ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ObsessedMiami]

heading from NHC has gone from 5 degrees to 10 with their latest position update. she's definitely ticking eastward with time and I suspect the 5pm track will tick eastward some more.

I am coming around to the Fort Myers camp with this eastward tracking

[Weatherboy1]

Duval/Jacksonville schools closed Thursday and Friday now. Going to be a few messy, ugly days all up and down the FL peninsula this week

[Iceresistance]

No sign of a defined double wind maxima on Recon, there is a flagged 105 knots SMFR.

[Meteorcane]

Double wind maxima in NE eyewall per recon. You can see it on radar too. I believe an EWRC has started.

I don't think quite yet... maybe you can see the hints of it developing on radar as the outer spiral band begins to wrap around the southern side of the current eyewall, but it is still a ways from having a secondary eyewall based on that appearance.

[GCANE]

Last eye drop had 91% RH at 850 mb.
Not really a sign for an impending EWRC

[RevanTheJedi96]

Keep in mind also, the further south this moves over the state of Florida, the greater the chance that this will be an east coast threat as well..............

Carolinas maybe. Rest of the East Coast looks fine.

[Hurricane Mike]

I think once Ian catches up with his satellite signature, it'll be a full blown Category 4.

[SunnyThoughts]

I think once Ian catches up with his satellite signature, it'll be a full blown Category 4.

I'm afraid I agree, unless a ERC happens.

[ColdMiser123]

Looks like a relatively rapid pressure fall between passes, based on the large drop in geopotential height between passes.

[psyclone]

Somewhere about 150 pages back in this thread i mentioned there's only 1 degree of longitude separating Cedar Key from Sanibel but that same zone represents 3.5 degrees of latitude. What an absolute nightmare for forecast a storm for...especially with the high population involved.

[skyline385]

Lightning everywhere


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[Fancy1001]

What are the chances of Ian reaching minimum category five over the next 36 hours?

[TheHurricaneGod]

4.68'' of rainfall so far.

[ConvergenceZone]

Keep in mind also, the further south this moves over the state of Florida, the greater the chance that this will be an east coast threat as well..............

Carolinas maybe. Rest of the East Coast looks fine.

true but it would still cause problems

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1574810325014253570





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[MetsIslesNoles]

Somewhere about 150 pages back in this thread i mentioned there's only 1 degree of longitude separating Cedar Key from Sanibel but that same zone represents 3.5 degrees of latitude. What an absolute nightmare for forecast a storm for...especially with the high population involved.

In the same vein, I always found it fascinating that Naples and Jacksonville are basically on the same longitude even though they're on opposite coasts.

The strike angle of Ian is miserable for forecasting for sure.

[cheezyWXguy]

Last eye drop had 91% RH at 850 mb.
Not really a sign for an impending EWRC

I agree, watching on radar, there is clearly a moat, but it only formed when the southern inflow channel was positioned over Cuba. Now that it’s pulling offshore, it’s already starting to fill in

[jasons2k]

Been busy with a lot of interests/family in the Tampa area. I’ve been expecting this to tick east of the forecasts. Strengthening storms with an incoming trough almost always do. SW Florida needs to be ready. Tampa dodges another bullet. Fortunately for them, getting the right angle for a direct hit on Pinellas is extremely difficult/ rare. Too bad for Sarasota down to Marco

[Rail Dawg]

I can imagine the panic that is developing on the Florida coast.

Part of me wants to head into it. You see people at their best… and absolute worst.

200-mile traffic jams are not your friend. I’ll bet they are starting to form now.

I’ve bailed on storms that turned away at the last moment. 6 hours before a storm there ain’t no traffic on the highways. Everyone is gone. But you risk closed bridges and such.

Speaking only for myself and because I’m comfortable with risk I’d leave later rather than sooner. I don’t like being a part of the evacuation. But that is only me.

There are many in the path without the resources to leave.

Chuck

[Dean_175]

I think once Ian catches up with his satellite signature, it'll be a full blown Category 4.

Maybe , but fortunately the models show weakening prior to landfall as it interacts with the trough and drier air.