ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

If Ian continues to deepen unfortunately could see some of those mixing down to the surface.

Yeah, the data on the Northern Eyewall Dropsonde just came in and it's even more terrifying!

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Northern-Eyewall-Dropsonde-on-Ian.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Northern-Eyewall-Dropsonde-on-Ian.png

Just woke up and wow, am now curious why did NHC only use 140 mph for the advisory?


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They don’t set intensity based on those drops. FL winds supported 120 kts.

[Extratropical94]

160 FL

[cjrciadt]

160 FL

kts or mph?

[StormingB81]

Not that I am questioning the NHC but they just posted a graphic saying I could see 74-110mph winds yet we’re not under a hurricane warning here..I’m in Brevard County by the way.

[skyline385]

160 kts FL/ 135 kts SFMR

[Extratropical94]

160 FL

kts or mph?

knots

[Jelmergraaff]

160 FL

Just had an exam at uni... Now I see this...

[Keldeo1997]

Uhhhh I think we might have CAT 5 Support

[cjrciadt]

Not that I am questioning the NHC but they just posted a graphic saying I could see 74-110mph winds yet we’re not under a hurricane warning here..I’m in Brevard County by the way.

Not until Thursday pm I presume thus 11am the upgrade then?

[wx98]

That supports 155 mph easily if not 160 and it’s the west side.

[REDHurricane]

[Iceresistance]

160 FL

WOW! Category 5 SMFR that is unflagged!

[johngaltfla]

160 kts FL/ 135 kts SFMR
https://i.imgur.com/f1l70qw.png

[kevin]

Wow it's a cat 5. 160 kt FL winds results in 144 kt (0.9 conversion factor) and 137 kt SFMR. Blend with undersampling is more than enough support for 140 kt. Last times during edge cases (Eta, Sam) the SFMR was sufficient but FL winds were too low. But if 160 kt FL isn't enough I don't know what is.

[Jelmergraaff]

Wow it's a cat 5. 160 kt FL winds results in 144 kt (0.9 conversion factor) and 137 kt SFMR. Blend with undersampling is more than enough support for 140 kt. Last times during edge cases (Eta, Sam) the SFMR was sufficient but FL winds were too low. But if 160 kt FL isn't enough I don't know what is.

Do you think NHC will issue a special advisory soon?

[Teban54]

Wow it's a cat 5. 160 kt FL winds results in 144 kt (0.9 conversion factor) and 137 kt SFMR. Blend with undersampling is more than enough support for 140 kt. Last times during edge cases (Eta, Sam) the SFMR was sufficient but FL winds were too low. But if 160 kt FL isn't enough I don't know what is.

This definitely has the strongest case for a Cat 5 after Dorian.

[kevin]

Wow it's a cat 5. 160 kt FL winds results in 144 kt (0.9 conversion factor) and 137 kt SFMR. Blend with undersampling is more than enough support for 140 kt. Last times during edge cases (Eta, Sam) the SFMR was sufficient but FL winds were too low. But if 160 kt FL isn't enough I don't know what is.

Do you think NHC will issue a special advisory soon?

Yes definitely. Even if they 'only' raise it to 135 kt I expect a new advisory very soon. Probably once we also get the center pass from this plane for the pressure measurement.

[Iceresistance]

Another case of very rapid intensification! a 15-20 mph increase in under 2 hours!

[weeniepatrol]

WHAT IN THE F**K

[dizzyfish]

I've been up since 3:30 this morning to get the dogs out before the big bands started rolling through (New Port Richey in Pasco). Watching Ian inch ever closer to the coast and what will be a catastrophe for my state. My dearest cousin lives in Wauchula. She went through Charley there. I am praying Ian downgrades some before he gets to her. I fear for them and their cattle. Stay safe all.