ATL: IAN - Models

[aspen]

HWRF is trying to sneak this through the Yucatan Channel. This kind of track has the highest intensity ceiling and would give 98L a little more time for RI before running into shear (mentioned by wxman57) that should weaken it ahead of a CONUS landfall.

[wx98]

Euros gonna have a fish storm before we know it.

Technically it won't be a fish. Kinda impossible once something is in the Caribbean. However, yes it could be an OTS storm relative to CONUS.

Hard to believe it would miss Florida completely given its starting position.

Also strong high building over it so I don't see it hitting Florida and getting swept OTS either.

I also don't. I just specificied "could".

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... 144 Hours Hurricane landfall Keys/Everglades City moving NNE into the Florida Peninsula

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/kF0J2U5.gif
12z ECMWF... 120 Hours strong hurricane moving NNW over Cuba towards SFL

TVCN will come to the right, it seems we are back to where we were a few days ago with a big trend east today...take a break and check out your supplies, gfs happy hour should be interesting.

Genny owners:
Make sure you have at least 1 spare spark plug and oil. Oil changes are more frequent than you might think so check your manual. Start it today, let it run for 20 mins under some load.

[SouthFLTropics]

120 to 144 Hours Euro... Putting all of South Florida from Jupiter to the Keys on the dirty side of the storm.

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF... Big E shift... Landfall Keys/Everglades City and exits near Jupiter Florida... Probably Cat 2/3

[SFLcane]

Breath in and breath out South Florida...lol

[skyline385]

12z ECMWF... Big E shift... Landfall Keys/Everglades City and exits near Jupiter Florida... Probably Cat 2/3

Right on top of me in Jupiter lol

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF

[TheHurricaneGod]

J & S fish camp gone on the 12z euro.

[SFLcane]

This is within 5 days Holy smokes!

[Javlin]

Euro is almost exactly the CMC run. This is about that super-deep trough...

The position of the 500mb heights on both models is just about the same and the proximity of the system to the trough is about the same.

[ronjon]

Have to see if east trends continue. Possible it misses S FL and scoots thru Bahamas with stronger trough.

[psyclone]

The EURO is one or 2 runs from missing all of FL to the east!. Still time for that solution to evolve. or for that to evolve and then flip back! Clarity from club NHC will be most helpful.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is within 5 days Holy smokes!

Get ready for the South Florida media hype to start at 5:00 PM today. I'll bet the lines at the gas stations are going to start getting crazy within the next day or so. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and also to see if the 18z GFS comes east again.

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS did not shift east very much if at all.


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/98L_gefs_9.22.2022-at-12z.png

[SoupBone]

The GEFS did not shift east very much if at all.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/98L_gefs_9.22.2022-at-12z.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/98L_gefs_9.22.2022-at-12z.png

No, it didn't. And being ensembles versus operational runs, I still pause a bit when watching the CMC and the Euro.

[SouthFLTropics]

Long range Euro at 192 hours about to give Nova Scotia another big hit after Fiona. I didn't have Nova Scotia as a hot spot on my 2022 hurricane season bingo card.

[AnnularCane]

The GEFS did not shift east very much if at all.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/98L_gefs_9.22.2022-at-12z.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/98L_gefs_9.22.2022-at-12z.png

Any reason why that black line keeps making some weird loop at the end?

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS did not shift east very much if at all.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/98L_gefs_9.22.2022-at-12z.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/98L_gefs_9.22.2022-at-12z.png

Any reason why that black line keeps making some weird loop at the end?

Expected to stall in the GoM