ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

120 mph.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...HURRICANE IAN GROWING STRONGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 83.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

[CryHavoc]

New towers going up to the N of the eyewall.

Eyewall is looking a bit more elongated in the last few frames.

[SoupBone]

I can imagine the panic that is developing on the Florida coast.

Part of me wants to head into it. You see people at their best… and absolute worst.

200-mile traffic jams are not your friend. I’ll bet they are starting to form now.

I’ve bailed on storms that turned away at the last moment. 6 hours before a storm there ain’t no traffic on the highways. Everyone is gone. But you risk closed bridges and such.

Speaking only for myself and because I’m comfortable with risk I’d leave later rather than sooner. I don’t like being a part of the evacuation. But that is only me.

There are many in the path without the resources to leave.

Chuck

Eastbound 4 is absolutely jammed. 2.5 hours to get from Tampa to Orlando right now.

I told my sister to wait until late tonight to leave St Pete and to take I-75 to SR 50 to come to Orlando.

Have you looked at the UKMET's rainfall totals? You guys might be flooding too, unfortunately.

[GCANE]

Radar indicated tornado warnings popping up north of the glades

[Iceresistance]

The other AF plane is turning around just outside of Ian for some reason. Maybe an instrument broke and it’s heading back to base, or it’s re-adjusting its flight trajectory relative to the first AF plane, or they’re going to rescue a sinking boat like what happened during Lorenzo.

Their altitude went down, maybe they found a distress signal.

[MississippiWx]

Guys Hurricane Michael hit Panama City with 185mph gusts at landfall when 8 hrs earlier the NHC had it landfalling as a Cat 2. That wasn’t too long ago.

Chuck

Just out of curiosity, why do you keep ending all of your messages with Chuck?

Because that's his name? Lol

Ian looks pepped up this afternoon. Watching that vortical hot tower to see if that signifies an upcoming period of rapid strengthening. Doesn't seem to be anything in the way of it.

[underthwx]

Question: As I watch models pass Florida's water inlets and harbors of W. coast, I'm wondering if tide times affect hurricanes and can add in changing direction. ie. Would low tide pull it closer to land and high tide push away from land?

I believe the tides in relation to a cyclone are important, as far as storm surge, for example, a landfalling storm at high tide, would push a higher amount of water into a coastal area, but as far as tides altering a storms movement, I would have to think the tides would not affect the direction of a Hurricane, but I stand to be corrected

[GCANE]

A couple short-duration towers firing up in the eyewall

[wxman57]

Shifting track south to Port Charlotte. 110 kts landfall.

[xironman]

A couple short-duration towers firing up in the eyewall

Overshooting cloudtops approaching dmin is not bad.

[MississippiWx]

New towers going up to the N of the eyewall.

Eyewall is looking a bit more elongated in the last few frames.

The reason for the elongated look is the hot tower that just exploded in the northern eye wall. It's obscuring part of the eye. Once it clears, it will look more circular again.

[eastcoastFL]

----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.3 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction
in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico today, pass west of the Florida Keys later tonight,
and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning
area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected
later today through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the
west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure has dropped to 955 mb (28.20 inches)
based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data.

[FireRat]

Shifting track south to Port Charlotte. 110 kts landfall.

Geez, it's basically the return of Charley, 18 yrs later

[gailwarning]

I think some are assuming it will continue to move NNE into Florida somewhere south of Tampa but not so sure. New runs from the GEFS and HWRF are certainly casting doubt and should keep folks in the Tampa area vigilant, seems some kind of slight turn back to the N as it slows and approaches the coast is on the table. When TCs slow especially as they approach the coast, you never know what could happen.

Don't strong hurricanes have more of a tendency to spin north?

[ConvergenceZone]

Shifting track south to Port Charlotte. 110 kts landfall.

Man, that's devastating news for Port Charlotte.... but fantastic news for Tampa.... Guess there's no win situation here

[LandoWill]

Based on these bands on radar coming in to miami/and counties around naples and inland. Could they conceivably have worse weather than say we see in tampa being on the west side of Ian?

[CrazyC83]

One alternate possibility is that it keeps strengthening right up to landfall. 24 hours from landfall, Michael was a category 3 with a similar pressure. However, ERC's are not good news as they expand the wind field.

Based on the 947 mb reading inland this morning, I think Ian had 115 kt winds with a pressure of 944 mb at Cuban landfall.

[Iceresistance]

I think some are assuming it will continue to move NNE into Florida somewhere south of Tampa but not so sure. New runs from the GEFS and HWRF are certainly casting doubt and should keep folks in the Tampa area vigilant, seems some kind of slight turn back to the N as it slows and approaches the coast is on the table. When TCs slow especially as they approach the coast, you never know what could happen.

Don't strong hurricanes have more of a tendency to spin north?

If he does turn more northward, he has more time to become even stronger.

[Maryellen46]

There are people at the Southernmost point in Key West as seen on TWC just like in Irma.

[Fancy1001]

What in the world is recon doing?