ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Poonwalker]

Now forecast to be a major at landfall

I hope my family in Fort Myers are getting their preps done. I guess condition will be more favorable with the change to a Cat 3 at landfall.

The farther south it hits the less impact shear will have since the heaviest shear would occur on an approach to 30N. The only impediment we can hope for will be land interaction with cuba and less time over water.

[AutoPenalti]

Shear is really putting in the work today.

[psyclone]

There's only 1 degree of longitude between Sanibel and Cedar Key. Those same locations represent about 3.5 degrees of latitude. So tiny changes in track can result in wildly differing landfall solutions when a cane is recurving in that low 80's longitude zone.

[cycloneye]

Please, those in southcentral Florida, prepare from now, although you had to do so since June 1.

[HurricaneBelle]

And the FIRST HALF of August it was! Major anomaly. Pun intended.

"Friday the 13th, 2004" .. to be exact! I don't recall if it was a trough or an anomaly that pushed it. Back then for us it was watching local mets on TV and the "Tropical Update" on TWC, but I had a bad feeling about it. My co-workers all thought I was silly when I left early the day before to put the shutters up. Since then I take things even more seriously, and happy this forum exists. Thanks to all who contribute their knowledge here

It was an anomalously-strong trough that came down for mid-August. While Charley was moving through SW & central Florida the panhandle had dew points in the 50s.

In fact that trough/front was so strong it sheared apart Tropical Storm Bonnie, which had moved into the Panhandle the day before and was expected to be stronger at landfall.

[Poonwalker]

There's only 1 degree of longitude between Sanibel and Cedar Key. Those same locations represent about 3.5 degrees of latitude. So tiny changes in track can result in wildly differing landfall solutions when a cane is recurving in that low 80's longitude zone.

This exactly.

[Aric Dunn]

Long loop. you can see several of the reformations that have occured. This is normal for a sheared TS. expect west shift as many have noted already.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

TD10 might steal the name Hermine from TD9. Will there be a recon mission that’ll perform a center fix before the 5pm advisory? That’ll be the only chance TD9 has to steal Hermine from TD10, unless the latter takes a little longer to become a TS.

[kevin]

The current NHC track takes TD9 over some of the highest mountains on the western part of Cuba. And still the forecast blows it up into a MH. If further west shifts occur and TD9 goes over the flatter tip of the island or misses it altogether the potential peak intensity of the storm could go up even more.

[AutoPenalti]

Long loop. you can see several of the reformations that have occured. This is normal for a sheared TS. expect west shift as many have noted already.

https://i.ibb.co/dMLwZQJ/ezgif-com-gif-maker-52.gif

Don't think the west shift matters. NHC has it's sights set for SWFL. The trough will likely determine how sharp the turn is.

[sunnyday]

I understand that locations and strength are not certain at this time, but I see things leaning toward a possible west Fl landfall possibly as a major. Should that happen, what might be expected on the east coast of Fl?
Thank you.

[Aric Dunn]

Long loop. you can see several of the reformations that have occured. This is normal for a sheared TS. expect west shift as many have noted already.

https://i.ibb.co/dMLwZQJ/ezgif-com-gif-maker-52.gif

Don't think the west shift matters. NHC has it's sights set for SWFL. The trough will likely determine how sharp the turn is.

The difference of going western Cuba or through the straights Vs over some of the higher terrain of Cuba to the east...

of course, it matters.

[LarryWx]

TD10 might steal the name Hermine from TD9. Will there be a recon mission that’ll perform a center fix before the 5pm advisory? That’ll be the only chance TD9 has to steal Hermine from TD10, unless the latter takes a little longer to become a TS.

They could both be upgraded at the next regular advisory. If so, it would seemingly come down to minutes since it would probably be dependent on which one has the earlier issued advisory. If we base it on the just released ones, TD #10 would have the better chance to be called Hermine because TD #10's package was released about 10 minutes earlier than the 11AM for TD #9.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I understand that locations and strength are not certain at this time, but I see things leaning toward a possible west Fl landfall possibly as a major. Should that happen, what might be expected on the east coast of Fl?
Thank you.

Stronger winds with less rain I would think. It shouldn’t be too bad unless it goes just to your north. That would be where the strongest part of the storm is(south East). The reason why is because the storm is moving northeast instead of northwest by that time. Impacts would not be as bad. Refer to your local weather station for the most accurate information though.

[Poonwalker]

[ConvergenceZone]

What I don't understand is why the heck I don't see any rapid intensification forecasted in the Carib? Doesn't the Carib suppose to be boiling hot? Or Is there just lots of shear and dry air being forecasted or something in the Carib that's making for such slow strengthening?

[cycloneye]

TD10 might steal the name Hermine from TD9. Will there be a recon mission that’ll perform a center fix before the 5pm advisory? That’ll be the only chance TD9 has to steal Hermine from TD10, unless the latter takes a little longer to become a TS.

5:45 PM EDT.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[Iceresistance]

What I don't understand is why the heck I don't see any rapid intensification forecasted in the Carib? Doesn't the Carib suppose to be boiling hot? Or Is there just lots of shear and dry air being forecasted or something in the Carib that's making for such slow strengthening?

The Wind Shear and the dry air will limit this system for now, but as soon as the wind shear relaxes and the air becomes more moist . . .

[aspen]

What I don't understand is why the heck I don't see any rapid intensification forecasted in the Carib? Doesn't the Carib suppose to be boiling hot? Or Is there just lots of shear and dry air being forecasted or something in the Carib that's making for such slow strengthening?

The Caribbean is indeed extremely favorable. TD9’s limiting factors are how long it takes to organize after recovering from shear, and how much time it actually has to intensify in the WCar. This window of opportunity could be as short as 12-24 hours, or as long as 36-48 hours. Most models don’t go absolutely bonkers, so the NHC forecast isn’t going absolutely bonkers. However, this could easily change if TD9 crosses Jamaica’s longitude as a more organized system that initially expected.