ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Shear is picking up again, just as squalls were getting close to the center last hour. Center is saying "No, you don't! Keep away from me!" Such shear fluctuations will be around for a few days, at least. As Fiona butts up against the TUTT, there's a fine line between shear and enhanced outflow. Such directional deviations will play a big part on wind and rain in St. Croix and Puerto Rico.

[wxman57]

Continuing my above post, does everyone agree that Florida is not in danger? I thought the path was still uncertain.

Here, this model plot should help. It's every single dynamic model, hurricane model, experimental models, and GFS, Canadian, and European ensembles. Probably 150 different tracks. Looks like Texas is OK, however one of those Canadian ensemble members (yellow) takes it to Lake Charles. GFS is in orange, Euro in purple.

http://wxman57.com/images/models1.JPG

[wxman57]

Continuing my above post, does everyone agree that Florida is not in danger? I thought the path was still uncertain.

What? Couldn't decipher that million model plot? I removed all the ensembles and some bad test models. This plot is all the dynamic models. Canadian is the one farthest west. I think you're going to be OK in Florida. Never turn your back on a hurricane, though.

http://wxman57.com/images/models2.JPG

[Emmett_Brown]

I am thinking of this as 2 storms... before Hispaniola, and a "possible" reformation afterward. The official NHC forecast takes it over the Dominican Republic just to the E of the mountain range. However, Fiona has consistently been outrunning the forecast over the several days, gaining longitude a little faster than forecast. These short term errors have been stacking up, and if this continues, Fiona could go over the tallest mountains. This would mean certain obliteration of the low level center. Until we know where the new center forms after land interaction, assuming it even does, long range forecasts are going to be very error prone.

[wxman57]

I am thinking of this as 2 storms... before Hispaniola, and a "possible" reformation afterward. The official NHC forecast takes it over the Dominican Republic just to the E of the mountain range. However, Fiona has consistently been outrunning the forecast over the several days, gaining longitude a little faster than forecast. These short term errors have been stacking up, and if this continues, Fiona could go over the tallest mountains. This would mean certain obliteration of the low level center. Until we know where the new center forms after land interaction, assuming it even does, long range forecasts are going to be very error prone.

If that was to happen, then the LLC would reform north and east, and the track past the DR would be more north and east.

[Emmett_Brown]

I am thinking of this as 2 storms... before Hispaniola, and a "possible" reformation afterward. The official NHC forecast takes it over the Dominican Republic just to the E of the mountain range. However, Fiona has consistently been outrunning the forecast over the several days, gaining longitude a little faster than forecast. These short term errors have been stacking up, and if this continues, Fiona could go over the tallest mountains. This would mean certain obliteration of the low level center. Until we know where the new center forms after land interaction, assuming it even does, long range forecasts are going to be very error prone.

If that was to happen, then the LLC would reform north and east, and the track past the DR would be more north and east.

It will be interesting to watch if it happens. Glancing at the 6Z Euro ensemble, the members that track over the mountains are the weakest, and many continue WNW over E Cuba (big mountains there too).

[wxman57]

I see a second vortex emerging from beneath the squalls. Strengthening storms don't do that.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[msbee]

St Maarten is closed down tight! And we have blue skies.

[Tireman4]

St Maarten is closed down tight! And we have blue skies.

Hang in there Ms Bee!!

[cycloneye]

Getting closer to Guadeloupe around 16.0N.

https://i.imgur.com/o2BdoVk.gif

and if you look closely, you can see me wave from there

Sent you a private message.

[Sciencerocks]

[sunnyday]

Thank you so much for the information, wxman57.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Naked Swirl Alert. I repeat; Naked Swirl Alert. Expect 15-20 mph winds and mostly sunny skies.

[jlauderdal]

St Maarten is closed down tight! And we have blue skies.

Sounds like my Hurricane Floyd experience way back when, there have been a few others in sofla like that.

[Iceresistance]

St Maarten is closed down tight! And we have blue skies.

It's the calm before the storm, hang on msbee!

[Hammy]

150200 1618N 05920W 9240 00741 0057 +226 +072 130036 040 051 007 00
150230 1617N 05921W 9254 00724 0061 +201 +072 128032 033 051 016 00
150300 1615N 05922W 9241 00738 0061 +200 +071 117029 033 050 012 00

Data supported 50kt, not sure why they kept 45kt for the intermediate.

[wxman57]

150200 1618N 05920W 9240 00741 0057 +226 +072 130036 040 051 007 00
150230 1617N 05921W 9254 00724 0061 +201 +072 128032 033 051 016 00
150300 1615N 05922W 9241 00738 0061 +200 +071 117029 033 050 012 00

Data supported 50kt, not sure why they kept 45kt for the intermediate.

I believe those are 10 second winds, and FL winds were barely TS strength. Also, convection was starting to decrease as they issued the advisory.

[Blown Away]

150200 1618N 05920W 9240 00741 0057 +226 +072 130036 040 051 007 00
150230 1617N 05921W 9254 00724 0061 +201 +072 128032 033 051 016 00
150300 1615N 05922W 9241 00738 0061 +200 +071 117029 033 050 012 00

Data supported 50kt, not sure why they kept 45kt for the intermediate.

I believe those are 10 second winds, and FL winds were barely TS strength. Also, convection was starting to decrease as they issued the advisory.

Doesn’t that mean Fiona could go farther west into Hispaniola before making the turn north?

[cycloneye]

Almost at Guadeloupe.

[Emmett_Brown]

The highest elevations on Guadeloupe are almost 5000 feet, so it will be interesting to see Fiona's naked swirl interact with the islands on satellite.