ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Full8s]

My local news just showed wind speed estimates hour by hour and I was wondering if anyone knew where I could find something like that online?

Here ya go...

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... pe=digital

[JaxGator]

Tonight will be Ian's last chance for reintensification. It's been pretty much on forecast having dealing with land interaction and an EWRC.

I really do not know now if shear/dry air will have any impact whatsoever. It would have had it gone north of Tampa, but then that would've put Tampa in really tough spot with surge.

Zero victories tonight. The shift south now puts Tampa/Orlando in the path of an absolutely insane amount of rain, while Sarasota through Port Charlotte get the brunt of the wind and surge.

https://i.imgur.com/qb3wCw0.jpg

It's sadly a lose lose situation; even if Tampa is spared the worst surge, considering this is a rather large storm, the city could still face some tough winds and rain. Not to mention now the wind threat could be in the southern suburbs.

Suburbs? Heck there's over a million people living in the Manatee to Lee County strip along Southwest Florida. We're packed to the gills and will be watching some northerners probably start changing their mind about our paradise after this one.

They can take their pickle ball with them lol. Even with the EWRC, Ian still has towers blowing up on IR and Radar. The constant lightning and earlier stadium effect of the eye wall was impressive.
My folks in Jax are telling me that nearby gas stations are out of gas and lot of people are waiting to fill their tanks…Definitely a lot of the peninsula will be getting at least tropical storm conditions with possible hurricane force gusts per NWS. Also concerned about the rain and tornado threats as the hurricane approaches. And storm surge along the St.John’s River, tributaries and the beaches (especially St. Augustine and Black Creek). They tend to flood the most during tropical cyclones.

[ElectricStorm]

Really curious to see how the ERC really effected the peak winds. I think recon will find Cat 2 winds, maybe even on the low end side, but the pressure will probably be similar to the pass from the NOAA plane. I do think Ian will have another strengthening trend before landfall though.

It's going to be destructive though no matter what the final category number is though so if there's any guests reading this, please don't just focus on the category numbers make sure you are paying full attention to the NHC comments and NWS forecasts.

[GCANE]

That 4500 CAPE ridge to the SE of Ian and providing infeed has expanded significantly.

[eastcoastFL]

That 4500 CAPE ridge to the SE of Ian and providing infeed has expanded significantly.

Does that have anything to do with all these twisters spinning up ?

[Beef Stew]

My 3-legged dog Marley (now deceased) and I were in a parking lot garage in Naples, FL for Hurricane Irma. The eye passed right over us. 145mph winds?

First time in 16 hurricanes I heard and saw the Fists of God. Heard and saw them again in Michael. They are what destroy one tree but not another. One house but not the one next door. You have to see and feel them live to understand. Only in big big storms.

Cuomo on CNN was in his plush hotel room in Naples and I was with Marley the 3-legged dog down in the street when the eye passed over.

He (on live TV) tried to lecture me a bit from his perch above me. Asked me if my legal survival knife was big enough. It’s out there on You Tube somewhere but I made it clear I wasn’t too interested in being on camera. I just wanted to see downtown Naples before the opposite winds came.

It’s going to get very interesting very soon.

Chuck

Rail Dawg, you chased Laura in Lake Charles as well, right, or is my memory failing me (…again!)?

I’ll never forget your descriptions of “fists of god”. It’s a term I use now. Really no other way to convey the power these storm have.

Hoping that all in Ian’s paths have enacted proper plans and those who are staying are prepared for quite a storm.

[skyline385]

CDO cooling again




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Rail Dawg]

I assure you if I was chasing Ian and I couldn’t get my truck 30 feet above the ocean I would be hightailing it out of the strike zone probably 6 hours before landfall.

I would not in any way shape or form “ride this out” in a sea-level stand against this very powerful storm.

The water rises underneath you.

Will be watching this with all of you.

Words cannot explain the fear and panic in Florida right now.

Chuck

[GCANE]

Hooked cell west of Delray Beach

[Comradez]

Yes, the eyewall is definitely reconsolidating with the gray cloud tops wrapping all the way around the center again. As soon as a thick band of that forms and persists, expect the reformed eye to clear out and circularize again into a stadium effect by the morning.

[AdamFirst]

 https://twitter.com/WPLGLocal10/status/1574928261687431168

[GCANE]

Debris sig south of Naples, headed to town

[Zonacane]

Ivan 2.0 is occurring right now. So many tornados

[Iceresistance]

Hooked cell west of Delray Beach

How far is it away from I-95? I see 4 FLDOT cameras in that general location

[GCANE]

Looks like Delray Beach under the gun

[ThunderForce]

That 4500 CAPE ridge to the SE of Ian and providing infeed has expanded significantly.

Does that have anything to do with all these twisters spinning up ?

It seems like that might be the case based on what I know. Every time I've seen tornado watches in my area the NWS' Severe Weather forecast would usually say that there were mid-to-high CAPE numbers that made it more favorable for them.

[GCANE]

Water in the streets - Key West

[StAuggy]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 2uAMt_zceA

Levi mentioning a potential increased threat to NE FL

[GCANE]

That 4500 CAPE ridge to the SE of Ian and providing infeed has expanded significantly.

Does that have anything to do with all these twisters spinning up ?

It seems like that might be the case based on what I know. Every time I've seen tornado watches in my area the NWS' Severe Weather forecast would usually say that there were mid-to-high CAPE numbers that made it more favorable for them.

Yup, for sure. Also vertical shear and helicity in cells is another factor.

[Rail Dawg]

My 3-legged dog Marley (now deceased) and I were in a parking lot garage in Naples, FL for Hurricane Irma. The eye passed right over us. 145mph winds?

First time in 16 hurricanes I heard and saw the Fists of God. Heard and saw them again in Michael. They are what destroy one tree but not another. One house but not the one next door. You have to see and feel them live to understand. Only in big big storms.

Cuomo on CNN was in his plush hotel room in Naples and I was with Marley the 3-legged dog down in the street when the eye passed over.

He (on live TV) tried to lecture me a bit from his perch above me. Asked me if my legal survival knife was big enough. It’s out there on You Tube somewhere but I made it clear I wasn’t too interested in being on camera. I just wanted to see downtown Naples before the opposite winds came.

It’s going to get very interesting very soon.

Chuck

Rail Dawg, you chased Laura in Lake Charles as well, right, or is my memory failing me (…again!)?

I’ll never forget your descriptions of “fists of god”. It’s a term I use now. Really no other way to convey the power these storm have.

Hoping that all in Ian’s paths have enacted proper plans and those who are staying are prepared for quite a storm.

Yes I did chase Hurricane Laura. I’m glad you use the “Fists of God” terminology. They will be seen and heard with Ian if anyone is in a safe position to observe and listen. It’s why I always chose parking lot garages. Outstanding Hurricane Observation Post. I’m retired from chasing so I can share even more secrets about chasing.

Am very concerned about folks not leaving.

Chuck