ATL: IAN - Models

[Meteorcane]

any 12z Euro updates yet?

landfalls near Englewood

[SFLcane]

any 12z Euro updates yet?

Yes into Fort Myers!!

UKMET not so crazy now lol.

[Poonwalker]

Much better news for Tampa in terms of surge but the cone is something we have to stay vigilant to. Ukmet is an outlier in terms of how it continues the NE track across the state showing the trough picking the storm up. The others show a collapse in steering and slow poleward progression late in the forecast. The farther south this hits the stronger the storm will be at landfall. Unfortunately this is really bad news for Port Charlotte, Naples, and Ft Myers. Obviously going to be massive surge damage there.

[Full8s]

Please forgive my relative ignorance, but can someone explain why HWRF still likes Tampa Bay for Thursday when others are making a much quicker right turn? Thanks.

[SFLcane]

[Bimms]

I am by no means a professional, I enjoy reading the posts here and the models and the reading the posts in the discussion threads as well, but please excuse my ignorance with this, but I've been watching these models and reading and watching the news, but why (to me at least) does the storm look like it's going to hit south of Tampa, but cross over into the extremely highly populated areas of PBC, Broward, and Dade counties in SoFlo?? is anybody else seeing that, again I admit my ignorance with this, but it looks to me as if that is a possibility.

[Meteorcane]

Ignorant ? For the group. Is there ever a time near landfall that you stop watching global models (GFS/Euro) and refer instead to mesoscale such as HRRR etc or does the mesoscale not have all necessary data parameters to determine path and intensity. Thanks.

Good question... the convective-allowing models will typically struggle with tropical cyclones because they can't really handle the core dynamics well at all (that is why you will see ridiculous minimum pressures and such from the HRRR/NAM-nest etc.) and once the low-lvl wind fields get "messed up" by the unrealistic pressure gradient many other aspects of their forecast get wonky near the storm in a sort of feedback loop. That being said they can do decent with storms once they begin to transition extratropical and can often provide good QPF and peak gust forecasts (see Ida's remnants, or even Isaias a few years ago when it got to higher latitudes). You can also have boundary problems caused by the fact that the higher-res models have smaller domains, but this because less of an issue the closer in time you get to the event.

[SFLcane]

That NHC track coming south folks!

[skyline385]

That NHC track coming south folks!

We are going to be in the cone tomorrow at this rate lol


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[SFLcane]

That NHC track coming south folks!

We are going to be in the cone tomorrow at this rate lol


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Yup, unreal to see this unfold. I am actually at work though tomorrow i am working from home. If have power.

[jdray]

Looks at this new wrinkle with the HWRF. Not only does it barely landfall in PInellas scraping the coast about the same place as before but look how it doesn’t actually move it NE inland now as it parallels the coast.

https://i.postimg.cc/Px3XSF0p/hwrf-mslp-wind-09-L-fh0-51.gif

That is an interesting wrinkle to throw in on the models. Some models still want to skirt the west coast, not many though.
Break out the windshield wipers now, the forecast is going to keep bouncing.

[skyline385]

Here’s the 12Z Euro landfall




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[eastcoastFL]

I am by no means a professional, I enjoy reading the posts here and the models and the reading the posts in the discussion threads as well, but please excuse my ignorance with this, but I've been watching these models and reading and watching the news, but why (to me at least) does the storm look like it's going to hit south of Tampa, but cross over into the extremely highly populated areas of PBC, Broward, and Dade counties in SoFlo?? is anybody else seeing that, again I admit my ignorance with this, but it looks to me as if that is a possibility.

I think it would have to move almost due east for that to happen and that doesn’t appear to be in the cards. It’s most likely to move NNE to NE or due N after landfall.

[RedRiverRefuge]

Ignorant ? For the group. Is there ever a time near landfall that you stop watching global models (GFS/Euro) and refer instead to mesoscale such as HRRR etc or does the mesoscale not have all necessary data parameters to determine path and intensity. Thanks.

Good question... the convective-allowing models will typically struggle with tropical cyclones because they can't really handle the core dynamics well at all (that is why you will see ridiculous minimum pressures and such from the HRRR/NAM-nest etc.) and once the low-lvl wind fields get "messed up" by the unrealistic pressure gradient many other aspects of their forecast get wonky near the storm in a sort of feedback loop. That being said they can do decent with storms once they begin to transition extratropical and can often provide good QPF and peak gust forecasts (see Ida's remnants, or even Isaias a few years ago when it got to higher latitudes). You can also have boundary problems caused by the fact that the higher-res models have smaller domains, but this because less of an issue the closer in time you get to the event.

Excellent explanation… thanks!

[rwfromkansas]

Poor Sanibel. Many great times there as a kid. Charley v. 2.0.

[jlauderdal]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/k4cjDHVZ/ecm.png

You will have a hurricane warning sooner rather than later if this continues, the trend is not your friend at all.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[hurricaneCW]

Landfall likely by tomorrow afternoon. Today's really the last day to prepare

[tolakram]

As a reminder here is the observed model track skill from last year. We're at about 36 hours out.

[tolakram]

Here is the error for Ian so far

AVNO is GFS



source: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/