EPAC: DARBY - Remnants

[Sciencerocks]

At least 55 knots

[wxman57]

Kind of looks like it was a depression a day or two ago and is now hurricane. Oops! Dvorak 2.0??? New guy, Papin, at the NHC wrote the first advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

In addition to SST’s dropping below 26C by Wednesday, wind shear drastically and out of the SW from a TUTT which will bring Darby’s demise by then if thermodynamics don’t.

[skyline385]

Kind of looks like it was a depression a day or two ago and is now hurricane. Oops! Dvorak 2.0??? New guy, Papin, at the NHC wrote the first advisory.

Papin has been at the NHC for 2 years though

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

Not a great trend by the GFS when it comes to time over warm SSTs.

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/995451840105816064/gfs_mslp_pcpn_epac_fh108_trend.gif

Not a great trend by the GFS when it comes to time of warm SSTs.

As long as Darby gets 48-72 hours before gaining latitude, it should have plenty of time over warm enough SSTs to become a major. It already has a nearly complete eyewall; Dmax and another 12-24 hours of uninterrupted intensification should be enough.

Right now convection is rather warm, but new small hot towers keep popping up, and this should look a lot healthier once Dmax arrives.

[Ntxw]

EPAC systems so far certainly have been able to develop lower level centers well this season thus far, vigorous waves. Darby's potential SW movement may let it strengthen perhaps to major, but does need to stay south of 15N. The longer the dip the stronger the storm, I think.

[zzh]

Not looking good on microwave. Appears to be sheared.
These small systems could intensify rapidly and also they could weaken rapidly.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/1mh7au9.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/7OlYhso.jpg
Not looking good on microwave. Appears to be sheared.
These small systems could intensify rapidly and also they could weaken rapidly.

Looks more like dry air got in, or there was an eyewall meld going on. An earlier pass showed what looked to be concentric but not totally complete bands, and visible/IR imagery seems to support that. Perhaps the bands have merged only to be partially broken. Or it’s stuck between developing a small core and a large core.

[Yellow Evan]

It’s dry air. Inevitable when it’s so banding dominant. This is going to need to be become CDO dominant in a couple days if this wants to become a major.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 100026
TCSENP

A. 05E (DARBY)

B. 09/2330Z

C. 14.3N

D. 114.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...0.7 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 1.5
AND THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL CONSTRAINTS LIMITING
BOTH THE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD TO 0.5 T NUMBERS AND
THE FT TO 2.5 WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE INITIAL CLASSIFICATION. A
2340Z SSMIS MW PASS SHOWS A BAND EXTENDING FROM THE NE TO W AROUND THE
CENTER. OF FURTHER NOTE HERE IS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
AROUND 19Z-21Z THAT HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED ALONG WITH THE SYSTEM HAVING
THE CDO SEEN EARLIER NOW APPEAR MORE BAND-LIKE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/2102Z 14.3N 113.6W AMSR2


...HOSLEY

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

05E DARBY 220710 0000 14.3N 114.2W EPAC 40 1004

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DARBY EP052022 07/10/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 56 61 70 75 75 72 66 60 51 44 36 30 23 18
V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 56 61 70 75 75 72 66 60 51 44 36 30 23 18
V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 51 54 57 59 62 62 58 51 43 35 27 21 16 N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 5 4 10 11 9 9 11 6 15 21 21 21 23 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 2 3 1 1 -2 -1 -2 -1 5 3 5 4 2 0 0
SHEAR DIR 269 293 294 312 339 52 52 42 350 334 288 245 248 267 271 286 254
SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.0 24.5 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.8 24.8 24.8
POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 147 148 151 147 140 133 124 114 109 111 108 106 112 110 109
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 74 71 73 73 74 75 74 69 67 65 63 58 51 42 34 32 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 17 17 18 18 17 14 13 11 9 6 3
850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -9 -7 -2 5 4 -6 1 -2 -3 -2 4 1 0 -14 -30
200 MB DIV 8 33 41 48 60 36 61 48 42 35 37 12 -7 -20 -6 -20 0
700-850 TADV 2 -2 0 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 7 6 10 5 8 6 13
LAND (KM) 1053 1111 1183 1286 1394 1580 1770 1967 2059 2180 2189 1913 1649 1348 1042 823 701
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.6 116.9 118.4 119.9 122.6 125.2 127.9 129.7 131.8 134.3 136.8 139.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 14 13 13 11 10 12 12 12 13 14 12 8 6
HEAT CONTENT 22 30 15 21 22 13 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15. 13. 11. 10. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 30. 35. 35. 32. 26. 20. 11. 4. -4. -10. -17. -22.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.3 114.2

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/10/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 6.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 8.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 5.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 1.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 44.9% 31.6% 24.0% 14.8% 30.1% 28.8% 13.3%
Logistic: 14.0% 36.6% 25.7% 20.1% 4.9% 20.6% 10.1% 9.2%
Bayesian: 0.3% 5.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Consensus: 9.5% 29.1% 19.5% 14.9% 6.7% 17.7% 13.1% 7.5%
DTOPS: 10.0% 23.0% 15.0% 11.0% 8.0% 14.0% 19.0% 16.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/10/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 101204
TCSENP

A. 05E (DARBY)

B. 10/1130Z

C. 14.2N

D. 116.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. MET IS 3.0 BASED ON
A RAPID DEVELOPING TREND. PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/0916Z 14.0N 116.4W AMSR2


...GATLING

[cycloneye]

Up to 50Kt.

EP, 05, 2022071012, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1168W, 50, 1002, TS

[wxman57]

It's a tiny storm. I measured the center at 10 miles across and the radius of max winds at around 12 miles. Squalls extend out only about 60-70 miles from the center. Such small storms tend to fluctuate in intensity significantly over short periods of time.

[Sciencerocks]