ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jconsor]

There are several analog hurricanes which hit SW FL from the S/SSW. The most similar ones are Charley and especially the infamous Oct 1944 Cuba-Florida hurricane. The Oct 1944 storm was similar in size to Ian and much larger than Charley, and hit as a category 3 with pressure of 949 mb.

The similarity of the Oct 1944 hurricane to Ian is quite concerning for the insurance industry in FL, which is already reeling from the recent loss of numerous insurance providers.

If the Oct 1944 'cane were to hit today it be expected to cause direct economic losses (damage) of around $80 billion - adjusting for per-capita wealth and population increases as well inflation! See the tweet below for methodology for calculating normalized losses from past hurricanes.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575068739661627392




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575070299317362691




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1575071643138805761

[weeniepatrol]

...IAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...


Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250
km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM EDT (1100 UTC) to
reflect this change and update the forecast.

6:35 AM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 25.9°N 82.8°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 936 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

[skyline385]

Few WMG pixels, eye continues to warm

[kevin]

...IAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...


Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250
km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM EDT (1100 UTC) to
reflect this change and update the forecast.

6:35 AM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 25.9°N 82.8°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 936 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

Okay so no cat 5 yet, even though I do think there is some data supporting it. But of course they are the experts and probably have even more data available than we have. Either way looking at the current IR I think Ian will only continue improving from now on so the next few recon passes might be enough for them to pull the trigger.

[Fancy1001]

I think recon is turning around to try and confirm whether that 160 not flight was accurate, If it is, I suspect they’ll upgrade it to either 135 kts or 140kts. Knowing them, it’ll be 135.

[HurricaneEnzo]

The Southern course has allowed Ian to become another example of perfect trough interaction. It is at just the right distance to get that huge outflow boost and not be sheared. Couple that with that with extremely warm waters and it's bad news.

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[NewEnglandWinter]

My namesake storm with a possible Cat 5 landfall... just a few days ago I was on board for the GFS solutions which weakened this into a TS before the panhandle.

Given the uncertainty in track and intensity the past couple days, I'm sure there are many people surprised by the possibility of landfall this strong -- I hope that everyone in the danger zone has evacuated.

[Teban54]

8th consecutive year with a 135+ kts storm (although this may break if/when Matthew is reanalyzed).

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
635 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250
km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM EDT (1100 UTC) to
reflect this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 635 AM EDT...1035 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 82.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

[Nimbus]

Huge eyewall carrying those core winds around, worst situation possible for SW Florida.
Not sure what the northern jog is going to do to the Tampa bay area, Intellicast only showing winds less than 40 mph for inland Pinellas county and 50 mph on the beaches. Irma was worse than that and Ian looks like he could be similar for the western areas of Tampa bay.

[ColdMiser123]

137 kt SFMR is still a category 5, and especially when you include the 160 kt FL wind, this is a stronger case than any of the borderline cases we've seen. The FL wind is now even higher than it was for Michael.

[NDG]

I woke up, I went straight to the grocery store for last minute supplies. I was in the store watching the recon, I almost forgot to pay after seeing the 160 knot flight level winds found while checking out

[Jelmergraaff]

Other airplane unflagged 138 kt SFMR in W eyewall...

[skyline385]

137 kts SFMR from the NW quad too

[HurricaneEnzo]

Hard to believe this won't be a Cat 5 eventually with this rate of deepening. Let's hope a fly in the ointment reveals itself soon.

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[tropicwatch]

Looking at radar it looks like it has been stationary last 30 minutes.

[caneman]

Huge eyewall carrying those core winds around, worst situation possible for SW Florida.
Not sure what the northern jog is going to do to the Tampa bay area, Intellicast only showing winds less than 40 mph for inland Pinellas county and 50 mph on the beaches. Irma was worse than that and Ian looks like he could be similar for the western areas of Tampa bay.

I dont buy the 50. We got up to 70 with Frances and Jeanne near the Pinellas beaches

[Iceresistance]

The amount of Lightning is still absolutely crazy all along the eyewall.

[skyline385]

Raw T up to 7.1 now

[Stormgodess]

Being up alone all night long watching Katrina make this same sort of increase overnight, with hardly anyone on TV talking about it. Is exactly what made me want to understand how these storms work myself