ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

It’s too early to tell, but there is a band wrapping around the core with a moat in between. Possible beginnings of an EWRC.

[GCANE]

Watching some pop ups in the GoM, south of LA and east of TX/MX border.
If they develop, could erode the trough some.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1574830007712714754





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[GCANE]

Not really seeing a moat yet on radar.
The next eye drop will tell if the core is continuing to dry out.

[Iceresistance]

Very intense eyewall convection in the past hour.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/31551117.gif

[hipshot]

VHTs developing again on the N and S eyewalls. Also apparent on radar. This coupled with the quick drop in pressure again means it’s about to take off again and a high end C4 peak is likely. Probably 130-135 kt. If trough interaction works favorably that C5 isn’t out of the question (and then it’s literally the “Hurricane Phoenix” scenario imagined a decade ago)

Not really, hurricane Phoenix is a direct hit into the Tampa bay.

What is a hurricane "Phoenix", I've never heard that before?

[tiger_deF]

Stronger hurricanes such as Irma in the past have sometimes performed an "eyewall meld" where a partial outer eyewall fuses with the inner eyewall, halting strengthening rather than weakening the storm. Could that be a possibility with Ian as well?

[jdray]

NWS JAX reports on trapped tides from the Buckman Bridge south to Lake George. The onshore flow from the NE can prevent the tides from going out all of the way.


My thoughts: Any storm that comes in from the southwest can produce tidal backup along the rivers and creeks in Jacksonville. The St Johns River is a tidal river and even the incoming tides can go as far south as Lake George. Any heavy rainfall with a Hurricane/Tropical Storm coming from the SW can cause flooding. So if you are along the St Johns River and it's creeks and tributaries, listen to the local NWS about evacuations.

[Iceresistance]

VHTs developing again on the N and S eyewalls. Also apparent on radar. This coupled with the quick drop in pressure again means it’s about to take off again and a high end C4 peak is likely. Probably 130-135 kt. If trough interaction works favorably that C5 isn’t out of the question (and then it’s literally the “Hurricane Phoenix” scenario imagined a decade ago)

Not really, hurricane Phoenix is a direct hit into the Tampa bay.

What is a hurricane "Phoenix", I've never heard that before?

Worse case scenario for Tampa.

[KirbyDude25]

VHTs developing again on the N and S eyewalls. Also apparent on radar. This coupled with the quick drop in pressure again means it’s about to take off again and a high end C4 peak is likely. Probably 130-135 kt. If trough interaction works favorably that C5 isn’t out of the question (and then it’s literally the “Hurricane Phoenix” scenario imagined a decade ago)

Not really, hurricane Phoenix is a direct hit into the Tampa bay.

What is a hurricane "Phoenix", I've never heard that before?

It's a simulated scenario involving a Category 5 hurricane making landfall in the Tampa area. It's been referenced a few times with Ian because of its strength and forecasted landfall location

[GCANE]

Debris from the convection east of the TX/MX border is lifting the trof along the LA coast.

[tolakram]

VHTs developing again on the N and S eyewalls. Also apparent on radar. This coupled with the quick drop in pressure again means it’s about to take off again and a high end C4 peak is likely. Probably 130-135 kt. If trough interaction works favorably that C5 isn’t out of the question (and then it’s literally the “Hurricane Phoenix” scenario imagined a decade ago)

Not really, hurricane Phoenix is a direct hit into the Tampa bay.

What is a hurricane "Phoenix", I've never heard that before?

It was a demonstration / study of what happens during the worst hurricane hit that could be simulated. A simulation.

[cheezyWXguy]

Stronger hurricanes such as Irma in the past have sometimes performed an "eyewall meld" where a partial outer eyewall fuses with the inner eyewall, halting strengthening rather than weakening the storm. Could that be a possibility with Ian as well?

It’s possible, but I have to imagine it’s pretty rare. At this point I think an EWRC is kind of a crapshoot. The moat is due to a pocket of dry air getting into the circulation when the southern inflow channel went over Cuba. It seems like a 50/50 shot as to whether it commences or just mixes the dry air out. That said, if the eye rapidly contracts due to intensification it would probably increase chances for an eventual EWRC

[hurricaneCW]

Very intense eyewall convection in the past hour.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/31551117.gif
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/31551117.gif

Some pretty clear expansion as well. Do not doubt a strong 4 at landfall. The only thing stopping it is an EWRC however those expand the wind field and increase surge so not good either.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Debris from the convection east of the TX/MX border is lifting the trof along the LA coast.

That's way west of here. Going to have a negligible impact.

[skyline385]

Not really seeing a moat yet on radar.
The next eye drop will tell if the core is continuing to dry out.

The RH is decreasing probably because of the latent heat being generated by the eye along with the downward draft inside the eye. Strong hurricanes should typically have a relatively dry eye afaik.


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[Bocadude85]

The 11am NHC track has Ian crossing 83W at 26N, if we see Ian cross 83W south of that then I would be very concerned if I was in the Ft.Myers area.

[GCANE]

Eye wall east of forecast track. In fact the west eyewall sits on the track.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Debris from the convection east of the TX/MX border is lifting the trof along the LA coast.

If the trough starts to lift up, I’m assuming that means that Tampa & Sarasota might not be in the clear?

[Iceresistance]

Debris from the convection east of the TX/MX border is lifting the trof along the LA coast.

That's way west of here. Going to have a negligible impact.

It does have a impact on Ian, could allow the storm to lift more to the north without the shear and dry air tearing it apart.