ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Lightning48]

Quick question: A Baynews9 meteorologist came on and mentioned Ian was moving in a NE direction and this will significantly change the track. I just saw the NHC 12 pm update and it’s says it’s moving North- Anybody able to remedy this confusion?

[GCANE]

Impressive Major Hurricane!

Do I spy a pronounced stadium effect forming on that eyewall?

This is going to look really good later this afternoon as the sun moves to the west.
Should get some nice pics from recon

[johngaltfla]

Annnnnddddd I just passed the people who decided "oh crap I'd better evacuate" on the roads. Folks, it's going to be a long night for some of you, be careful out there.

[galaxy401]

Based on its very impressive visible imagery and pressure in the 940s over land, I do think Ian reached Category 4 at landfall on Cuba.

[THC_Scientist]

Once again, NHC track moved right on top of mine. With SW-W sheared storms in the Gulf, they almost always move more quickly and turn sharper east than predicted. I have it inland in the Sarasota-Venice area around sunset tomorrow (always at night). Could be south of Venice. The farther south it tracks, the stronger it will remain up to landfall. SLOSH indicates 12-14 ft where the center meets the coast. Wouldn't be anything into Tampa Bay.

Long time lurker, first post. Always have enjoyed your analysis and once again you’ve nailed it. I’m in zone A in Pinellas county and feel better about riding out the storm.

[cycloneye]

Pressure down to 961 mbs. Eye is closed.

832
URNT12 KNHC 271612
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022
A. 27/15:46:30Z
B. 23.13 deg N 083.47 deg W
C. 700 mb 2746 m
D. 961 mb
E. 115 deg 4 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C19
H. 92 kt
I. 316 deg 8 nm 15:44:00Z
J. 041 deg 82 kt
K. 315 deg 10 nm 15:43:30Z
L. 82 kt
M. 098 deg 7 nm 15:49:00Z
N. 186 deg 107 kt
O. 087 deg 15 nm 15:51:00Z
P. 7 C / 3035 m
Q. 17 C / 3052 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1.25 nm
U. AF302 2109A IAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 107 KT 087 / 15 NM 15:51:00Z
;

[Chemmers]

the amount off lighting round the eye is incredible, unfortunately cant rule out a high end cat 4 or 5 at some point now

[ScottNAtlanta]

I am going to take a moment and pray for the safety and well being of everyone in the path of this storm and especially those that post regularly that are facing a very scary unknown. It's something I can do to let people know I am thinking of them in my prayers.

[Iceresistance]

Recon has found 961 mb, Ian is getting stronger again.

[underthwx]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...12 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE OF IAN...

Radar imagery from Key West shows that the center of Ian is located
over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hourly updates of Ian's
position will continue as long as the eye is easily trackable by
land-based radar.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 83.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Reinhart

[Lightning48]

Quick question: A Baynews9 meteorologist came on and mentioned Ian was moving in a NE direction and this will significantly change the track. I just saw the NHC 12 pm update and it’s says it’s moving North- Anybody able to remedy this confusion?

[Sciencerocks]

[SFLcane]

My current thinking is the UKMET nailed this one asleast it sure looks that way right now I think this will come into the Fort Myers area or a tad north.

[Fancy1001]

I just got up and saw the refreshed IR loop...did Ian seriously just keep intensifying and open its eye while going over Cuba???

Keep intensifying no, open it’s eye yes.

[skyline385]

deleted


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Fancy1001]

I am going to take a moment and pray for the safety and well being of everyone in the path of this storm and especially those that post regularly that are facing a very scary unknown. It's something I can do to let people know I am thinking of them in my prayers.

Prayer will do nothing, only action will save people.

[underthwx]

I am going to take a moment and pray for the safety and well being of everyone in the path of this storm and especially those that post regularly that are facing a very scary unknown. It's something I can do to let people know I am thinking of them in my prayers.

I will join you Scott....that's pretty cool of you...

[psyclone]

Quick question: A Baynews9 meteorologist came on and mentioned Ian was moving in a NE direction and this will significantly change the track. I just saw the NHC 12 pm update and it’s says it’s moving North- Anybody able to remedy this confusion?

It's clearly ticking east of north at a longitude that will carry it east of Tampa bay should that continue. at 83.5 longitude it does not need much easterly component to carry it inland a good bit south of here. This drastically increases the threat to southwest florida (on a shortened timeline) and reduce it up here. very grave threat to SW FL now.

[Iceresistance]

I am going to take a moment and pray for the safety and well being of everyone in the path of this storm and especially those that post regularly that are facing a very scary unknown. It's something I can do to let people know I am thinking of them in my prayers.

Prayer will do nothing, only action will save people.

For those who can't come to help, all you can do is pray. That is what James Spann said during the April 27th, 2011 Super Outbreak.

(Sorry for being OT Mods and Admins )

[aspen]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/710/Uh5yav.gif

I hate to say it, but this reminds me of Dorian. The incredible eyewall lightning, the incredibly clear eye, the impressive microwave presentation…this is turning into an absolute monster.