ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

Definitely in an EWRC now.

https://i.imgur.com/zninWys.gif

A really smooth one as well!

A really smooth one that, if, continues to go without additional interruptions (such as entrainment), could potentially leave Ian with a big window for further intensification. Compound that with a larger wind field, additional surge, and more robust structure… a less than ideal situation for SWFL.

[johngaltfla]

Is the main concern for people that are 20+ miles inland TS force winds and the volume of rain?

The West Coast of Florida is already over saturated due to a healthy rainy season and lots of rain in the week before Ian invited himself here. Thus flooding is going to be the main concern. Every retention pond in our area is at the top and there is no where for the excess water to go. Add in power outages and wind damage from the storm (we're supposed to get 110 mph+) and the formula for a nightmare which will last weeks is in place.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Tonight will be Ian's last chance for reintensification. It's been pretty much on forecast having dealing with land interaction and an EWRC.

I really do not know now if shear/dry air will have any impact whatsoever. It would have had it gone north of Tampa, but then that would've put Tampa in really tough spot with surge.

Zero victories tonight. The shift south now puts Tampa/Orlando in the path of an absolutely insane amount of rain, while Sarasota through Port Charlotte get the brunt of the wind and surge.

[eastcoastFL]

Definitely in an EWRC now.

https://i.imgur.com/zninWys.gif

Will this eleviate some of this pickup in strength? Also curious if shear will dwindle it before landfall, or is it almost for sure afterwards at this point....?

It may cause some slight decrease in intensity but it hasn’t yet and it would likely be very temporary if it all. Sadly there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot in the way of continued intensification between now and landfall.

[Category5Kaiju]

Tonight will be Ian's last chance for reintensification. It's been pretty much on forecast having dealing with land interaction and an EWRC.

I really do not know now if shear/dry air will have any impact whatsoever. It would have had it gone north of Tampa, but then that would've put Tampa in really tough spot with surge.

Zero victories tonight. The shift south now puts Tampa/Orlando in the path of an absolutely insane amount of rain, while Sarasota through Port Charlotte get the brunt of the wind and surge.

https://i.imgur.com/qb3wCw0.jpg

It's sadly a lose lose situation; even if Tampa is spared the worst surge, considering this is a rather large storm, the city could still face some tough winds and rain. Not to mention now the wind threat could be in the southern suburbs.

[ThunderForce]

Man, I've been watching this hurricane for days now and I just haven't been able to get much sleep because of it. Maybe three to four hours tops.

Very worried about Ian and where exactly it will track since I have family members down in South and Central FL. Having been through Michael back in 2018 and seeing all the destruction in Panama City, I just haven't been able to get my mind off of this ever since I saw that it became a depression. I'm hoping and praying that things won't be as bad as they say.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah, looks as though that EWRC may be finished in a couple hours. Doesn't seem to be disrupting too much for sure.

Considering this thing still is a Cat 3 and has a 947 mbar pressure (lower than before); yeah, not seeing anything major that could really stop this from really blowing up once the EWRC is done

Only thing I can think of is if the wind field becomes too broad for the winds to really catch up (i.e. Earl). But I don't really think that would be the case here since the pressure gradient still looks pretty good for now.

Only other thing would be if the ERC takes too long, which so far doesn't seem to be the case.

So yeah not ideal

[petit_bois]

With the current track, expecting NE winds pushing the water out. Starting to look more and more like Tampa is going to be the safest place to be unless you’re gonna run up to Tallahassee. Looks like Orlando is going the get it worse than Tampa. Just stay away from the beach.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Tonight will be Ian's last chance for reintensification. It's been pretty much on forecast having dealing with land interaction and an EWRC.

I really do not know now if shear/dry air will have any impact whatsoever. It would have had it gone north of Tampa, but then that would've put Tampa in really tough spot with surge.

Zero victories tonight. The shift south now puts Tampa/Orlando in the path of an absolutely insane amount of rain, while Sarasota through Port Charlotte get the brunt of the wind and surge.

https://i.imgur.com/qb3wCw0.jpg

It's sadly a lose lose situation; even if Tampa is spared the worst surge, considering this is a rather large storm, the city could still face some tough winds and rain. Not to mention now the wind threat could be in the southern suburbs.

Right now the WPC is putting 10"+ of rain right over my house. Really not in a good spot tonight. Personally, I would have almost preferred the northern track with the storm to my north. I can handle Cat 2/3 winds. Now it's going to dump an insane amount of rain on me.

[StAuggy]

Just a general question about the various types of graphics available under "Lower Dynamics" on sites like Tropical Tidbits.

I see 10m wind height and 850mb wind height. A quick google search says that 850mb wind height is roughly the wind at 5000 feet. As a human that happens to live closer to 33ft (10m) as opposed to 5000 feet, when I look at those two maps and it shows wind speeds, it seems that the wind speeds for 10m height drop off really quickly after landfall. Is that actually right? I suppose the wind speeds at 5000 feet might be 80+ mph, but at ground level, is it really that much lower?

No, I'm not asking this in order to make a decision to evacuate or not (I'm not in FL). I suppose it is more idle curiosity. I've had some hurricanes skirt my area before. I'm about 25 miles inland in SC and curious what sort of wind someone would actually see at ground level from a (for example) Cat 1 coming onshore. Given what these maps are showing in Florida for Ian, it makes me wonder what sort of wind speeds someone in the middle of the state along the path would actual see at ground level.

Surface winds usually drop really quickly due to frictional effects even just a few miles inland.

Is the main concern for people that are 20+ miles inland TS force winds and the volume of rain?

And tornadoes!

[NC George]

Just a general question about the various types of graphics available under "Lower Dynamics" on sites like Tropical Tidbits.

I see 10m wind height and 850mb wind height. A quick google search says that 850mb wind height is roughly the wind at 5000 feet. As a human that happens to live closer to 33ft (10m) as opposed to 5000 feet, when I look at those two maps and it shows wind speeds, it seems that the wind speeds for 10m height drop off really quickly after landfall. Is that actually right? I suppose the wind speeds at 5000 feet might be 80+ mph, but at ground level, is it really that much lower?

No, I'm not asking this in order to make a decision to evacuate or not (I'm not in FL). I suppose it is more idle curiosity. I've had some hurricanes skirt my area before. I'm about 25 miles inland in SC and curious what sort of wind someone would actually see at ground level from a (for example) Cat 1 coming onshore. Given what these maps are showing in Florida for Ian, it makes me wonder what sort of wind speeds someone in the middle of the state along the path would actual see at ground level.

Surface winds usually drop really quickly due to frictional effects even just a few miles inland.

Is the main concern for people that are 20+ miles inland TS force winds and the volume of rain?

The winds inland will be more gusty, less sustained. You can get hurricane force gusts well inland. Plus you're worried about inland flooding, both flash floods during the storm and rivers overflowing their banks in the days after the storm.

[d3v123]

My local news just showed wind speed estimates hour by hour and I was wondering if anyone knew where I could find something like that online?

[cheezyWXguy]

Definitely in an EWRC now.

https://i.imgur.com/zninWys.gif

Will this eleviate some of this pickup in strength? Also curious if shear will dwindle it before landfall, or is it almost for sure afterwards at this point....?

It may cause some slight decrease in intensity but it hasn’t yet and it would likely be very temporary if it all. Sadly there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot in the way of continued intensification between now and landfall.

EWRCs often do cause weakening, but not this one. Pressure has continued to drop and winds on radar are the highest they’ve been since leaving Cuba. The continued deepening is probably responsible for Ian progressing through the cycle so quickly. Hardly anything left of the inner eyewall now, only 4 hours after it started

[underthwx]

Man, I've been watching this hurricane for days now and I just haven't been able to get much sleep because of it. Maybe three to four hours tops.

Very worried about Ian and where exactly it will track since I have family members down in South and Central FL. Having been through Michael back in 2018 and seeing all the destruction in Panama City, I just haven't been able to get my mind off of this ever since I saw that it became a depression. I'm hoping and praying that things won't be as bad as they say.

Welcome to 2K, I wish it were under different circumstances, but you are in the right place, for timely vital information relevant to Ian. I wish you the very best for you and the ones you love....

[johngaltfla]

Tonight will be Ian's last chance for reintensification. It's been pretty much on forecast having dealing with land interaction and an EWRC.

I really do not know now if shear/dry air will have any impact whatsoever. It would have had it gone north of Tampa, but then that would've put Tampa in really tough spot with surge.

Zero victories tonight. The shift south now puts Tampa/Orlando in the path of an absolutely insane amount of rain, while Sarasota through Port Charlotte get the brunt of the wind and surge.

https://i.imgur.com/qb3wCw0.jpg

It's sadly a lose lose situation; even if Tampa is spared the worst surge, considering this is a rather large storm, the city could still face some tough winds and rain. Not to mention now the wind threat could be in the southern suburbs.

Suburbs? Heck there's over a million people living in the Manatee to Lee County strip along Southwest Florida. We're packed to the gills and will be watching some northerners probably start changing their mind about our paradise after this one.

[aspen]

Yeah, looks as though that EWRC may be finished in a couple hours. Doesn't seem to be disrupting too much for sure.

Considering this thing still is a Cat 3 and has a 947 mbar pressure (lower than before); yeah, not seeing anything major that could really stop this from really blowing up once the EWRC is done

Only thing I can think of is if the wind field becomes too broad for the winds to really catch up (i.e. Earl). But I don't really think that would be the case here since the pressure gradient still looks pretty good for now.

Only other thing would be if the ERC takes too long, which so far doesn't seem to be the case.

So yeah not ideal

I think there’s still a moderate chance that shear picks up enough within the next 12 hours or so to disrupt Ian’s EWRC and prevent it from clearing and intensifying, leading to a weakening phase before landfall, hopefully below MH intensity. A large Cat 1/2 is still very dangerous, but I’d take that over a similarly sized RI’ing Cat 4 in a heartbeat.

[johngaltfla]

My local news just showed wind speed estimates hour by hour and I was wondering if anyone knew where I could find something like that online?

Accuweather's hourly forecast does it, just type in the location then click on the hourly tab. Our estimated peak is 111 mph midnight tomorrow night, about what we went through with Irma.

[GCANE]

Mesoscale Discussion 1837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1837.html

Areas affected...southern Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 545...

Valid 272247Z - 280245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 545 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of supercells within the outer bands of Ian
will continue to pose a tornado risk through the evening.

DISCUSSION...A northwest-southeast oriented band of supercells
continues to translate north across southern FL, with periodic
strong rotation and brief tornadoes. These storms may eventually
encounter slightly lower boundary-layer theta-e as they gain
latitude. However, advection of upper 70s F to near 80 F dewpoints
will persist to the south, with slowly veering surface winds.

Deep-layer effective shear is oriented quite favorably in relation
to the outer convective bands, with a large component across the
bands. This should aid supercellular storm mode, and the possibility
of rightward motions relative to the weaker echoes, maximizing SRH.

[St0rmTh0r]

Will this eleviate some of this pickup in strength? Also curious if shear will dwindle it before landfall, or is it almost for sure afterwards at this point....?

It may cause some slight decrease in intensity but it hasn’t yet and it would likely be very temporary if it all. Sadly there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot in the way of continued intensification between now and landfall.

EWRCs often do cause weakening, but not this one. Pressure has continued to drop and winds on radar are the highest they’ve been since leaving Cuba. The continued deepening is probably responsible for Ian progressing through the cycle so quickly. Hardly anything left of the inner eyewall now, only 4 hours after it started

I remember this same thing happening in hurricane irma for most of its lifetime

[GCANE]

PV streamer to the west taking a significant hit.