ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneWarning92]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

I’m sorry to hear this.. my condolences to you and your family.

[wx98]

There are two recon missions scheduled for the next 24 hours, both are AF planes.

The first departs at 21z (5 pm EDT) this afternoon and the second leaves early in the morning at 0830z (4:30 am EDT).

As that second flight will likely be in Ian up until (or close to) landfall, no flights were scheduled after that.

[Iceresistance]

Hurricane Warning in effect for the coastal areas of South Carolina, Hurricane Watch from Savannah, GA to Jacksonville, FL

[cheezyWXguy]

Center of Ian still pretty well defined, and while the wind field is pretty broad and loose, it seems to be tightening up a bit. You can see the blues getting deeper on the west side, and reds turning pink to the southwest of the center on the lower panel, indicating that winds (at least aloft) are modestly increasing.

[hohnywx]

The surge forecast for Charleston, SC, has been raised to 4-7 feet. That area floods during elevated high tides. Going to be significant if that comes to fruition.

[kassi]

https://twitter.com/swmurfl/status/1575498520370376704?s=20&t=vjaLm0ZwYewwRIE62iWQdw



https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1575480232798453761?s=20&t=vjaLm0ZwYewwRIE62iWQdw

My parents got word last night from a friend of a friend (I don't know how reliable, but my mother is trying to hold out hope their house they are renting is still there so I'm not arguing) that their house didn't get flooded but there was "some" damage. The house is about 1.5 miles from the inlet, so I don't know how bad it is. It is on the north end of Bonita Springs at Pelican Landing.
Now I have to worry about my sister in Charleston. I am very ready for Ian to go away.

I hear you. I hope that friend is right. Please update us when you find out for sure.

[wx98]

The surge forecast for Charleston, SC, has been raised to 4-7 feet. That area floods during elevated high tides. Going to be significant if that comes to fruition.

Yeah, this may be a very serious event from Charleston to Wilmington and not too many people are paying attention.

[InfernoFlameCat]

In the odd chance Ian does put back together a core, it could get nasty. It also is a very large cyclone, so surge will be significant.

[hipshot]

https://twitter.com/swmurfl/status/1575498520370376704?s=20&t=vjaLm0ZwYewwRIE62iWQdw



https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1575480232798453761?s=20&t=vjaLm0ZwYewwRIE62iWQdw

That video in Ft. Meyers is awful, it looks like a F5 tornado went through there.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/swmurfl/status/1575498520370376704?s=20&t=vjaLm0ZwYewwRIE62iWQdw



https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1575480232798453761?s=20&t=vjaLm0ZwYewwRIE62iWQdw

My parents got word last night from a friend of a friend (I don't know how reliable, but my mother is trying to hold out hope their house they are renting is still there so I'm not arguing) that their house didn't get flooded but there was "some" damage. The house is about 1.5 miles from the inlet, so I don't know how bad it is. It is on the north end of Bonita Springs at Pelican Landing.
Now I have to worry about my sister in Charleston. I am very ready for Ian to go away.

Please let her know to be ready to get out! Storm surge looks really bad for Charleston if the 4-7 feet surge forecast verifies.

Storm Surge is the most destructive part of the hurricane.

[Coolcruiseman]

Being a longtime "lurker" on this forum and now a Florida resident (on the Space Coast) which at least where I was didn't have a great deal of impact I can say this forum has been invaluable.

It's obvious from what we all have seen unfold with Ian that with even the best tools can't foresee 100% what these storms are going to do. Hindsight is 20/20 in terms of when watches/warnings should have been issued further south, however there's also the flip-side. How many would have heeded evacuation orders realistically? When one looks at the situation without emotion (difficult to do if you have friends/family in that area sometimes) doesn't it still come down to personal responsibility for choices? For too many they look to the government and others for direction vs making their own decision. For example I was watching a Brevard EOC update on FB on Tuesday and they mentioned no evacuations. Yet someone commented "what about those in mobile homes?"

Yes it's a horrible situation that has unfolded in the vicinity of where Ian made landfall. I'm sure if the NHC could redo the last 3 days they would have adjusted based on the now recognized trend that Ian consistently moved east of the "track". Same with government officials and issuing evacuation calls. My point is you don't need others to tell you to evacuate or not though. Look at the information provided by the NHC, local meteorologists, etc and make the call on your own.

Also there isn't too much information out there it's that not enough people utilize it.

[StAuggy]

No surprises here in St Augustine. Downtown flooding as expected. A1A down by Crescent Beach is under water.

Latest update I heard is expected to be a Cat 1 due east of Jacksonville so we are expecting some higher winds now… can anyone help confirm that?

Just getting into the stronger inner band here shortly… if Ian is strengthening it’ll be interesting to see how the winds react

[Iceresistance]

The Sanibel Causeway is a goner, found this photo from a different forum.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Sanibel-Causeway-Storm-Surge-Damage.png

[dukeblue219]

The Sanibel Causeway is a goner, found this photo from a different forum.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Sanibel-Causeway-Storm-Surge-Damage.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Sanibel-Causeway-Storm-Surge-Damage.png

There's another photo showing the bridge portion washed away with a big gap.

This is the stuff people don't think about with evac decisions. You can stay and ride out a storm for eight hours but you might not have access to the outside world for eight days. That's not a trivial risk.

[ConvergenceZone]

Oh my gosh Sanibel, so very sorry to hear about your Mother.... Just remember we are always here for you if you need someone to talk to.......The community here is like one big family.......Take care and stay safe!

[xironman]

Ian looks better than I thought he would going offshore from so long on land. People in northern SC and southern NC need to keep an eye on it.

[CronkPSU]

here in east orlando where the wind is still howling and the rain still coming

you can see the storm wrapping itself back in under radar, think we will be getting lots more rain and wind than was predicted thru tonight now but really worried about those in Jax thru Daytona who already getting insane amounts of rain and have much more ahead

[InfernoFlameCat]

Its like with Katrina, Many people didn't die during the storm, it was after the storm that got them. The lack of AC, lack of clean water, and no way out is what was the real blow.

[tiger_deF]

After a sleepless night I've received the best possible news that I could have given the situation.

A family friend called from a rescuers phone, they were able to stay afloat during the worst of the surge at Ft. Myers. After the waters receded, local emergency services and rescuers were given their location and they performed a water rescue this morning. They are in some pain and very cold/thirsty but most importantly safe, and are warming up at a nearby shelter. The house and all their belongings are a total loss unfortunately, and it could be weeks/months before they get compensated from their flood insurance.

[Vdogg]

Looks to be heading due east, probably ENE on radar. Needs to turn north now or very soon to hit Charleston on the recurve. I'm thinking NC/SC border. Probably why GFS shifted so far east. Interested to see if Euro follows suit.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... te=1&hur=1