ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Quite a lot of lightning in the eyewall once again.

Yeah, it really increased from an EVT that blew up in the northern eyewall.

[fci]

Some much great information here. Anyone have a projection as to how strong the storm will be when and if it reaches the center of the State? More specifically Sebring?

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

With the shifts east, Sebring is under a Hurricane Watch

[Steve H.]

Good grief

[Category5Kaiju]

Quite a lot of lightning in the eyewall once again.

Lightning frequency usually correlates well with strengthening from what I have heard in several papers.

[Iceresistance]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...4 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

In the past hour, the Cuba Institute of Meteorology located in
Havana reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) with a gust to
87 mph (140 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin

56 mph sustained wind in Havana, seems like a good example of how far TS force winds are extending, not sure how far the center of Ian is from Havana.

The center of Ian at the 4 PM EDT update is 70-72 miles away from Havana, Cuba

[underthwx]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...4 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...

In the past hour, the Cuba Institute of Meteorology located in
Havana reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) with a gust to
87 mph (140 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 83.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin

56 mph sustained wind in Havana, seems like a good example of how far TS force winds are extending, not sure how far the center of Ian is from Havana.

The center of Ian at the 4 PM EDT update is 70-72 miles away from Havana, Cuba

Thanks Ice

[wx98]

With the rate of pressure fall earlier, this has to be in the 945 range by now.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm not convinced of an EWRC yet, radar looks better and recon didn't really have a true double wind max IMO. Now I wouldn't be surprised if we saw one at some point between now and landfall but I don't really think one is happening right now

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure is disappointing that we don't have constant info coming in from HH right now. This is the time its needed most.

[GCANE]

Big ass tower firing in the west eyewall. Going to town

[NDG]

What is the new AF recon doing, search & rescue?
I don't see that is doing dropsondes.

[SFLcane]

Windfield expansion incoming!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574855290301730816

[Iceresistance]

What is the new AF recon doing, search & rescue?
I don't see that is doing dropsondes.

A buoy mission?

[Iceresistance]

Windfield expansion incoming!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574855290301730816s=46&t=_kObFgIiYEJHuYBxPPRU7w

Does that mean that Ian did a flawless EWRC or something?

[GCANE]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1834.html

Mesoscale Discussion 1834
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeast South Florida and the
middle/upper Keys

Concerning...Tornado Watch 544...

Valid 271904Z - 272030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 544 continues.

SUMMARY...The environment will continue to become more conditionally
favorable for a couple torndadoes across parts of Miami-Dade County,
Broward County, and the middle/upper Keys this afternoon.

[darc87]

Some much great information here. Anyone have a projection as to how strong the storm will be when and if it reaches the center of the State? More specifically Sebring?

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

With the shifts east, Sebring is under a Hurricane Watch

Thanks. The projected path seems to have me in its sights.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[FLpanhandle91]

Windfield expansion incoming!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574855290301730816s=46&t=_kObFgIiYEJHuYBxPPRU7w

Can clearly see the inner eye rotating around the large eye on radar as well. It'll wobble around in there until it fizzles or merges with the outer eye wall as it contracts.

[SFLcane]

Will only get bigger!

[dukeblue219]

What is the new AF recon doing, search & rescue?
I don't see that is doing dropsondes.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

It's a buoy drop mission.

[Iceresistance]

First Ian-related tornado has touched down north of I-75 in western Miami-Dade County.