ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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FLLurker32
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4921 Postby FLLurker32 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:21 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:I definitely didn't expect borderline Cat 5 before landfall, but at the same time I never bought some of the the predictions that it was going to go from Cat 3 (ish) to severely sheared low end Cat 1 in the last 24 hours before landfall either.


I didn't either! I think this is the last time I ever pay attention to model forecasted intensity. I mean, I know they usually aren't that accurate, but even yesterday most models weren't predicting a almost Cat 5 cane....


We could tell most models were understated by the pressure at initialization. If NHC doesn’t officially put it to Cat 5 prior to landfall it’ll likely get upgraded after damage assessment. In any case, what’s the difference between 155 and 157? Both are devastating.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4922 Postby bunkhouse » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:21 am

What do you guys and gals think the intensity will be like in Orlando? Long time lurker here so thanks for your answers in advance.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4923 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:21 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4924 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:22 am

Seeing the surge rapidly increase on Sanibel cams. This is horrific. Those beautiful islands.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4925 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:22 am

How much wind is expected in Orlando/Disney? I have a couple people I know asking.
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ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4926 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:23 am

tolakram wrote:This was dry just 15 minutes ago. (saved loop, not live)

https://i.imgur.com/yAXIx7y.gif



Here it goes!...


That's at Jerry's Supermarket over a mile from the ocean and 2.5 miles east of my house...Extrapolate another 2 feet for my neighborhood 300 yards from the Gulf...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4927 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:23 am

WOW...on the weather channel. Live video of Fort Myers
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4928 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:24 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4929 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:24 am

Recon should be near the center in about half an hour. Roughly 200 miles out and flying at 364mph.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4930 Postby FLLurker32 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:25 am



I’ve watched Josh many times. Followed him through Dorian until he lost connection. He’s a good example of an experienced chaser. He enjoys the thrill but knows what he’s doing and brings back valuable scientific data from the storm center each time.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4931 Postby drewschmaltz » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:25 am

aspen wrote:How much wind is expected in Orlando/Disney? I have a couple people I know asking.


I'm from Orlando and have been through several storms here. One thing I think people don't understand is even Charley was only a cat 1 over Orlando. I couldn't find a hurricane that ever gave us over cat 1 in history.

In my opinion entirely, this will break that record. I expect high end cat 2 / low end cat 3. Either way. The slow motion is going to create a very long spell of dangerous conditions.

I'm pretty close to Disney. NOT looking forward to this.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4932 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:25 am

While that's 9,000 feet up, you can safely assume winds of 140-145 at the surface. For perspective, that would register as an EF-3 if it were a tornado. A 15 mile wide EF-3. :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4933 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:25 am

Speechless, what an image.

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4934 Postby JPmia » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:26 am

Based on radar and watching those webcams from Sanibel it's clear they're in the eyewall.. that water came in immediately when the wind/rain went to hell. Amazing to watch how fast that happens.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4935 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:26 am

I want to know where all that debris is coming from that was showing up on the Fort Myers footage on the weather channel?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4936 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:26 am

The CDO is beginning to cool again. This may be what takes Ian over the top to become a Cat 5.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4937 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:27 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4938 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:27 am

I wonder what the chance is of Ian being retired are after all this is said and done?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4939 Postby d3v123 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:28 am

My power just went out in Bradenton. Gusts started to pick up more in the last hour
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4940 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:28 am

TallyTracker wrote:The CDO is beginning to cool again. This may be what takes Ian over the top to become a Cat 5.


You can see the live footage they were showing on youtube...Severe Studios channel
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