ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1575294510413893633

[Beachside]

Looking at radar seems like Ian is well east of forecast track ATM.

Been watching WFTV. Tom Terry & his team were discussing that Ian may exit through Brevard county.

Also interesting explanations of the dry air being pulled in from the west (ie no rain here much of the day) as well as the cold air impact in terms of rain and winds in Daytona Beach. Reported Jacksonville is at 62 degrees.

On radar it appears the center is currently near/just south of Sebring. If it continues on the same trajectory it has been on since Punta Gorda, it will exit around Melbourne or Cape Canaveral.

Eye is not well defined anymore on radar, but if I hold my ruler up to it, looks like just north of the Cape.

[Sciencerocks]

Looking at the models I think that Ian has a decent chance of making its second landfall on south Carolina as a hurricane.

[FLLurker32]

One thought I had, and not trying to make light of the situation, but from start to finish, assuming it tracks into SC and eastern NC, Ian has been almost a mirror of Charley. Ian was just south of Charley in the Caribbean and just west while crossing Cuba and tracking toward Florida. Due to impact angle, it is now southeast of Charley's path across the peninsula.

It is, essentially, Charley 2.0: This Time, He's Bigger.

I was hoping to never see one like it again. I drove through Punta Gorda and Ft Myers 3 days after Charlie to check on a friend who rode it out. The destruction was unexplainable. Even as far inland as I-75 the metal light poles were bent in half with the headlights resting on the concrete. To know many of those folks have now experienced it twice just makes my stomach drop.

[Stormgodess]

At this point Im not really sure where to post random things like this, but seeing the speed this water spout/tornado/water spout/tornado, moved and the power it had, was pretty impressive

 https://twitter.com/terri_____/status/1575082364874948608

[FLLurker32]

Compare where we are today with twenty years ago when it was all GFDL and NOGAPS and whatever else. Models would swing storms like this from Texas to Louisiana to Florida and back 48 hours out.

The NHC made it clear that the middle of the west coast of Florida was at risk. I don't know what else they can do if people (speaking generally) see a track from the south pointed at Tampa and decide that means Ft Myers is safe. The actual point of landfall was targeted by multiple models a week out and within the NHC cone for days.

Some just don’t believe it or leave no matter what. When it was projected for Tampa I had to beg my cousin to leave St.Pete and she was in a mandatory evacuation zone with a 1 year old. She just didn’t understand what storm surge is.

My inlaws live in a low lying area of St. Pete. We begged them to leave for two days, and they resisted, but finally came to stay with us yesterday. So, of course, today, we heard about 73 times how they never should have left.

Next time, I can almost guarantee they won't leave. No matter the forecast.

I told my mom this same thing earlier. Next time she almost certainly won’t leave. Instead of just counting her blessings that it changed and she lucked out.

[Hurricanehic]

Timing in Carolinas will be important. Currently having King Tides

[AtlanticWind]

I’ve said it all along..all storms coming close to the Peace River will get drawn up into it. And it did

Powerful hurricanes are steered by the upper level atmosphere, no disrespect but that is just pseudoscience.

Small geographic features can affect weather systems that happen upon their proximity. I wouldn't say that it is a complete coincidence that Ian tracked into exactly the same place as Charley. Charley did enter a little more from the south and exit more to the north (Ian has been tracking more NE to ENE as opposed to Charley's NNE). While atmospheric variables are the main drivers here, local geography can affect things in the short term.

Southwest Florida is flat , there is no geographic feature that is going to have anything to do with
the steering of a hurricane , I am sorry to belabor the point but I hate to see science being disregarded.
There are a lot of local folklore with hurricanes and that can be amusing but atmospheric physics
is what steers hurricanes. You dont read a discussion from the NHC talking about geographic features
Influencing a storm except for maybe a mountain range.

[Hurricane Mike]

Looks like the eyewall is nearing DeSoto City.

[sicktght311]

At this point Im not really sure where to post random things like this, but seeing the speed this water spout/tornado/water spout/tornado, moved and the power it had, was pretty impressive

https://twitter.com/terri_____/status/1575082364874948608?t=7P5gQQMgWJOkxvq28p9zaA&s=19

Almost positive this is old and not related to Ian. It’s been making the rounds on the internet for the last year or so

[zal0phus]

This is probably one of the scariest hurricanes I've ever tracked, and I am dead serious about this. I think the combination of Ian being the ludicrously 6th CONUS Cat 4+ landfalling hurricane in as many years, the storm hitting a region that has escaped severe Cat 4 landfalls for nearly 2 decades, and the storm hitting a relatively populated region make it a unique demon that will be remembered for many years.

Seconded. This storm just has an "evil" feeling somehow that no other storm I've tracked, aside from Dorian, has quite captured

[jonj2040]

I have read that lightning is generally correlated to a strengthing tc. Obviously ian is not strengthening over land as seen in the radar presentation. But I have noticed a decent bit of lightning out here this evening. I don't recall seeing much lightning in the '04 storms i went through. Is there a reason we'd be seeing more lightning in this set up? There is still no rain as well so that makes it feel a bit more strange.

[blueskies]

The situation in Fort Meyers is tragic. My stepfather's family last called at 4:55 PM from Royal Woods, saying that the walls were cracking, water was in the house and rising up to their necks, and that the entire neighborhood was underwater. Since then the water has risen another few feet and we haven't heard from them, my family is driving down to Florida tomorrow to try to find them. Considering only two of them can swim and one just had back surgery (along with living in a one story house) I fear the worst

Are there any resources that could help them find what roads are passable? I really appreciate it, thank you everyone

You might also try to contact the Red Cross of South Florida. They may offer services to help family members communicate with one another.

[wx98]

Powerful hurricanes are steered by the upper level atmosphere, no disrespect but that is just pseudoscience.

Small geographic features can affect weather systems that happen upon their proximity. I wouldn't say that it is a complete coincidence that Ian tracked into exactly the same place as Charley. Charley did enter a little more from the south and exit more to the north (Ian has been tracking more NE to ENE as opposed to Charley's NNE). While atmospheric variables are the main drivers here, local geography can affect things in the short term.

Southwest Florida is flat , there is no geographic feature that is going to have anything to do with
the steering of a hurricane , I am sorry to belabor the point but I hate to see science being disregarded.
There are a lot of local folklore with hurricanes and that can be amusing but atmospheric physics
is what steers hurricanes. You dont read a discussion from the NHC talking about geographic features
Influencing a storm except for maybe a mountain range.

Again, the atmosphere does steer hurricanes on a large scale, yes. But on a small scale, short-term bumps and wobbles can absolutely be affected by geographical features and surface weather conditions (i.e. local min/max in barometric pressure). I have seen that with storms impacting the northern Gulf Coast. Now it doesn't always happen, but it definitely can and sometimes does.

[skillz305]

Gusting to 50+ on the treasure coast

[galaxy401]

Any updates from Sanibel? (The island itself, not the user I mean)

[SouthFLTropics]

Gusting 50+ here in Port St. Lucie. Seeing random flashes from transformers. Should be making it's closest approach to us over the next hour or two.

[Buck]

At this point Im not really sure where to post random things like this, but seeing the speed this water spout/tornado/water spout/tornado, moved and the power it had, was pretty impressive

https://twitter.com/terri_____/status/1575082364874948608?t=7P5gQQMgWJOkxvq28p9zaA&s=19

I saw this video on tiktok last week. It’s not from Ian.

[redingtonbeach]

The situation in Fort Meyers is tragic. My stepfather's family last called at 4:55 PM from Royal Woods, saying that the walls were cracking, water was in the house and rising up to their necks, and that the entire neighborhood was underwater. Since then the water has risen another few feet and we haven't heard from them, my family is driving down to Florida tomorrow to try to find them. Considering only two of them can swim and one just had back surgery (along with living in a one story house) I fear the worst

Are there any resources that could help them find what roads are passable? I really appreciate it, thank you everyone

You might also try to contact the Red Cross of South Florida. They may offer services to help family members communicate with one another.

Contact the Cajun Navy

[jhpigott]

Gusting to 50+ on the treasure coast

Howling here in Jupiter as well. Got to be 50+ gusts