ATL: IAN - Models

[NDG]

The model has done well the last few days sniffing out this east trend, could have the best handle on the steering flow.

This is the key. For THIS storm rather than for all storms, the UKMET has been the best by a good margin. In general, it has done poorly in many cases just as has been the case for other models. But it has been stellar for Ian. For the last 11 runs dating back to the 0Z of Sunday, it has been south of Tampa. No other model has been close to doing that. The other models have been playing catchup. The UKMET has been ahead of these others for nearly 3 days!

You can see the current model verification at

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/t ... /al092022/

GFS has been the best upto 48 hours followed by (weirdly enough) CMC with UKMET in second for 72 & 96 hours. Think folks are just noticing the UKMET more because it was always east biased and the storm is trending east now.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220927/943cf1ceb85b7ab6ef34a83d7770bc7b.jpg


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Where the GFS did well was after Ian formed in staying in a low latitude in the central Caribbean and not tracking near Jamaica and over or east of Grand Cayman like the Euro initially had it. But the GFS did horrible with how deep the trough actually dug, so it was way off in the GOM in the longer range.
Also the GFS was too aggressive initially in developing Ian too soon.
Icon was the first one to sniff development in the central Caribbean when the TW was well east of the Windward Islands.

[Jr0d]

Already gusting over 50mph in Key West. No hurricane warning, "just" a TS warning.

I expect close approach to be around 2am and will almost certainly see hurricane gusts. When the wind shifts Wednesday, the surge will start coming in.

Very surprised no hurricane warning was been issued for us. They may be forced to put one out when surface obs show hurricane force winds.

[La Sirena]

Not to sound the alarm, but- should these faster, southeastern trends continue, there would be a serious risk of coastal flooding along the northern coast of FL through GA and SC down the road.

Agreed. And with the latest euro crossing Florida and shooting out the other side it could be bad news.

[skyline385]

This is the key. For THIS storm rather than for all storms, the UKMET has been the best by a good margin. In general, it has done poorly in many cases just as has been the case for other models. But it has been stellar for Ian. For the last 11 runs dating back to the 0Z of Sunday, it has been south of Tampa. No other model has been close to doing that. The other models have been playing catchup. The UKMET has been ahead of these others for nearly 3 days!

You can see the current model verification at

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/t ... /al092022/

GFS has been the best upto 48 hours followed by (weirdly enough) CMC with UKMET in second for 72 & 96 hours. Think folks are just noticing the UKMET more because it was always east biased and the storm is trending east now.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220927/943cf1ceb85b7ab6ef34a83d7770bc7b.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Where the GFS did well was after Ian formed in staying in a low latitude in the central Caribbean and not tracking near Jamaica and over or east of Grand Cayman like the Euro initially had it. But the GFS did horrible with how deep the trough actually dug, so it was way off in the GOM in the longer range.
Also the GFS was too aggressive initially in developing Ian too soon.
Icon was the first one to sniff development in the central Caribbean when the TW was well east of the Windward Islands.

ICON develops every wave in the Atlantic every run, you can’t find a better example of a broken clock being right better than ICON.

As for accuracy post development, the chart speaks for itself imo. For long term, all models were flip flopping not just the GFS (which is still around 3rd/4th in accuracy for 72 and 96 hours). Beyond that we are just in fantasy range…


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[jlauderdal]

18z TVCN shifts southeast to Port Charlotte/Englewood

https://i.imgur.com/oZoRolK.gif

NHC will be on it or a little to the right, they have recon and now proper radar to really nail this thing down and its a system that has been on the right side for several days now. Dry Tortugas would be an interesting place to be this afternoon, think of how many systems that place has seen over the years and its standing tall.

[Jevo]

18z TVCN shifts southeast to Port Charlotte/Englewood

https://i.imgur.com/oZoRolK.gif

NHC will be on it or a little to the right, they have recon and now proper radar to really nail this thing down and its a system that has been on the right side for several days now. Dry Tortugas would be an interesting place to be this afternoon, think of how many systems that place has seen over the years and its standing tall.

'

The Southernmost cam down in Key West is wild right now. On a side note, that generator has gotten quite the upgrade since 2004

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/oZoRolK.gif

NHC will be on it or a little to the right, they have recon and now proper radar to really nail this thing down and its a system that has been on the right side for several days now. Dry Tortugas would be an interesting place to be this afternoon, think of how many systems that place has seen over the years and its standing tall.

'

The Southernmost cam down in Key West is wild right now. On a side note, that generator has gotten quite the upgrade since 2004

Inverter generator ready for duty. Key West is getting heavy weather.

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/oZoRolK.gif

NHC will be on it or a little to the right, they have recon and now proper radar to really nail this thing down and its a system that has been on the right side for several days now. Dry Tortugas would be an interesting place to be this afternoon, think of how many systems that place has seen over the years and its standing tall.

'

The Southernmost cam down in Key West is wild right now. On a side note, that generator has gotten quite the upgrade since 2004

Can you put a link to this webcam in the local reports ... thread?

[MrJames]

18z ICON is running

East trend continues. Port Charlotte landfall and moves across Florida to Melbourne. Moves into the open waters further away from the Florida east coast then north to Charleston.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z ICON is running

East tend continues. Port Charlotte landfall and moves across Florida to Melbourne. Moves into the open waters further away from the Florida east coast then north to Charleston.

That's even further SE not to mention the wallop to SC .

[tolakram]

18Z ICON

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z running

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

frames came in out of order. Landfall

[tolakram]

Using the technique Levi Cowan showed, eyewall looks intact, wet all around.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Nuno]

Already gusting over 50mph in Key West. No hurricane warning, "just" a TS warning.

I expect close approach to be around 2am and will almost certainly see hurricane gusts. When the wind shifts Wednesday, the surge will start coming in.

Very surprised no hurricane warning was been issued for us. They may be forced to put one out when surface obs show hurricane force winds.

Why not even issue a Hurricane Watch/TS Warning combo like they have done before? Surely the modeling shows gusts being a possibility for Key West?