ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Comradez]

I suspect that the strongest winds are probably some distance away from the center with the storm being in its hybrid configuration at the moment. And it probably does not have a sharp wind maximum anywhere, but probably a spread-out high wind plateau of high-tropical-storm winds covering a larger area. I seriously doubt if this thing has hurricane force winds anywhere near the surface. Still, it can definitely cause some rain flooding and minor coastal flooding on the east side.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[PTPatrick]

I think one thing too here is the trouble with messaging when you have a major city threatened. It seems often that the focus is on the effects to the major city, to the detriment of focus on neighboring communities. This is not an NHC problem so much as a media problem. And I don't bring it up as media bashing. Cities do have more people and therefor greater risk of loss of life, particularly from surge so I understand the focus on cities to a degree. I dont think the public at large has a great appreciation for what the surge risk is to an typical waterfront community when a large, high IKE, storm is bearing down. Most people only understand categories and wind, and until the tsunami comes to your town, its is truly hard to fathom the real risk. I certainly felt that way with Katrina. I knew it would be bad. Most people in Mississippi knew it would be bad. But even many people who survived Camille struggled to grasp the possibilities, and when the media is focused on New Orleans (or Tampa, or Houston, etc) impacts, it is just a setup to catch people off guard.

I will say the NHC has made great headway in their surge messaging since Katrina. their maps are decent and they communicate the real risk...its just that I am not sure they really reach very many people or that people "get it".

I think the best answer is some sort of impact scale map or more focus on storm size, the trouble is you cant throw out Saffir Simpson as its a well understand scale from a public knowledge point of view. Perhaps modifying S-S scale to capture surge risk/IKE/Storm size is the next best step. Maybe keep the categories but instead of a category being based on wind alone they could make the categories based on a size/surge/wind combination? just spitballing here.

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1575899482713358336?s=20&t=KbBOIVY1Mdla-4GIFaJzbQ

Is Josh right here? I still have my doubts.

[LarryWx]

If the main center really came inland like Josh said, why are the winds at Georgetown still strong from the north? A low to its SW would be giving G'town SE to E winds, not N winds. Also, the SLP is still falling rapidly there at 29.10" as of 1:35 PM.  

[socplay02]

Winds just started picking up about 15 minutes ago out of the north I think where I am in the Raleigh area (south Raleigh/Garner area).

Not too too crazy, but it's definitely gusting a bit now, which it really hadn't been until now.

[TAD]

I noticed that as Ian approached Cuba it headed directly north from the Sep 27 2AM EDT fix just west of the Isle of Youth to the 8AM fix near Vinales Cuba. When Ian exited Cuba the heading was NNE. Vinales is in a bit of a gap in the mountains. The mountains west of there are lower, fewer and more longitudinal and in line with the wind compared to those east of Vinales which are higher, more numerous and the main ridgeline more latitudinal and athwart the wind. Could the mountains to the east have caused more drag on the right side of Ian and contributed to the heading bending eastward as it exited Cuba? If there were no mountains would the storm have continued north longer? Another example of this possible drag effect would be Charlie's sudden veer to the right. Does drag on one side have any influence on steering? Do models include terrain or proximity to land as a steering factor?

[typhoonty]

This is former WINK chief meteorologist Jim Farrell. He made the most irresponsible post I've ever seen a meteorologist make 2 hours before the eyewall came ashore talking about good news, and in the comments he says to expect less rain. If you want to know why Lee County didn't evacuate this is it. I hope he never lives this down. They aren't even on the air right now because their studio got submerged, Karma. Watch NBC2 and boycott WINK forever if you live in southwest Florida.

[LarryWx]

If the main center really came inland like Josh said, why are the winds at Georgetown still strong from the north? A low to its SW would be giving G'town SE to E winds, not N winds. Also, the SLP is still falling rapidly there at 29.10" as of 1:35 PM.  

The NHC at 2 PM just confirmed that the center has still not made landfall.

[Tireman4]

Winds just started picking up about 15 minutes ago out of the north I think where I am in the Raleigh area (south Raleigh/Garner area).

Not too too crazy, but it's definitely gusting a bit now, which it really hadn't been until now.

I am watching my undergraduate alma mater, North Carolina Wesleyan University in Rocky Mount, NC play LaGrange College. It is windy, gusty at times. Driving rain, as well. ( No, I am not there. It is on Youtube. LOL)

[Iceresistance]

Any source to that info? To have a archive about that in this thread.

Sure thing, here is a link I found:

https://twitter.com/ElijahWeather/status/1575850450384875522

Not the most reliable admittedly, but everyone is still assessing damage so it will probably bounce around more.

Thank you. If there are more updates on the number of fatalities, post them.

We're now officially at 21 dead in Florida.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weath ... story.html

[Iceresistance]

Landfall near Georgetown, SC

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
215 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL NEAR GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA...

Surface observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Ian
made landfall at 205 pm EDT (1805 UTC) near Georgetown, South
Carolina with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and an
estimated minimum central pressure of 977 mb (28.85 inches).

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

I suspect that the strongest winds are probably some distance away from the center with the storm being in its hybrid configuration at the moment. And it probably does not have a sharp wind maximum anywhere, but probably a spread-out high wind plateau of high-tropical-storm winds covering a larger area. I seriously doubt if this thing has hurricane force winds anywhere near the surface. Still, it can definitely cause some rain flooding and minor coastal flooding on the east side.

No, the strongest winds are clearly northwest of the center, affecting Charleston. No TS wind can be found to the right of the track (sustained). I'm still hunting for any sustained wind even close to hurricane strength.

[LarryWx]

Landfall near Georgetown, SC

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
215 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL NEAR GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA...

Surface observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Ian
made landfall at 205 pm EDT (1805 UTC) near Georgetown, South
Carolina with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and an
estimated minimum central pressure of 977 mb (28.85 inches).

A Georgetown landfall about one hour later than when Josh declared landfall 20 miles to the SW makes much more sense and is consistent with the Georgetown obs I was seeing and posting.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Update from Southport NC. Just got back from walking the harbor 2 block from my house . Surge plus high tide was 4.5- 5 ft above normal high tide. We get some high king tides, but this is the highest since Florence. Water crested at the top of the bulkheads and flooded the low lying restaurants and a couple of homes crawlspace and a couple 1st floor At least one home on Bay St has water in the garage. Not much if any wind damage. Winds have been a steady 30-35 mph with a few gusts at 50. All of that high wind is on the waterfront. I consider us lucky and keeping FL folks in our prayers

[NC George]

Tornado warning for eastern NC - Pamlico and Beaufort county. Current location near Bayboro moving to the NW.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/1575920740112551937

[Supersoaker]

We're now officially at 21 dead in Florida.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weath ... story.html

Michael took out 74 (at least) and it hit the middle of nowhere. Look for this number to rise significantly over the coming days and weeks.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1575926270436802560