ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

There's that dry westerly shear the Euro was advertising for days, Earl may have to wait until at least tomorrow to start strengthening again.

[NDG]

Pressure looks to be falling a bit again, down to the mid-990s. The next pass will go through the NE quadrant where the strongest winds probably are.

Also, despite Earl’s convective collapse overnight, recon has found that the wind and pressure gradients align even closer than during the previous flight, indicating that the MLC and LLC have gotten better stacked.

Second pass dropsonde showed only 999mb. It needs to get out of this area of dry westerly shear before it can start strengthening again. IMO.

[NDG]

Looks like the LLC took a nice jog to the ENE following the sheared convection.

[aspen]

The two NE quad/center passes support an intensity of 50-55kt and 997–998mb.

[cycloneye]

AL, 06, 2022090612, , BEST, 0, 235N, 657W, 55, 996, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062022.dat

[cheezyWXguy]

Earl looks to be showing some signs of recovery this morning. Still quite ugly on IR but vis is starting to tell a different story. Guess we will see if it collapses again or if it can hold it together

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

We do have AF305 on the way to Earl unless it's been forced to turn back. But it appears that there is no public data since 10 AM CDT.

[aspen]

We do have AF305 on the way to Earl unless it's been forced to turn back. But it appears that there is no public data since 10 AM CDT.

Data just started updating on Tropical Tidbits. They’re almost at Earl, and assuming data transmission is smooth from here on out, we should get the first center pass in the next hour.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Earl is tightening up. Shear is gradually becoming less destructive. I think it becomes a hurricane today.

[aspen]

Earl is tightening up. Shear is gradually becoming less destructive. I think it becomes a hurricane today.

You might be right. Recon just found ~70-73kt FL winds and ~63kt SFMR winds in the northern part of the storm, and the pressure so far is down a few mbar.

[cheezyWXguy]

Earl is tightening up. Shear is gradually becoming less destructive. I think it becomes a hurricane today.

You might be right. Recon just found ~70-73kt FL winds and ~63kt SFMR winds in the northern part of the storm, and the pressure so far is down a few mbar.

Was just going to post this. I’m not sure what the reduction factor is in this case, but if it’s 0.9, the FL winds just meet the threshold

[Nimbus]

Earl is tightening up. Shear is gradually becoming less destructive. I think it becomes a hurricane today.

You might be right. Recon just found ~70-73kt FL winds and ~63kt SFMR winds in the northern part of the storm, and the pressure so far is down a few mbar.

Was just going to post this. I’m not sure what the reduction factor is in this case, but if it’s 0.9, the FL winds just meet the threshold

Very close to a hurricane again but those winds were measured in the northern quadrant.
Now that it is moving with the shear it probably won't lose its moisture again.
Doesn't look like a threat to Bermuda so hope it moves slow and keeps a weakness there to help recurve the next September CV storm.

[Hammy]

Earl is tightening up. Shear is gradually becoming less destructive. I think it becomes a hurricane today.

You might be right. Recon just found ~70-73kt FL winds and ~63kt SFMR winds in the northern part of the storm, and the pressure so far is down a few mbar.

Was just going to post this. I’m not sure what the reduction factor is in this case, but if it’s 0.9, the FL winds just meet the threshold

172830 2425N 06547W 8446 01462 //// +143 //// 074055 058 055 057 01
172900 2423N 06546W 8407 01499 //// +148 //// 065055 057 063 057 01
172930 2422N 06546W 8440 01457 //// +150 //// 069064 072 060 063 01
173000 2420N 06545W 8424 01472 //// +154 //// 091047 072 063 041 01

Data's flagged if you see 01/03/05 at the end (though I don't recall what specifically those correspond to)

[cheezyWXguy]

You might be right. Recon just found ~70-73kt FL winds and ~63kt SFMR winds in the northern part of the storm, and the pressure so far is down a few mbar.

Was just going to post this. I’m not sure what the reduction factor is in this case, but if it’s 0.9, the FL winds just meet the threshold

172830 2425N 06547W 8446 01462 //// +143 //// 074055 058 055 057 01
172900 2423N 06546W 8407 01499 //// +148 //// 065055 057 063 057 01
172930 2422N 06546W 8440 01457 //// +150 //// 069064 072 060 063 01
173000 2420N 06545W 8424 01472 //// +154 //// 091047 072 063 041 01

Data's flagged if you see 01/03/05 at the end (though I don't recall what specifically those correspond to)

I might be misremembering, but I thought 00 and 01 were accepted while the rest were considered a suspect flag. That said, even if they are accepted, it’s probably not quite a strong enough case for the upgrade yet, but probably justifies a return to 60 kt and 993mb or so

[Teban54]

Was just going to post this. I’m not sure what the reduction factor is in this case, but if it’s 0.9, the FL winds just meet the threshold

172830 2425N 06547W 8446 01462 //// +143 //// 074055 058 055 057 01
172900 2423N 06546W 8407 01499 //// +148 //// 065055 057 063 057 01
172930 2422N 06546W 8440 01457 //// +150 //// 069064 072 060 063 01
173000 2420N 06545W 8424 01472 //// +154 //// 091047 072 063 041 01

Data's flagged if you see 01/03/05 at the end (though I don't recall what specifically those correspond to)

I might be misremembering, but I thought 00 and 01 were accepted while the rest were considered a suspect flag. That said, even if they are accepted, it’s probably not quite a strong enough case for the upgrade yet, but probably justifies a return to 60 kt and 993mb or so

[cycloneye]

VDM has the 72kt.

URNT12 KNHC 061830
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062022
A. 06/17:38:30Z
B. 23.90 deg N 065.72 deg W
C. 850 mb 1365 m
D. 994 mb
E. 335 deg 3 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 63 kt
I. 355 deg 26 nm 17:30:00Z
J. 069 deg 72 kt
K. 355 deg 27 nm 17:29:30Z
L. 47 kt
M. 136 deg 41 nm 17:56:00Z
N. 225 deg 54 kt
O. 135 deg 47 nm 17:57:30Z
P. 16 C / 1538 m
Q. 21 C / 1525 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 1345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF305 1306A EARL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 72 KT 355 / 27 NM 17:29:30Z

[Hammy]

Might actually be enough depending on the next pass to justify hurricane upgrade on the next advisory.

[zzh]

191330 2404N 06549W 8427 01418 9899 +213 +162 004004 006 015 002 00

[ElectricStorm]

990mb extrap this pass