ATL: IAN - Models

[Ivanhater]

18Z Gfs ensembles



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[Kohlecane]

Really interested how this through will play with this, noting back to the older runs sheared looks wondering if this will put out significant rainfall along FL PH southern GA/SC almost reminds me of Joaquin just from a different approach

[Spacecoast]

18Z Gfs ensembles

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220922/b17c35153c8673fc2d6f03215ead0db9.jpg

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There seems to be quite the difference between Levi, and weathernerds in how they calculate GEFS mean.
I thought AEMN was the official GEFS Mean???

[aspen]

18z HWRF shifts north to be more in-line with the Euro, while the 18z HMON is pretty much a carbon copy of the 18z GFS. It even has the exact same landfall intensity in the Yucatan.

[skyline385]

Really interested how this through will play with this, noting back to the older runs sheared looks wondering if this will put out significant rainfall along FL PH southern GA/SC almost reminds me of Joaquin just from a different approach

Not much rain on the precipitation plots over Florida but think there will be a very decent tornado threat over Central Florida from the all the precipitation being pulled by the front.

[hurricane2025]

18z euro weaker like icon and gfs now

[chris_fit]

Anyone got 18z EPS?

[SFLcane]

Hwrf joins the euro it seems.. Seems to turn NE on the last frame

[crownweather]

Hwrf joins the euro it seems.. Seems to turn NE on the last frame

https://i.postimg.cc/dtGWG9VQ/494-B6-AD9-A799-4-F88-8-E8-E-5-E89-D3-A64094.gif

Interesting that the HWRF forecasts 98-L to struggle to strengthen until it reaches about 80W and then forecasts the lid to come off after that.

[Frank P]

Hwrf joins the euro it seems.. Seems to turn NE on the last frame

https://i.postimg.cc/dtGWG9VQ/494-B6-AD9-A799-4-F88-8-E8-E-5-E89-D3-A64094.gif

I just looked at the 18z HWRF and it does not turn NE from the last two plots of the run, looks to me NNW, but not NE. Imo

[hurricane2025]

Weaker it is the more west it will go

[gatorcane]

Euro vs GFS.. who will give in first? One of them is wrong.

Just go with the consensus which is well west of peninsula Florida and we could see some more shifts west. A track towards the Central/NGOM or FL panhandle is more likely based on climo. Another 2-3 weeks later and I would be much more concerned about a NNE (ala Wilma or Charley redux) for peninsula Florida especially South Florida.

[SFLcane]

Hwrf joins the euro it seems.. Seems to turn NE on the last frame

https://i.postimg.cc/dtGWG9VQ/494-B6-AD9-A799-4-F88-8-E8-E-5-E89-D3-A64094.gif

I just looked at the 18z HWRF and it does not turn NE from the last two plots of the run, looks to me NNW, but not NE. Imo

Yes I meant to say NNW should have no problem catching a ride on that trof.

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF


200mb wind + MSLP

[cycloneye]

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/nbdEo3b.png

NE hook on the 00z models now. The UK model is way east surely.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Euro vs GFS.. who will give in first? One of them is wrong.

Just go with the consensus which is well west of peninsula Florida and we could see some more shifts west. A track towards the Central/NGOM or FL panhandle is more likely based on climo. Another 2-3 weeks later and I would be much more concerned about a NNE (ala Wilma or Charley redux) for peninsula Florida especially South Florida.

we've already had enough rain here in S FL the past week lol. besides we already have tropical storms every day here. it's called a florida thunderstorm

[AnnularCane]

Hwrf joins the euro it seems.. Seems to turn NE on the last frame

https://i.postimg.cc/dtGWG9VQ/494-B6-AD9-A799-4-F88-8-E8-E-5-E89-D3-A64094.gif

Almost like looking into the future.

[stormchazer]

Euro vs GFS.. who will give in first? One of them is wrong.

Just go with the consensus which is well west of peninsula Florida and we could see some more shifts west. A track towards the Central/NGOM or FL panhandle is more likely based on climo. Another 2-3 weeks later and I would be much more concerned about a NNE (ala Wilma or Charley redux) for peninsula Florida especially South Florida.

Yet Charley made landfall on August 14th. I can agree climo may support the Northern Gulf but it’s the pattern this September of 2022 that will decide.

[toad strangler]

Euro vs GFS.. who will give in first? One of them is wrong.

Just go with the consensus which is well west of peninsula Florida and we could see some more shifts west. A track towards the Central/NGOM or FL panhandle is more likely based on climo. Another 2-3 weeks later and I would be much more concerned about a NNE (ala Wilma or Charley redux) for peninsula Florida especially South Florida.

Charley made landfall in FL on AUGUST 14