ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FireRat]

Getting really concerned for Cape Coral and Fort Myers, one of the most storm surge prone areas in the state. Catastrophic destruction will happen there if Ian gets close enough, which would be possible if he goes to Port Charlotte

[Iceresistance]

What in the world is recon doing?

Must have picked up a distress signal, the altitude has gone way down.

[ElectricStorm]

What in the world is recon doing?

The other plane is making another pass so he's probably just waiting for them to get out of the way. Either that or a search and rescue

[Fancy1001]

I think some are assuming it will continue to move NNE into Florida somewhere south of Tampa but not so sure. New runs from the GEFS and HWRF are certainly casting doubt and should keep folks in the Tampa area vigilant, seems some kind of slight turn back to the N as it slows and approaches the coast is on the table. When TCs slow especially as they approach the coast, you never know what could happen.

Don't strong hurricanes have more of a tendency to spin north?

If he does turn more northward, he has more time to become even stronger.

If he turned more north word, he would have to deal with more sheer and dryer, which would end up hurting him more than helping.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Shifting track south to Port Charlotte. 110 kts landfall.

Geez, it's basically the return of Charley, 18 yrs later

If this ends up missing Tampa with a direct hit which looks likely at the moment, I truly believe in the Tampa deflector shield. It is amazing how that area misses all of the big storms. Might be the safest place in the state to be if you don’t want any big hurricanes.

Ian can still miss Tampa with a direct hit and yet mess the city up bad. I really wouldn't be saying stuff like this until after everything is all set and done.

[jlauderdal]

There are people at the Southernmost point in Key West as seen on TWC just like in Irma.

There could be a 5 lurking and people would be at the Southernmost, Key West operates differently, not much cover available in that part of the world.

[MarioProtVI]

The other AF plane is turning around just outside of Ian for some reason. Maybe an instrument broke and it’s heading back to base, or it’s re-adjusting its flight trajectory relative to the first AF plane, or they’re going to rescue a sinking boat like what happened during Lorenzo.

Their altitude went down, maybe they found a distress signal.

It’s a buoy mission

[GCANE]

The CAPE pool to the NW has dropped to 2500 which is a good thing.
The big however though is that there is 4000 CAPE now over the Keys directly feeding into the core.

[SouthFLTropics]

The time for watching models is quickly coming to an end. We're in real time now and every wobble will make a difference. Based on the current motion and the appearance of the clouds to the north and northeast, I'm betting this comes in further south than currently projected. I'd even dare say it may get as far south as between Fort Myers and Naples and skirt the left side of Lake Okeechobee before exiting around Melbourne.

[CrazyC83]

The pressure might be in the 940s now looking at the heights on this latest pass and the fact winds are still at eyewall levels.

[ObsessedMiami]

The time for watching models is quickly coming to an end. We're in real time now and every wobble will make a difference. Based on the current motion and the appearance of the clouds to the north and northeast, I'm betting this comes in further south than currently projected. I'd even dare say it may get as far south as between Fort Myers and Naples and skirt the left side of Lake Okeechobee before exiting around Melbourne.

Big implications also for the extent of weather in the SFL East Coast Metro area also

[weeniepatrol]

Any speculation on why AF308 descended to 850mb?

[katiebelle826]

Can anyone tell me what I can expect in Winter Haven? Some of you really know your stuff when it comes to these storms!

[FireRat]

The time for watching models is quickly coming to an end. We're in real time now and every wobble will make a difference. Based on the current motion and the appearance of the clouds to the north and northeast, I'm betting this comes in further south than currently projected. I'd even dare say it may get as far south as between Fort Myers and Naples and skirt the left side of Lake Okeechobee before exiting around Melbourne.

I think the same, it could be Lee County that takes the brunt of the wind and surge imo, unless it comes further down. I hope everyone is prepared down there considering they were at the edge of the cone yesterday.

[Ed_2001]

Tampa is in a pretty difficult forecasting situation. IMO I’d say the coastline between Bradenton and Sanibel have around equal chances of direct landfall right now, and just a tiny angle deviation might mean the difference between full blown hurricane conditions or “just” TS winds.

Of course, not taking away from the fact that somewhere on the coastline, the impact will unfortunately be catastrophic.

[Iceresistance]

ADT at 6.6, 150 mph.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2022 Time : 175020 UTC
Lat : 23:31:48 N Lon : 83:14:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 930mb / 130kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +18.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

It's too high, but I believe that Ian might do this.

[Torgo]

The NHC really needs to extend the hurricane warning to Naples and Marco Island ASAP.

[Extratropical94]

The pressure might be in the 940s now looking at the heights on this latest pass and the fact winds are still at eyewall levels.

Barometric equation says you're right

6964 02746 +166 -> 951.9mb
6965 02734 +168 -> 950.5mb
6963 02733 +166 -> 950.4mb
6963 02733 +171 -> 949.9mb
6970 02727 +167 -> 950.6mb
6963 02742 +163 -> 951.6mb
6965 02742 +166 -> 951.6mb
6970 02732 +164 -> 951.4mb
6959 02739 +162 -> 950.8mb
6972 02721 +164 -> 950.5mb
6960 02728 +172 -> 948.8mb
6965 02727 +171 -> 949.5mb
6965 02730 +168 -> 950.1mb
6969 02725 +168 -> 950.1mb
6965 02728 +165 -> 950.2mb
6963 02728 +161 -> 950.3mb
6966 02725 +165 -> 950.0mb
6962 02735 +174 -> 949.6mb
6968 02739 +173 -> 951.0mb
6966 02753 +174 -> 952.1mb

[ConvergenceZone]

At least it's not forecasted to move as slow it was before where it previously had Ian in Florida for several days...Looks like it will be moving out sometime on Friday, so that helps a bit...

[Fancy1001]

Is the eye shrinking right now or just being covered up by clouds