ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...1 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[tolakram]

[tronbunny]

Somewhere about 150 pages back in this thread i mentioned there's only 1 degree of longitude separating Cedar Key from Sanibel but that same zone represents 3.5 degrees of latitude. What an absolute nightmare for forecast a storm for...especially with the high population involved.

As a Central Floridian, I really don't want the storm, but I do hope the front/trough catches this soon. It would be awful for it to dwell even if weakening along the West coast of Florida.

[gatorcane]

I think some are assuming it will continue to move NNE into Florida somewhere south of Tampa but not so sure. New runs from the GEFS and HWRF are certainly casting doubt and should keep folks in the Tampa area vigilant, seems some kind of slight turn back to the N as it slows and approaches the coast is on the table. When TCs slow especially as they approach the coast, you never know what could happen.

[Sailingtime]

Somewhere about 150 pages back in this thread i mentioned there's only 1 degree of longitude separating Cedar Key from Sanibel but that same zone represents 3.5 degrees of latitude. What an absolute nightmare for forecast a storm for...especially with the high population involved.

As a Central Floridian, I really don't want the storm, but I do hope the front/trough catches this soon. It would be awful for it to dwell even if weakening along the West coast of Florida.

It's actually going to be over central florida more than western Florida per the latest forecast track

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/b64aSNC.gif

Those outer bands might form an outer eyewall soon. So far they haven’t been successful.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The next recon that is transmitting pressure data should be in the storm soon. They have already made their decent. Now flying at 5052ft

[ColdMiser123]

Drop supports 955 mb, a 6 mb drop since the previous pass a little over an hour ago.

[Keldeo1997]

Eye drop now down to 955MB.

[CourierPR]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
100 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...1 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Now movement is 10 degrees.

[Hurricane2022]

Based on this recent recon pass, I think the SE eyewall is the strongest right now. Similar to Fiona.

[MGC]

NHC not expecting Ian to weaken much prior to landfall. From the 11am discussion:

The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for
restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm
waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear
conditions. While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't
expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before
landfall. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an
extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida.

[eastcoastFL]

Still heading slightly east of the track

[Iceresistance]

Eye drop at 957 mb (1707z), the previous one was at 961 mb (1546z).

EDIT: the eye drop showed 20 knots of wind, and 957 mb, which supports 955 mb.

[tolakram]

EWRC has become the new Annular.

[CryHavoc]

I can imagine the panic that is developing on the Florida coast.

Part of me wants to head into it. You see people at their best… and absolute worst.

200-mile traffic jams are not your friend. I’ll bet they are starting to form now.

I’ve bailed on storms that turned away at the last moment. 6 hours before a storm there ain’t no traffic on the highways. Everyone is gone. But you risk closed bridges and such.

Speaking only for myself and because I’m comfortable with risk I’d leave later rather than sooner. I don’t like being a part of the evacuation. But that is only me.

There are many in the path without the resources to leave.

Chuck

Eastbound 4 is absolutely jammed. 2.5 hours to get from Tampa to Orlando right now.

[HurricaneBelle]

EWRC has become the new Annular.

Don't forget "pinhole eye"

[NDG]

I am back in Orlando from Ft Lauderdale after cancelling my visit with a customer down there, got out of there before the heaviest rains arrived. Went shopping for groceries and a new generator before leaving because things are crazy here in Orlando.
It didn't take long for Ian to be almost low level cloud free. Looks like Tampa Bay is dodging another direct hit from a MH, great news for storm surge not getting there but bad news for being in the NW quadrant of the heaviest rains.
I wouldn't be surprised if Ian arrives to the coast still as a Cat 4, shear doesn't look that bad to knock it down until it makes landfall. IMO.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Levi has a new video up
[youtube]https://youtu.be/psxR5JRjCPA[/youtube]

[Fancy1001]

When’s the next SHIP coming out?