ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Now that Ian has made landfall the impacts are going to be catastrophic since this is literally Charley supersized (landfall location, strength and pressure). I think there’s a strong chance we see a post season upgrade in the vein of Michael since recon, radar and satellite data all supported a C5 peak of 140 kt around 12-13z this morning. It’s weakened since then but still.

Also if it does happen it’ll be extremely cursed for the strongest storm this season since Fiona was 932 mb but only was 115 kt. 130/932 vs 160/937 would be beyond cursed lol. Unless the Caribbean spits out something even stronger then both of them in October which is not impossible (particularly the second have of the month where conditions look better)

I’d put Ian’s peak at 140 kt and 935 mbar earlier this morning. 140 kt is a blend of those 160 kt FL winds (90% conversion yields ~145 kt) and a couple of valid borderline Cat 4/5 SFMR readings from both planes. The extrapolated pressure from both planes was a little lower than the eye drops, so maybe the actual pressure did get a little below the operational 937 mbar. Landfall intensity looks good. It clearly wasn’t a Cat 5…which still doesn’t make things any better for the landfall zone.

[Nimbus]

Poor Englewood... looked like they would at least get the eye for a bit, but the jog east will keep them in the north eyewall for an extended period of time. I would guess you would see the worst wind damage of the storm in that area.

The storm surge is a nightmare, Loftons island is probably back where it came from. At least quite a few people had enough sense to include a concrete parking garage in their bugout plan..

[ConvergenceZone]

Just saw a tweet of a man rescuing a cat from a ledge with storm surge all around. I feel so bad for all of those stray animals that won't be so lucky and will be washed away with the storm surge, never to be seen again, so sad Just wanted to mention this since the lost animals are rarely talked about by the media, which is also sad....

[fllawyer]

On latest radar image on swfmd site, Ian’s eye is completely east of the latest track.

[Texas Snowman]

The damage from this will be staggering…

 https://twitter.com/laurenpastrana/status/1575206199733424128

[MarioProtVI]

Now that Ian has made landfall the impacts are going to be catastrophic since this is literally Charley supersized (landfall location, strength and pressure). I think there’s a strong chance we see a post season upgrade in the vein of Michael since recon, radar and satellite data all supported a C5 peak of 140 kt around 12-13z this morning. It’s weakened since then but still.

Also if it does happen it’ll be extremely cursed for the strongest storm this season since Fiona was 932 mb but only was 115 kt. 130/932 vs 160/937 would be beyond cursed lol. Unless the Caribbean spits out something even stronger then both of them in October which is not impossible (particularly the second have of the month where conditions look better)

I’d put Ian’s peak at 140 kt and 935 mbar earlier this morning. 140 kt is a blend of those 160 kt FL winds (90% conversion yields ~145 kt) and a couple of valid borderline Cat 4/5 SFMR readings from both planes. The extrapolated pressure from both planes was a little lower than the eye drops, so maybe the actual pressure did get a little below the operational 937 mbar. Landfall intensity looks good. It clearly wasn’t a Cat 5…which still doesn’t make things any better for the landfall zone.

The 160 kt FL were apparently at 750 mb so it might be a bit lower then the 90%

[Gums]

Salute!

Looking at "personal weather stations" from "wunderground", I have not seen any steady winds above 100 kt since this morning.

Looking for an airport or official NWS reporting site.

Gums sends...

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1575210626317578240

[PandaCitrus]

Obviously, this is a horrible disaster but some optimistic things I'm seeing.

The wind field is extremely tight. Seems worst wind are in a very narrow radius directly surrounding the eye wall and then drop off very quickly. I'm not seeing Cat 4 winds even as gusts reported *anywhere* which maybe gives us some hope land interaction and maybe dry air prevented the worst winds from hitting the surface.

Lots of new buildings built within the last 20 years with insurance mandated mitigation like new metal roofs, hurricane impact windows. I think we may be pleasantly surprised how newer construction built to code and at proper elevation does fairly well.

I think most of the damage will be surge related. But it's very early and we need to see what the other half of the storm brings.

[SconnieCane]

124 MPH gust per Punta Gorda ASOS.

[bob rulz]

Just spent a couple of hours catching up on the news and posts. Incredible what this storm did leading up to landfall. This could be the worst storm Florida has seen in modern times. I hope for the best, but seeing videos and images already coming out, I fear what daylight tomorrow will bring, not to mention the next couple days of rain.

I found out recently my partner's sister lives in Sarasota. Not sure if she evacuated but I was told she's safe.

[toad strangler]

I think this is right in front of the parking garage Aric Dunn is in. I recognize the building behind Cantore and the sign to it’s from right.

 http://twitter.com/collingrosswx/status/1575205765698052096

[Iceresistance]

Jeez, 100+ MPH Winds on a FLDOT Camera at I-75 and Toledo Blade BVLD.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/accumancuso/status/1575217570495463425

[underthwx]

Jeez, 100+ MPH Winds on a FLDOT Camera at I-75 and Toledo Blade BVLD.

Ice, been meaning to ask you how to access these fldot cameras....

[MetsIslesNoles]

Jeez, 100+ MPH Winds on a FLDOT Camera at I-75 and Toledo Blade BVLD.

Ice, been meaning to ask you how to access these fldot cameras....

https://fl511.com/

[SconnieCane]

https://twitter.com/accumancuso/status/1575217570495463425?s=46&t=fYQlN4qpaT9f65jaoZmBRw

This is basically the surge disaster that Irma wasn't for SW Florida. Marco Island and Naples got the strong front eyewall but because of the way it moved into Marco Island on an almost due N heading, the RFQ was already over land and the onshore flow on the back side didn't really materialize because it had dramatically weakened in "halfacane" fashion.

[CryHavoc]

Obviously, this is a horrible disaster but some optimistic things I'm seeing.

The wind field is extremely tight. Seems worst wind are in a very narrow radius directly surrounding the eye wall and then drop off very quickly. I'm not seeing Cat 4 winds even as gusts reported *anywhere* which maybe gives us some hope land interaction and maybe dry air prevented the worst winds from hitting the surface.

Lots of new buildings built within the last 20 years with insurance mandated mitigation like new metal roofs, hurricane impact windows. I think we may be pleasantly surprised how newer construction built to code and at proper elevation does fairly well.

I think most of the damage will be surge related. But it's very early and we need to see what the other half of the storm brings.

Personally I feel like it's *far* too early to be making optimistic calls about damage for a hurricane that has only made landfall in the past hour or two.

[Iceresistance]

Do not wade outside in the storm surge because this can show up!

 https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1575194411104817152

[hurricaneCW]

Obviously, this is a horrible disaster but some optimistic things I'm seeing.

The wind field is extremely tight. Seems worst wind are in a very narrow radius directly surrounding the eye wall and then drop off very quickly. I'm not seeing Cat 4 winds even as gusts reported *anywhere* which maybe gives us some hope land interaction and maybe dry air prevented the worst winds from hitting the surface.

Lots of new buildings built within the last 20 years with insurance mandated mitigation like new metal roofs, hurricane impact windows. I think we may be pleasantly surprised how newer construction built to code and at proper elevation does fairly well.

I think most of the damage will be surge related. But it's very early and we need to see what the other half of the storm brings.

Personally I feel like it's *far* too early to be making optimistic calls about damage for a hurricane that has only made landfall in the past hour or two.

I agree that it's too early however far too much emphasis is placed on winds vs surge/flooding. The billions of dollars and potential lives lost will be due to surge & flooding. Wind damage will play a small role in comparison.