ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Recon is not even close to the center, but the extrapolated pressure has fallen to 995.9 mb.

[Nuno]

TS warnings now for the SE FL metros.

They held us out to the very end, winds have been increasing this afternoon.

Lol they really waited until the very end. Throwing up a TS Watch was a smart move, since people won't respond to mere tornado watches or flood watches. Theres people here in the Gables putting shutters up, which probably isn't necessary, but it sure woke people up from the "cone complacency" of not feeling like there was a threat. Hope everyone across the peninsula remains safe tonight and tomorrow...

[GCANE]

UL WV seems to show the trof becoming cutoff south of the panhandle.

[Sanibel]

The car is at the airport concrete garage and safe from surge...Now I am back on Sanibel to do final preparations and get the SUV to the same concrete parking garage...


Traffic was heavy off the island in the evacuation direction but moving at the speed limit...Sanibel is a ghost town with no cars on the streets and many buildings boarded up...Heavy rain but no wind yet...


Plans are clickin and going smooth...

[tolakram]

[Fancy1001]

Who wants to bet that the pressure is in the upper 930s

[Patrick99]

Where can I find the eye diameter?

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Jq1016G/D0-A15677-A983-499-F-9113-7430-FE566-B54.png [/url]

Cool! Amazing no hurricane warning for KW. That’s confidence!

It has to be getting pretty wild on KW though. If not damaging winds, rain and coastal flooding. I would say this would be a hurricane party night there on Duval, but for that Duval St is probably going to be flooded if it isn't already.

[Full8s]

New TVCN likes my track into Port Charlotte. Bad news for that area, as Ian could produce a 14-17 ft surge into Ft. Myers. Possibly as high as 20ft. Nothing but rain in Tampa.

They gonna close the post office and schools here all week for a summer thunderstorm event SMH.. i get it the evacs, things looked bad.But, come on closing down businesses and schools for the whole week, when its just a rain event?

That's the best that can be done with the forecast accuracy we currently have. It hasn't made landfall yet so we still don't know exactly where it's going.

Schools close regardless because Pasco County schools serve as shelters for evacuees from southern counties, as well as their own. And to assume it's a just a rain event with so little margin of error is pompous at best.

[GCANE]

May have another burst of intensification at DMAX

[Buck]

Code: Select all

704
WTNT64 KNHC 272157
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
600 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...6 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).  A
WeatherFlow station at the Key West Coast Guard recently reported a
wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 83.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated pressure down to 979.1 mb, likely at the eyewall.

[Nimbus]

Inner eyewall degrading at a good clip on radar, only the northern half still seems to be convectively active

At first I thought it might be dry shear undercutting the core but I zoomed out and added more frames and now it looks like an EWRC which may leave a classic stadium effect at sunset.

[tolakram]

Right outside the eyewall

[TheHurricaneGod]

Storm is still moving at the same general heading of 10-15 degrees, with a minor due N wobble a couple of hours ago that was temporary.

[GCANE]

Stadium effect from recon

https://twitter.com/TemporadaHurac1/sta ... 2368067592

https://twitter.com/MyRadarWX/status/15 ... 3685368832

[Iceresistance]

Stadium effect from recon

 https://twitter.com/TemporadaHurac1/status/1574868822368067592




 https://twitter.com/MyRadarWX/status/1574868713685368832

I fixed the tweets for you

[SouthernBreeze]

Ian may try to take out both Disney World & Myrtle Beach all in 1 shot

[TheHurricaneGod]

what a view.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/WXRules/status/1574876273800663040

[GCANE]

Stadium effect from recon

https://twitter.com/TemporadaHurac1/status/1574868822368067592

https://twitter.com/MyRadarWX/status/1574868713685368832

I fixed the tweets for you

Much thanks