ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Cross Hairs is the last CoC fix per the recon.

[Nimbus]

The models have this moving fairly quickly by the time it reaches Puerto Rico so might not be to bad.
Power outages and local flooding in the usual places but at least the models aren't forecasting a stall while the islands are in the storm circulation.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1571142465524215808

[tolakram]

Floater natural color (RGB)

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-natcolor-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[NDG]

CoC very evident on radar from PR now, starting to wrap around some convection.



http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... 2_TJUA.gif

[IsabelaWeather]

There appears to be an eye clearing out on SJU radar, I looked at the IR and there is a warmer area of clouds in the same location. Looks like its building an inner core

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

There appears to be an eye clearing out on SJU radar, I looked at the IR and there is a warmer area of clouds in the same location. Looks like its building an inner core

It also appears to be gaining some latitude

[IsabelaWeather]

There appears to be an eye clearing out on SJU radar, I looked at the IR and there is a warmer area of clouds in the same location. Looks like its building an inner core

It also appears to be gaining some latitude

Yeah, i dont see any way it misses the island with that trajectory.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[tolakram]

saved floater loop

[pgoss11]

The big story will be the copious amounts of rain with a possible 15-20 inches in some parts of Puerto Rico. This is a dire situation for them. I hope people heed the warnings and evacuate to safe locations. Sending thoughts and prayers to our friends there.

[MGC]

Shear has really let up today allowing for excellent outflow. Should start intensifying soon, almost a given for hurricane intensity when Fiona approaches PR.......MGC

[Hurrilurker]

The mainland U.S. looks like it will escape serious impacts from Fiona, but she could be a MAJOR problem for Bermuda down the line. Plus obviously PR and Hispaniola mostly from rain/flooding.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just browsing back over the model runs, the 12Z GFS run from 4 days ago for 18Z today had no storm at all, just a barely discernible wave. Shows you how much can change in just a few days.

[Teban54]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Classic "shrimp" look. This is organizing at a decent clip.

[KirbyDude25]

Classic "shrimp" look. This is organizing at a decent clip.

https://i.imgur.com/Q8MEHNA.jpg

Is that an eye forming roughly SE of Puerto Rico? Could just be a dry slot, but if it is a proto-eye, it really is organizing quickly

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

Classic "shrimp" look. This is organizing at a decent clip.

https://i.imgur.com/Q8MEHNA.jpg

Is that an eye forming roughly SE of Puerto Rico? Could just be a dry slot, but if it is a proto-eye, it really is organizing quickly

Hi-res visible loop shows accelerating southward motion and cloud thickening to the west, so looks like it might at least be a mid-level eye, though could also be some drier air underneath preventing convection from forming for the time being.

[aspen]

When does the next recon flight take off? Fiona might finally have a better defined LLC by now, and we’ll need recon to confidently determine if Fiona has a mid-level eye or a dry slot.