ATL: NICOLE - Models

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1590071343063916544

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1590071343063916544

Don't see any southward shift.

[boca]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1590071343063916544

Don't see any southward shift.

If anything it shifted north between the cape and Daytona

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1590071343063916544

Don't see any southward shift.

None of these colorful lines have been relavent in forecasting Nicole to date. Very misleading imo considering the "Big" 2 models are Martin County and south landfall a mere 36 hrs out. Not a fan of this graphic with its lack of reliable models included.

[MetroMike]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1590071343063916544

Don't see any southward shift.

If anything it shifted north between the cape and Daytona

I do see a slight shift South more are touching the Gulf now, check out storm info on TT.

[Poonwalker]

[url][/url]

Could see a cat 3

A cat 3 would be unprecedented. I don't think it will intensify that much.

Hwrf and haf show cat 3

I will say one thing I have noticed the last few hours. It has done an incredible job with walling off it's south flank after detaching from that ULL, and quickly. There's still an open dry slot intrusion on the SE flank, but if it can close that off we will see a CDO will form and it could be off to the races.

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1590071343063916544

Don't see any southward shift.

If anything it shifted north between the cape and Daytona

3 members shifted south about 30 miles if you're using Lake Okeechobee as a reference point.

[fsucory08]

Don't see any southward shift.

If anything it shifted north between the cape and Daytona

3 members shifted south about 30 miles if you're using Lake Okeechobee as a reference point.

The NHC mentioned something about odd about the models in the 10am advisory.

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1590071343063916544

Even on the graphic the GFS/Euro are way S of NHC track but still N of the runs shown below. Euro/GFS have been the big losers in the Nicole model party lagging way behind to the south for days. I've never seen these 2 giants so disregarded in a model spaghetti party. Nothing about that graphic says Palm Beach County, I know they are in the cone, but just based on the graphic.


12z GFS = Near West Palm Beach then NW across the state.


12z EURO = Hobe Sound/Martin County then across the state

[DESTRUCTION5]

If anything it shifted north between the cape and Daytona

3 members shifted south about 30 miles if you're using Lake Okeechobee as a reference point.

The NHC mentioned something about odd about the models in the 10am advisory.

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

I missed this. So they are basically saying the spaghetti plots are not lining up with model output. How the ##%@ does that even happen.

[fsucory08]

3 members shifted south about 30 miles if you're using Lake Okeechobee as a reference point.

The NHC mentioned something about odd about the models in the 10am advisory.

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

I missed this. So they are basically saying the spaghetti plots are not lining up with model output. How the ##%@ does that even happen.

No idea, but watching the model runs come in and they are way south of the plots for the 18z. Something isn't adding up

[Blown Away]

3 members shifted south about 30 miles if you're using Lake Okeechobee as a reference point.

The NHC mentioned something about odd about the models in the 10am advisory.

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

I missed this. So they are basically saying the spaghetti plots are not lining up with model output. How the ##%@ does that even happen.

Does that mean the spaghetti plots are to far N by 40-50 miles of the real data??

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1590071343063916544

https://i.imgur.com/U0xOwkH.jpg
Even on the graphic the GFS/Euro are way S of NHC track but still N of the runs shown below. Euro/GFS have been the big losers in the Nicole model party lagging way behind to the south for days. I've never seen these 2 giants so disregarded in a model spaghetti party. Nothing about that graphic says Palm Beach County, I know they are in the cone, but just based on the graphic.

https://i.imgur.com/ivED2iK.jpg
12z GFS = Near West Palm Beach then NW across the state.

https://i.imgur.com/ZvMha2k.jpg
12z EURO = Hobe Sound/Martin County then across the state

I mean, they mentioned it this morning

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The NHC mentioned something about odd about the models in the 10am advisory.

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

I missed this. So they are basically saying the spaghetti plots are not lining up with model output. How the ##%@ does that even happen.

Does that mean the spaghetti plots are to far N by 40-50 miles of the real data??

That's the way I'm reading it from the 11am discussion.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM looks to have shifted south and now agrees with the GFS on WPB / Palm Beach County area landfall

[AutoPenalti]

18Z NAM looks to have shifted south and now agrees with the GFS on WPB area landfall

It's the NAM but at least it's not bombing it out to a cat 7...

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z Icon another southern shift into Hobe/Jupiter

[jlauderdal]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1590071343063916544

https://i.imgur.com/U0xOwkH.jpg
Even on the graphic the GFS/Euro are way S of NHC track but still N of the runs shown below. Euro/GFS have been the big losers in the Nicole model party lagging way behind to the south for days. I've never seen these 2 giants so disregarded in a model spaghetti party. Nothing about that graphic says Palm Beach County, I know they are in the cone, but just based on the graphic.

https://i.imgur.com/ivED2iK.jpg
12z GFS = Near West Palm Beach then NW across the state.

https://i.imgur.com/ZvMha2k.jpg
12z EURO = Hobe Sound/Martin County then across the state

The euro and GFS very well might have it right, we shall see.

[jlauderdal]

I’m not a GFS hugger, but 12z is in Palm Beach County… Being @36 hours out I’m stunned how off the model is from the NHC track.

So is the NHC as alluded to in the last discussion...GFS has been good for this system so it has to be taken seriously.

How does, if any, would a stronger deeper hurricane moving WSW respond to a very strong HP?? Past examples they go farther S? Does this apply here?

Look at Katrina, was heading right at me, I was ready to go in the eye and boom, takes the big dive and rolls through the everglades.

[jlauderdal]

18Z NAM looks to have shifted south and now agrees with the GFS on WPB / Palm Beach County area landfall

You are in a hurricane warning, any preps? Im 10 miles south of you, no preps, tropical storm warning. If the next cycle shows more south movement, I think they move those hurricane warnings to the Broward Dade line and then for the sake of peace and tranquility in my house, I will put the shutters up and happy to do it if we have hurricane warning.