ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

Rough day at the office for recon flights

It's like a comedy of errors. Most of us were hoping it wouldn't be as bad as with Eta. I think it might be worse.

[LarryWx]

The last couple frames of the radar has some distinct northerly headings.

I def saw a wobble left a bit

The 1AM NHC position actually ticked west by 0.1 vs the prior updates. It was at 82.9 at 10 PM-12:30 AM and the 1AM has it at 83.0.

[skillz305]

Ian looks grumpy and scary

[Beef Stew]

That eye is clearing out fast- and if it’s anything like the HWRF is suggesting, it’s going to be be quite noticeable in the next few hours.

[gailwarning]

That eye is clearing out fast- and if it’s anything like the HWRF is suggesting, it’s going to be be quite noticeable in the next few hours.

Stop being interesting, you guys! I've gotta get some sleep!

[caneman]

The last couple frames of the radar has some distinct northerly headings.

I def saw a wobble left a bit

The 1AM NHC position actually ticked west by 0.1 vs the prior updates. It was at 82.9 at 10 PM-12:30 AM and the 1AM has it at 83.0.

I've been watching the Northward trend for over an hour now. A few of the more reliable models have moved west. I think Sarasota Venice is under the gun and if so, would put Tampa quite a bit closer to high winds. Assuming no NE turn commences soon

[Teban54]

Pressure's rising almost as fast as it dropped ever since the ERC completed.

While I hope this continues, with the eye now closed and perfectly round, as well as convection trying to wrap around, I'm afraid that won't be the case.

Looks like we have no way to know in the short term.

[CrazyC83]

Next Recon plane leaves in about an hour and arrives around 0830Z according to the schedule.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure's rising almost as fast as it dropped ever since the ERC completed.

While I hope this continues, with the eye now closed and perfectly round, as well as convection trying to wrap around, I'm afraid that won't be the case.

Looks like we have no way to know in the short term.

Radar velocities seem to have increased from the Key West radar in the last hour or so. I'd use that to go 110 kt with a 950 mb pressure, as the highest I see are about 124 kt at 9,500 feet.

[Beef Stew]

That eye is clearing out fast- and if it’s anything like the HWRF is suggesting, it’s going to be be quite noticeable in the next few hours.

Stop being interesting, you guys! I've gotta get some sleep!

Right, it really isn’t fair that these storms always seem to get their acts together on weeknights… I’m about to have to call it a night as well.

I’ll never forget Michael- stayed up for the 2 AM advisory where it got bumped up to 130 mph, and when I woke up a few hours later we had a 145 mph storm pushing 150 and somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 mbar lower. While that was a different situation and I don’t think Ian will pull a Michael… let’s just say going to bed on intensifying storms makes me a little nervous for what I’ll wake up to.

[Hurricane Mike]

CDO keeps rebounding rounder

[ThunderForce]

Is Ian still planned to move eastward, or has something happened to prevent it from doing so? It seems that it hasn't really moved eastward that much in the past hour or so.

[LandoWill]

I have been on swiftmud all day and it's either been right of the line...or on the line, or the eye on some part of the line, this is the furthest to the "west" or left of the line it's been all day on these tracks.

[sikkar]

Ring of fire around the eye...

[ThunderForce]

Well, comparing the last advisory to the current one it seems to have moved from 25.1°N to 25.2°N but no further east.

[LandoWill]

Well, comparing the last advisory to the current one it seems to have moved from 25.1°N to 25.2°N but no further east.

2am still says NNE... If this continues the next 3 hours before the 6am, something is up. Makes a huge difference from us in tampa... from a rain event with some wind, to something more serious

[Teban54]

Reminds me of Ian the night before its Cuba landfall. This is how it looked like:

Eye getting rounder every frame, cloud tops cooling to the north, and hot towers in the SW quad remains persistent. Looking the healthiest it has ever been.
https://i.postimg.cc/CMnPsRG5/goes16-ir-meso1-1.gif

[LarryWx]

Well, comparing the last advisory to the current one it seems to have moved from 25.1°N to 25.2°N but no further east.

So, no net east move in longitude in 5 hours as it was at 83.0 way back at 9PM. May be pretty meaningless due to wobbling and thus may make up for this over the next few hours, but I still find it interesting. It has moved only at about 7 mph the last 3 hours fwiw.

[SouthernBreeze]

EC-Fast from the Model thread is almost back up to Tampa again

[Teban54]

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0vBnJjW/goes16-ir-09-L-202209280337.gif
Reminds me of Ian the night before its Cuba landfall. This is how it looked like:

Eye getting rounder every frame, cloud tops cooling to the north, and hot towers in the SW quad remains persistent. Looking the healthiest it has ever been.
https://i.postimg.cc/CMnPsRG5/goes16-ir-meso1-1.gif

Geez, everything I quoted there about its Cuba landfall applies equally well to right now.