ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

[Beef Stew]

i may have missed it but there is a chance this storm tracks straight up thru the everglades at this point, can we see a Katrina style situation where it hardly weakens as it crosses the state?

Currently that seems very unlikely, but never say never in the tropics.

[eastcoastFL]

i may have missed it but there is a chance this storm tracks straight up thru the everglades at this point, can we see a Katrina style situation where it hardly weakens as it crosses the state?

Wilma was kinda like that for us in Loxahatchee at the time

[GCANE]

Looks like maybe 2 vorticies in the eyewall.
Outflow improving with 50 knots over JAX at 300mb
CAPE climbing to 3500 and the trough is converging a pool that will be west of the track.
Looks like no dry air entrainment all the way to land fall.
IMHO, looks like no major negative impediments until landfall.

[Texas Snowman]

Hey everybody, friendly moderator moment here. Remember that things are quickly ramping up and will be getting very interesting in the hours ahead.

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[GCANE]

Looks like maybe 2 vorticies in the eyewall.
Outflow improving with 50 knots over JAX at 300mb
CAPE climbing to 3500 and the trough is converging a pool that will be west of the track.
Looks like no dry air entrainment all the way to land fall.
IMHO, looks like no major negative impediments until landfall.

Sorry, hopefully we'll have a EWRC.

[Dean_175]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/710/Uh5yav.gif

I hate to say it, but this reminds me of Dorian. The incredible eyewall lightning, the incredibly clear eye, the impressive microwave presentation…this is turning into an absolute monster.

I agree. This cyclone could strengthen to 125-130 knots over the next 18-24 hours.

Models seem to be in pretty good agreement that it is going to begin to interact with the upper trough in such a way that shears the convection eastward and pulls dry air in to the west side, resulting in a weakening system at landfall. Sort of reminds me of how Irma weakened as it was pushed into Florida upon leaving the tropics. I think Florida is looking at a cat 2/3 landfall rather than a cat 3/4.

I think we will see something like this:
coastal Sarasota county: landfall, cat 2-3 conditions along the coast.
inland Sarasota county: cat 1 conditions
Manatee: cat 1 conditions along the coast. TS winds inland.
Pinellas: strong TS conditions "inland". Cat 1 hurricane winds in the southern part of bay near the skyway and along the coast.
Hillsborough: strong TS conditions
Pasco: TS conditions
Charlotte county: cat 1 winds along the harbor. strong TS winds inland
Lee: low end TS winds

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1574803937277902852

[Beef Stew]

Mesovorticies showing up on radar, and structure continues to improve on vis by the minute. Uptick in lighting in the eyewall as well. Structure is readying itself to bomb out- pressure should start dropping rapidly, and winds will catch up a little later. Ida/Laura rate strengthening could be the ceiling here if we don’t see a large increase in wind field or an EWRC soon.

[eastcoastFL]

School will be closed in Martin county Wed and Thursday

[SconnieCane]

One thing's for sure, those model runs and their ensembles (and there were many of them just a couple of days ago) that had it missing the trough and drifting into the NGOM/Big Bend while being sheared apart were way out lunch. At that time it looked like it would take numerous east trends to create a worst-case scenario for Tampa. Well we got that and then some and now just south of Tampa (referring strictly to landfall point, not hazards) appears to be the greatest probability. Looks like the UKMET actually led the way with the EURO not far behind.

[GCANE]

Mesoscale Discussion 1833
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1833.html

Areas affected...FL Keys and South FL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 544...

Valid 271623Z - 271730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 544 continues.

SUMMARY...Relative lull in tornado potential in the near term due to
outflow-dominant character of convection near Miami. An uptick in
supercell tornado potential is possible later this afternoon once
supercell structure develops in the outer bands of Hurricane Ian.

[toad strangler]

School will be closed in Martin county Wed and Thursday

Saint Lucie County as well.

[FLpanhandle91]

Double wind maxima in NE eyewall per recon. You can see it on radar too. I believe an EWRC has started.

[Knight85]

One thing's for sure, those model runs and their ensembles (and there were many of them just a couple of days ago) that had it missing the trough and drifting into the NGOM/Big Bend while being sheared apart were way out lunch. At that time it looked like it would take numerous east trends to create a worst-case scenario for Tampa. Well we got that and then some and now just south of Tampa (referring strictly to landfall point, not hazards) appears to be the greatest probability. Looks like the UKMET actually led the way with the EURO not far behind.

Didn't some GFS runs and ensembles essentially have that yesterday?

[psyclone]

heading from NHC has gone from 5 degrees to 10 with their latest position update. she's definitely ticking eastward with time and I suspect the 5pm track will tick eastward some more.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like maybe 2 vorticies in the eyewall.
Outflow improving with 50 knots over JAX at 300mb
CAPE climbing to 3500 and the trough is converging a pool that will be west of the track.
Looks like no dry air entrainment all the way to land fall.
IMHO, looks like no major negative impediments until landfall.

Sorry, hopefully we'll have a EWRC.

I don’t even know if I can say “hopefully” because, while that would put a ceiling on the winds, that would mean a larger storm with even more surge potential

[skyline385]

One thing's for sure, those model runs and their ensembles (and there were many of them just a couple of days ago) that had it missing the trough and drifting into the NGOM/Big Bend while being sheared apart were way out lunch. At that time it looked like it would take numerous east trends to create a worst-case scenario for Tampa. Well we got that and then some and now just south of Tampa (referring strictly to landfall point, not hazards) appears to be the greatest probability. Looks like the UKMET actually led the way with the EURO not far behind.

Didn't some GFS runs and ensembles essentially have that yesterday?

Discussion for models thread but no, not yesterday. It was when all models were westwards. 06Z EPS though had like 80% members in the panhandle yesterday actually


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[ConvergenceZone]

Keep in mind also, the further south this moves over the state of Florida, the greater the chance that this will be an east coast threat as well..............

[GCANE]

Seems like mesovorts show up best on ML WV.
Looks like 3 to me.