ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Caribbean Sea.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled
to investigate the disturbance on Sunday, if necessary. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and Haiti through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

I don't think much will come of this. Weak low, maybe a depression. Wouldn't rule out a 35kt TS. Central America rain threat.

[Ryxn]

I don't think much will come of this. Weak low, maybe a depression. Wouldn't rule out a 35kt TS. Central America rain threat.

I'm gonna remember this for later! You never know.

[GCANE]

Interesting high rain-rate tower on a CCW trajectory.
Miss Piggy is currently in the area.
Drop showing very moist mid levels

[GCANE]

ASCAT recording 25 knot surface winds.
IR satellite analysis showing an improving LL circulation with a TD structure.

[GCANE]

Looks like a refire on the tower.
As I mentioned a few days ago, Sunday may see better development due to the dissipation of the UL trof over Hispaniola.
Looking better today.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy did a drop just in front of the tower.
Air saturated to 575mb.
Measured 50 knt winds at 1000mb.
Looks good for a spin up.

[weeniepatrol]

This pass is about nine hours old.

[cycloneye]

1. Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
However, overnight satellite wind data suggest the circulation is
gradually becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the
progress of this system. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be investigating the system this morning. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and Jamaica during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[tropicwatch]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 15:23Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Mission Purpose: Investigate ninth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 11

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 14:58:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15.57N 73.10W
B. Center Fix Location: 216 statute miles (347 km) to the SSW (194°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19kts (21.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79°) of center fix at 14:49:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 171° at 17kts (From the S at 19.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the E (82°) of center fix at 14:52:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 21kts (24.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 15:10:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 9° at 19kts (From the N at 21.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 15:01:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 172m (564ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 181m (594ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 6 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 19kts (~ 21.9mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (226°) from the flight level center at 15:01:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feet
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[tropicwatch]

Looking like pressure is starting to slowly drop.

[zzzh]

15L soon.

[Laminar]

I don't think much will come of this. Weak low, maybe a depression. Wouldn't rule out a 35kt TS. Central America rain threat.

This one has been looking at Belize for a while. Hope you're right!

[MarioProtVI]

Huge uptick in intensity on 12z GFS and HWRF (with recon data), with both having major hurricanes essentially (a C4 in the latter’s case). EURO not so much but a more deeper then previous runs so probably gonna be odd one out as it plays catch up. CMC also on board with a near-hurricane into Belize. I think the models are course correcting after the sudden drop off. Those comments about this being only a weak, 35 kt storm into CA might regret it if these models hold true.

[aspen]

From the 2pm TWO:

Potential tropical cyclone advisories
could also be required as soon as this afternoon, and interests in
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system as tropical storm watches or warnings could become necessary.

[cycloneye]

PTC probable at 5 PM.

Central Caribbean:
Earlier data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicated that the circulation is becoming better
defined with an area of low pressure located over the central
Caribbean Sea. The aircraft also indicated the system is producing
winds of 35-40 mph to the north of its center. An additional
increase in organization in the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity could prompt the development of a tropical depression or
storm over the next day or so. Potential tropical cyclone advisories
could also be required as soon as this afternoon, and interests in
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system as tropical storm watches or warnings could become necessary.
The system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea over the next
several days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[IcyTundra]

This is going to be a really small system which makes it harder to predict intensity.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2022103018, , BEST, 0, 157N, 733W, 35, 1005, LO