W 976 60
0000UTC 29.09.2022 36 27.0N 81.4W 989 42
1200UTC 29.09.2022 48 28.1N 80.6W 992 44
0000UTC 30.09.2022 60 29.2N 79.9W 989 53
1200UTC 30.09.2022 72 30.5N 79.9W 985 57
0000UTC 01.10.2022 84 33.0N 80.0W 985 40
1200UTC 01.10.2022 96 34.9N 81.4W 999 29
0000UTC 02.10.2022 108 36.3N 81.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 02.10.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING

That’s a much scarier track for those of us on the East Coast, even Palm Beach County.
“Closest to” says just 77 miles here in Boynton/Lake Worth.

At least it is only showing low end CAT2

[CronkPSU]

any 12z Euro updates yet?

[RedRiverRefuge]

Ignorant ? For the group. Is there ever a time near landfall that you stop watching global models (GFS/Euro) and refer instead to mesoscale such as HRRR etc or does the mesoscale not have all necessary data parameters to determine path and intensity. Thanks.