ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheHurricaneGod]

Wind is starting to pick up here in fort lauderdale.

[wx98]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2022 Time : 195020 UTC
Lat : 23:53:23 N Lon : 83:13:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 928mb / 132kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +11.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Raw Ts coming down from 6.8 earlier. Could be related to this seemingly evident EWRC?

[NDG]

Highest official winds in Key West so far, from pure pressure gradient.

36G58

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries? ... W&hours=72

[CrazyC83]

I'd conservatively go 110 kt with a 948 mb pressure for the advisory. It's possible it has strengthened more but we won't know until Recon gets back into the core this evening.

[NDG]

I'd conservatively go 110 kt with a 948 mb pressure for the advisory. It's possible it has strengthened more but we won't know until Recon gets back into the core this evening.

What is that AF recon doing to the north of Ian, is flying really low. Is it doing a search and rescue?

[Iceresistance]

I'd conservatively go 110 kt with a 948 mb pressure for the advisory. It's possible it has strengthened more but we won't know until Recon gets back into the core this evening.

What is that AF recon doing to the north of Ian, is flying really low. Is it doing a search and rescue?

Someone apparently said it's a buoy drop mission.

[jlauderdal]

I'd conservatively go 110 kt with a 948 mb pressure for the advisory. It's possible it has strengthened more but we won't know until Recon gets back into the core this evening.

The southerly track is going to be really favorable compared to tampa and north.

[jlauderdal]

I'd conservatively go 110 kt with a 948 mb pressure for the advisory. It's possible it has strengthened more but we won't know until Recon gets back into the core this evening.

What is that AF recon doing to the north of Ian, is flying really low. Is it doing a search and rescue?

Someone apparently said it's a buoy drop mission.

if they dropped that thing east, I'm getting concerned

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1574833774465978368

[underthwx]

What is that AF recon doing to the north of Ian, is flying really low. Is it doing a search and rescue?

Someone apparently said it's a buoy drop mission.

if they dropped that thing east, I'm getting concerned

Maybe they are dropped in strategic locations, such as free floating buoys? That are possibly allowed to drift with currents, or the wind?

[CronkPSU]

Publix, Universal and Disney closing tonight thru Friday, don't get more real than that here in Central Florida

[MetsIslesNoles]

Publix, Universal and Disney closing tonight thru Friday, don't get more real than that here in Central Florida

But is Waffle House still open?

[mcheer23]

Publix, Universal and Disney closing tonight thru Friday, don't get more real than that here in Central Florida

But is Waffle House still open?

Nope

[TallahasseeMan]

Eye is looking a bit ragged now on IR compared to the previous frames.

[jlauderdal]

Someone apparently said it's a buoy drop mission.

if they dropped that thing east, I'm getting concerned

Maybe they are dropped in strategic locations, such as free floating buoys? That are possibly allowed to drift with currents, or the wind?

Strategic for sure, NHC and the AF dont do anything without a plan, doesnt always work though.

[NDG]

I am not sure if this is a true EWR taking place, maybe is getting ready to start happening later but that inner eyewall still looks vigorous and has not shrink any in the past hour or two.

[jlauderdal]

Publix, Universal and Disney closing tonight thru Friday, don't get more real than that here in Central Florida

Wow, thought disney might try for friday especially with all the kids off school.

[OuterBanker]

OMG Weathnerds is overloaded

[Blown Away]

I'd conservatively go 110 kt with a 948 mb pressure for the advisory. It's possible it has strengthened more but we won't know until Recon gets back into the core this evening.

The southerly track is going to be really favorable compared to tampa and north.

Does NHC just follow TVCN or do they show if they anticipate more E movement??

[MGC]

Looks like an EWRC is occurring. Expansive wind field and likely increased coastal surge. Gonna be bad.....MGC