ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

107kt FL, 76kt SFMR in E eyewall. 80kts looks pretty good, NHC spot on

Pressure looks to be a tad lower than what the NHC set it as for the 8pm intermediate advisory. The eye drop of 970/5 supports 969mb.

[Hammy]

Winds still don't seem to be mixing quite so well. Still not sure this reaches Cat 3 given the size will decrease the pressure gradient.

[Landy]

50nm eye now closed per latest VDM.

[aspen]

Two drops in the E eyewall found winds of 83 and 85 kt, respectively. Maybe that’ll be enough to upgrade this to a Cat 2 at 11pm.

[Iceresistance]

Lowest Extrapolated pressure is 966.1 MB on the 3rd pass.

[ElectricStorm]

80kt SFMR in the SW eyewall, that's the highest so far. Looks like they turned back towards the center

[Iceresistance]

80kt SFMR in the SW eyewall, that's the highest so far. Looks like they turned back towards the center

They're likely going to try the NE Eyewall since it's usually the strongest quad, when it's 80 knots SFMR in usually the weakest area, it's better to test the NE side for the true intensity possiblity.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1567683461875474433

[Hurricane2022]

I think the next recon will likely find a major hurricane, or something close to that.

[cheezyWXguy]

80kt SFMR in the SW eyewall, that's the highest so far. Looks like they turned back towards the center

They're likely going to try the NE Eyewall since it's usually the strongest quad, when it's 80 knots SFMR in usually the weakest area, it's better to test the NE side for the true intensity possiblity.

Actually it might not be the strongest quad this time. NE quad is usually the strongest on westward moving hurricanes, but since this is moving N or NNE, I think the strongest winds are probably in the E or SE quads

[cheezyWXguy]

Also, I’m still pretty confident we’re gonna get a major out of this. If FL winds were low enough that they remained consistent with a 0.9 reduction to SFMR, then I’d be inclined to think this will remain too broad for the winds to catch up to the pressure. However, since FL winds would support about 10kt higher than current intensity, it seems more likely that we just need deeper convection to mix those winds down.

[Hammy]

Pressure's leveled off and the last pass is even up 1mb from the previous

[InfernoFlameCat]

Pressure's leveled off and the last pass is even up 1mb from the previous

this hurricane will easily reach major status. Its currently over performing. It should even reach Cat 4. Cat 5 may be out of the question but a solid cat 4 can't be ruled out. Actually, this could be a cat 5 if the trough helps enough. Although I doubt it. Still, easy major for Earl.

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Now a Category 2 per the latest NHC advisory.

[cheezyWXguy]

Pressure's leveled off and the last pass is even up 1mb from the previous

this hurricane will easily reach major status. Its currently over performing. It should even reach Cat 4. Cat 5 may be out of the question but a solid cat 4 can't be ruled out. Actually, this could be a cat 5 if the trough helps enough. Although I doubt it. Still, easy major for Earl.

If it makes it to cat4 I believe it’ll be the farthest north one on record, and I think there’s a decent chance it will. I can’t imagine what combination of conditions would need to come together for a 5, that seems all but impossible to me

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is gonna be one enormous hurricane. Wow. I love massive, intense hurricanes.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Pressure's leveled off and the last pass is even up 1mb from the previous

this hurricane will easily reach major status. Its currently over performing. It should even reach Cat 4. Cat 5 may be out of the question but a solid cat 4 can't be ruled out. Actually, this could be a cat 5 if the trough helps enough. Although I doubt it. Still, easy major for Earl.

If it makes it to cat4 I believe it’ll be the farthest north one on record, and I think there’s a decent chance it will. I can’t imagine what combination of conditions would need to come together for a 5, that seems all but impossible to me

Its got below 10 knots of shear soon, 29 SSTS, and a favorable trough interaction. Conditions are about as good as they get, only issue is upwelling for Earl. It even has the time.

[Hammy]

Pressure's leveled off and the last pass is even up 1mb from the previous

this hurricane will easily reach major status. Its currently over performing. It should even reach Cat 4. Cat 5 may be out of the question but a solid cat 4 can't be ruled out. Actually, this could be a cat 5 if the trough helps enough. Although I doubt it. Still, easy major for Earl.

If it makes it to cat4 I believe it’ll be the farthest north one on record, and I think there’s a decent chance it will. I can’t imagine what combination of conditions would need to come together for a 5, that seems all but impossible to me

Debby in 1982 reached Cat 4 at 38.8N (not sure if that's the record though)

Also I'm not sure why the flight level reduction is being blended here when the actual surface data continues to support 80kt.

[ElectricStorm]

96kt FL, 82kt SFMR in NE quad, looks like winds are slowly making their way down