ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bob rulz]

Seems awfully optimistic that this won't become a hurricane before passing Jamaica.

[Chemmers]

First cone for Tropical Depression 9 takes it over Western-Cuba and towards Florida with hurricane-force winds. Maximum intensity forecast at +120h of 95 kt/110 mph.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/0_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

unfortunately in the next few days we might see an M pop up on the map

[dizzyfish]

Good morning. Do you know if they have sent the aircraft out in front to sample the players that will steer this system? Or is that later this weekend?

[AJC3]

Good morning. Do you know if they have sent the aircraft out in front to sample the players that will steer this system? Or is that later this weekend?

There hasn't been a Gulfstream flight sent out to this yet, and there isn't one planned for today.

The daily recon plans are posted in a separate recon thread on this forum.

You can also keep tabs on recon plan for the next couple days at this link:

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0210 PM EDT THU 22 SEPTEMBER 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-119 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE FIONA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74
A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z A. 24/1130Z
B. AFXXX 2807A FIONA B. AFXXX 2907A FIONA
C. 23/1830Z C. 24/0945Z
D. 40.6N 61.8W D. 45.5N 61.2W
E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX G. FIX

2. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z A. 24/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0409A CYCLONE
C. 23/2145Z C. 24/0900Z
D. 14.4N 71.7W D. 14.8N 74.5W
E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z E. 24/0930Z TO 24/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR & FIX

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT AREA SYSTEM IF IT
DEVELOPS.
B. NOAA 43 AND 42 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO SUSPECT
AREA SYSTEM FOR 25/0000Z AND 25/1200Z, DEPARTING TNCA AT
24/2100Z AND 25/0900Z, RESPECTIVELY.

4. REMARKS:
A. TEAL 73 WILL NOW FLY THE 22/2330Z MISSION AND TEAL 72 WILL
FLY THE 23/0530Z MISSION FOR FIONA FIX REQUIREMENTS TASKED
IN TCPOD 22-118.
B. THE NASA 817 DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
TOMORROW OFFSHORE WESTERN AFRICA AT ALTITUDES OF 25,000 TO
39,000 FT, DEPARTING GVAC AT 23/0600Z. (DATE CORRECTED)

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

[SFLcane]

Good morning. Do you know if they have sent the aircraft out in front to sample the players that will steer this system? Or is that later this weekend?

HH should be in the TD around 630-7am

[N2FSU]

I still think the track will be adjusted westward eventually, how much is anyone’s guess. I’m just not buying that strong and deep of a trough in late September. I’ve been teased too many times with forecasts of nice fall weather and it ends up still being a bit too early for such a front. IMHO.

[AJC3]

Good morning. Do you know if they have sent the aircraft out in front to sample the players that will steer this system? Or is that later this weekend?

HH should be in the TD around 630-7am

Pretty sure they mean the Gulfstream synoptic surveillance flights.

[SFLcane]

Good morning. Do you know if they have sent the aircraft out in front to sample the players that will steer this system? Or is that later this weekend?

HH should be in the TD around 630-7am

Pretty sure they mean the Gulfstream synoptic surveillance flights.

Oh yea. I bet HH finds this near a TS if not already. Never fails

[cane5]

Track is initially taking a more eastern component. The hope was to miss Jamaica that would have become a better sign for South Florida. Apparently that high pressure ridge in the Southwestern gulf is going to maintain itself days on going forward. The question is going to be how strong is that eastern moving trough going to be by the time it gets to the Penninsula.

[skillz305]

East coast central Florida here, everyone is talking about this storm today. It’s time to prepare if you aren’t already.

[ObsessedMiami]

Time to dust off the old login for this year

NWS Miami forecast calls for Tropical Storm conditions possible for Tuesday night

Should be an interesting weekend here in South Florida

[jlauderdal]

Time to dust off the old login for this year

NWS Miami forecast calls for Tropical Storm conditions possible for Tuesday night

Should be an interesting weekend here in South Florida

TS winds knockout power where I live, the lines are overhead, roh roh. Filling the gas cans in the next hour, enough for 10 days, the new generator(inverter) sips gas while the old one made the gas companies some real money. I'm preparing for a major hurricane in SE Florida, hopefully, my preps are overkill.

[Nimbus]

Time to dust off the old login for this year

NWS Miami forecast calls for Tropical Storm conditions possible for Tuesday night

Should be an interesting weekend here in South Florida

TS winds knockout power where I live, the lines are overhead, roh roh. Filling the gas cans in the next hour, enough for 10 days, the new generator(inverter) sips gas while the old one made the gas companies some real money. I'm preparing for a major hurricane in SE Florida, hopefully, my preps are overkill.

Convection puff near 13.8N this morning so center has gained about a degree of latitude.
When it reaches longitude of Jamaica is where the models are expected to get a better handle on the upper air pattern and track.
Looks a little south of official track this morning but no visible yet to confirm.

[cane5]

Weather Channel already going wall to wall coverage…gotta love it

[kevin]

And so TD9 joins a small group of storms to have a 95 kt or higher value in their first forecast. Here are all the other storms from that list since the modern advisory archives started in 1998. Of the previous storms with such a forecast 6 of the 9 eventually became MHs. It also makes TD9 the most aggressive forecast (at least since 1998) which includes Florida in its first cone. I hope it won't be as bad as some models show, but this really shows the uniqueness of TD9. So if you're in the area that could be affected I'd highly encourage you to prepare today or tomorrow before the remaining millions of people also realize they have to prepare.

100 kt
Sam - 2021
Tomas - 2010

95 kt
TD9 - 2022
Ida - 2021
Iota - 2020
Lorenzo - 2019
Isaac - 2012
Danielle - 2010
Philippe - 2005
Karl - 2004

[cane5]

As the crow flys coming into Florida as a Cat3….

[ObsessedMiami]

Time to dust off the old login for this year

NWS Miami forecast calls for Tropical Storm conditions possible for Tuesday night

Should be an interesting weekend here in South Florida

TS winds knockout power where I live, the lines are overhead, roh roh. Filling the gas cans in the next hour, enough for 10 days, the new generator(inverter) sips gas while the old one made the gas companies some real money. I'm preparing for a major hurricane in SE Florida, hopefully, my preps are overkill.

Yeah I hear you. I remember the gas shortages during Irma so I’m right behind you this afternoon. Hopefully just a precaution.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573253562691629056

[hiflyer]

Time to dust off the old login for this year

NWS Miami forecast calls for Tropical Storm conditions possible for Tuesday night

Should be an interesting weekend here in South Florida

TS winds knockout power where I live, the lines are overhead, roh roh. Filling the gas cans in the next hour, enough for 10 days, the new generator(inverter) sips gas while the old one made the gas companies some real money. I'm preparing for a major hurricane in SE Florida, hopefully, my preps are overkill.

Out here in Broward/Weston FPL has been working on the overhead main lines with improved towers as part of their multiyear hardening. Communities are all underground. Some models appear to soften onshore sw Fl to a 1 to low 2 on a NE trajectory. Publix then a refresh lube spray on the shutters over the weekend.

[rnj79]

I know some people on here like their Hebert box's

New one on me, and I'm iffy on whether it's "a thing", but now I want to see something similar for Louisiana.

Ask and you shall receive, LARanger:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/ryRX7gF/Cajun-boxes.jpg [/url]

(I think the US boundaries are a little bit off...)

As an "Hebert" living in SELA, this gave me a good chuckle. Thanks for the laugh!