ATL: IAN - Models

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1572965243558445056

[SFLcane]

12Z cmc...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1572984015065591809

[eastcoastFL]

12Z cmc...

https://i.postimg.cc/Prd9z3tC/CM.gif

How fast is she moving ? That’s kind of a bad scenario as far as affected population, crossing dade, broward and palm beach.

[toad strangler]

I think this continued stall, shown once again by the GFS at 180 hrs is fubar. 500mb doesn't support it this run. I am sure this will be much more progressive than the 12z GFS is once again showing.

[SFLcane]

I think this continued stall by the GFS at 180 hrs is fubar. 500mb doesn't support it this run. I am sure this will be much more progressive than the 12z GFS is once again showing.

See my posts above i think the gfs is out to lunch on this one thus far.

[shah83]

CMC is showing a really deep trough. Overdone?

[MississippiWx]

12Z cmc...

https://i.postimg.cc/Prd9z3tC/CM.gif

CMC/ICON would be best-case scenarios. Not as much time to strengthen and a lot of land interaction. Would also affect much less of Florida. The difference looks to be in how far north it consolidates. Models today trending in a much more northward consolidation, likely feeling the weakness left behind by Fiona. Beginning to wonder if 98L ever touches Gulf waters.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Getting Hazel vibes here in Carolina. Just a little more west with the turn out of the Caribbean

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET is fairly similar to its 0Z run with it moving due north along the 85W longitude at 144 with an extrapolated most likely later hit on or near the FL Big Bend:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.5N 75.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2022 60 15.5N 75.0W 1006 29
1200UTC 25.09.2022 72 16.5N 77.6W 1004 30
0000UTC 26.09.2022 84 18.7N 79.7W 1002 38
1200UTC 26.09.2022 96 20.7N 81.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 27.09.2022 108 23.0N 83.2W 998 34
1200UTC 27.09.2022 120 24.2N 84.2W 996 44
0000UTC 28.09.2022 132 25.2N 84.9W 995 47
1200UTC 28.09.2022 144 26.3N 85.0W 997 50

[caneman]

CMC is showing a really deep trough. Overdone?

CMC has been all over the place with big swings and is the least trustworthy model in my opinion

[jfk08c]

Curious to see the latest GFS ensembles

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS with a Pensacola/Navarre landfall. No curve NE. Feels the trough initially in the western Caribbean, but then loses steering and moves due north.

[Stormcenter]

Trust and models don’t always go together when
it comes to tropical systems especially when you
don’t have an organized system in place yet.

[SunnyThoughts]

GFS with a Pensacola/Navarre landfall. No curve NE. Feels the trough initially in the western Caribbean, but then loses steering and moves due north.

Tired of seeing us in the bullseye, even if it is 10 days away.

[Teban54]

This is likely why it doesn't bomb out in the WCar like every other model does.
 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1572987127931207682

[caneman]

Trust and models don’t always go together when
it comes to tropical systems especially when you
don’t have an organized system in place yet.

I'd bet against the CMC 99% of the time in favor of another model and would win large portions of money.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1572988203883167744

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS with a Pensacola/Navarre landfall. No curve NE. Feels the trough initially in the western Caribbean, but then loses steering and moves due north.

Tired of seeing us in the bullseye, even if it is 10 days away.

Although there has been reassuring trends east, it seems like the mean over the past 3 days has been our backyard. Lol.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1572988279909236738