ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/SCwxFrankStrait/status/1573152705614598144

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is starting to organize at a good clip now. I think it's already close to becoming a tropical depression, if not already one. I wouldn't be surprised if advisories start at 5am.

[sponger]

On behalf of the entire State of Florida, you can go to hell CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92300&fh=6

[sma10]

Yeah, so I'm thinking the NHC probably wants to call this pretty soon, if for no other reason to start making the general public aware with official advisories. After all, there could be a genuine risk to the Keys in .. 4 days? Doesn't it take 48+ hrs to evacuate? 99% of the general public prob isn't even aware of this thing yet

[PandaCitrus]

On behalf of the entire State of Florida, you can go to hell CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92300&fh=6

Yeah that's a horrible run. The property insurance market in FL is in such a precarious state right now a major hurricane hit will collapse the market. Nobody will be getting property insurance next year outside Citizens.

[caneseddy]

On behalf of the entire State of Florida, you can go to hell CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92300&fh=6

Tell that to ICON and GFS too lol

[sponger]

On behalf of the entire State of Florida, you can go to hell CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92300&fh=6

Yeah that's a horrible run. The property insurance market in FL is in such a precarious state right now a major hurricane hit will collapse the market. Nobody will be getting property insurance next year outside Citizens.

Yep. Citizens is now writing 70% of the polices in the State.

Who is the largest insurer in Florida?
The 25 Largest Florida Homeowners Insurance Companies:
Largest Insurance Company Policies in Force
1 Universal Property and Casualty Insurance Company 577,263
2 Citizens Property Insurance Corporation 466,506
3 Security First Insurance Company 334,335
4 Federated National Insurance Company 272,335

[skyline385]

On behalf of the entire State of Florida, you can go to hell CMC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92300&fh=6

Tell that to ICON and GFS too lol

Yea all 3 of the 0Z runs partially or completely stalling over FL, feels like some new upper level data dump just went in for these runs.

[AJC3]

So I'm thinking the NHC probably wants to call this pretty soon, if for no other reason to start making the general public aware with official advisories. After all, there could be a genuine risk to the Keys in .. 4 days? Doesn't it take 48+ hrs to evacuate? 99% of the general public prob isn't even aware of this thing yet

The convection is persistent enough to say that It's pretty much a sheared/displaced CDO with an exposed LLC that's just waiting for the shear to subside. As long as that cold topped convection maintains itself, and I think it will, advisories are nearly a given at 5AM.

[sma10]

So I'm thinking the NHC probably wants to call this pretty soon, if for no other reason to start making the general public aware with official advisories. After all, there could be a genuine risk to the Keys in .. 4 days? Doesn't it take 48+ hrs to evacuate? 99% of the general public prob isn't even aware of this thing yet

The convection is persistent enough to say that It's pretty much a sheared/displaced CDO with an exposed LLC that's just waiting for the shear to subside. As long as that cold topped convection maintains itself, and I think it will, advisories are nearly a given at 5AM.

Agree 100%. Some of these model runs are just too risky for them to wait any longer besides. Potential of evacuations for the entire Keys and up both coasts. Ugh

[CrazyC83]

So I'm thinking the NHC probably wants to call this pretty soon, if for no other reason to start making the general public aware with official advisories. After all, there could be a genuine risk to the Keys in .. 4 days? Doesn't it take 48+ hrs to evacuate? 99% of the general public prob isn't even aware of this thing yet

The convection is persistent enough to say that It's pretty much a sheared/displaced CDO with an exposed LLC that's just waiting for the shear to subside. As long as that cold topped convection maintains itself, and I think it will, advisories are nearly a given at 5AM.

Agree 100%. Some of these model runs are just too risky for them to wait any longer besides. Potential of evacuations for the entire Keys and up both coasts. Ugh

I mentioned in the models thread that we need to get extra balloon launches to determine the trough strength (having launches at 6Z and 18Z would help) and Gonzo would be of great use in the Gulf and western Caribbean. We're not in Fantasyland anymore.

[chaser1]

So I'm thinking the NHC probably wants to call this pretty soon, if for no other reason to start making the general public aware with official advisories. After all, there could be a genuine risk to the Keys in .. 4 days? Doesn't it take 48+ hrs to evacuate? 99% of the general public prob isn't even aware of this thing yet

The convection is persistent enough to say that It's pretty much a sheared/displaced CDO with an exposed LLC that's just waiting for the shear to subside. As long as that cold topped convection maintains itself, and I think it will, advisories are nearly a given at 5AM.

I'm starting to think the same; far sooner then I was anticipating and a "ramp-up" that really does imply this eventual storm has some nasty intentions

[SFLcane]

Wow as I sit here tonight looking at this IR loop I can’t shake the bad feeling I have about this storm. The circulation looks very impressive and it’s now bursting pink IR I don’t want to see what this is going to look like once it makes it into the western Caribbean.

Shear ahead it is dropping fast.

[AtlanticWind]

This storm seems like it might be similar to the sept 1948 hurricane that hit Florida.
Formed near Jamaica moved north into S Florida in late September.

[Hurricaneman]

I’m seeing a possible relocation possibly happening under the MLC with an eddy visible outside the convection, still broad but possibly relocating under the convection

[us89]

Wonder if an early development means some of the more southern/western solutions may be back on the table. Center is going to get tugged underneath all of that convection to the west southwest.

[SFLcane]

I’m seeing a possible relocation possibly happening under the MLC with an eddy visible outside the convection, still broad but possibly relocating under the convection

Na, llc has been well established for a while now it’s been just sheared.

[Landy]

Slowly feeling like a lose-lose scenario for me. Extended family lives primarily in SWFL while I'm up in Daytona; shift N or S just means either of us would be in play. Here's to hoping this doesn't get as strong as models suggest.

[Stormi]

Slowly feeling like a lose-lose scenario for me. Extended family lives primarily in SWFL while I'm up in Daytona; shift N or S just means either of us would be in play. Here's to hoping this doesn't get as strong as models suggest.

Just take a deep breath & prep. You lose NOTHING by doing so. Could still be quite valuable over winter. Don't panic, but hurry. I'm going tmw. Does no harm being prepared, especially in given times.

[canebeard]

I’m seeing a possible relocation possibly happening under the MLC with an eddy visible outside the convection, still broad but possibly relocating under the convection

Na, llc has been well established for a while now it’s been just sheared.

.
Just as likely is that the current convective bomb will fade and the next bomb will go off more over the current center. Then as the shear decreases another bomb will ignite over the current circulation as it gets into w carib.