ATL: IAN - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is a pretty rare situation in which the spread of the GEFS (GFS Ensemble) excludes the ECMWF Operational scenario, crossing over SW-Florida. Of course, this is subject to change, but in general it is quite rare to see not even a single GEFS-member going for a solution as far SE as the Euro. Not saying the Euro-scenario is impossible, but in my eyes not too likely regarding the fact that with the GEFSv16 update two years ago the model spread was already increased quite a lot. EPS (Euro Ensemble) spread - and some other models - however do include several members showing a more westerly option.

For now, I would see the Operational ECMWF scenario as one of the SE-most outliers and therefore not too likely. Taking into account all models, you'd probably get somewhere like the TVCN.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_gefs_latest.png

The TVCN goes directly over the peninsula… and that’s with the GFS weighted into it.

[skyline385]

18Z vs 12Z early guidance, there seems to be a slight shift east

[cheezyWXguy]

This is a pretty rare situation in which the spread of the GEFS (GFS Ensemble) excludes the ECMWF Operational scenario, crossing over SW-Florida. Of course, this is subject to change, but in general it is quite rare to see not even a single GEFS-member going for a solution as far SE as the Euro. Not saying the Euro-scenario is impossible, but in my eyes not too likely regarding the fact that with the GEFSv16 update two years ago the model spread was already increased quite a lot. EPS (Euro Ensemble) spread - and some other models - however do include several members showing a more westerly option.

For now, I would see the Operational ECMWF scenario as one of the SE-most outliers and therefore not too likely. Taking into account all models, you'd probably get somewhere like the TVCN.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_gefs_latest.png

This is along my line of thinking too. Models are going to continue shifting around, but I ultimately think they’ll converge somewhere in the central peninsula in the coming days. If by some miracle this thing misses Florida to the east, cheers, but I’m pretty skeptical of that.

[Jelmergraaff]

This is a pretty rare situation in which the spread of the GEFS (GFS Ensemble) excludes the ECMWF Operational scenario, crossing over SW-Florida. Of course, this is subject to change, but in general it is quite rare to see not even a single GEFS-member going for a solution as far SE as the Euro. Not saying the Euro-scenario is impossible, but in my eyes not too likely regarding the fact that with the GEFSv16 update two years ago the model spread was already increased quite a lot. EPS (Euro Ensemble) spread - and some other models - however do include several members showing a more westerly option.

For now, I would see the Operational ECMWF scenario as one of the SE-most outliers and therefore not too likely. Taking into account all models, you'd probably get somewhere like the TVCN.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_gefs_latest.png

The TVCN goes directly over the peninsula… and that’s with the GFS weighted into it.

Yes, but not the far SE-tip of Florida where ECMWF shows it.

[skyline385]

Am I reading that right? 140 mph gusts right before landfall???? Wilma didn't get past 90 mph gusts and it did a whole lot of damage in SE Florida....

Most models struggle with winds inland, wouldn’t dig too much into it especially gusts


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The swamp is plenty warm enough to sustain winds

We are not talking about the system weakening or sustaining itself though but the gusts which euro is showing. A global model can not accurately resolve gusts especially inland. Euro for example works of a 8 km grid, it can’t resolve features inland which vary in meters and which play a role in determining gusts.


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[Blown Away]

Most models struggle with winds inland, wouldn’t dig too much into it especially gusts


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The swamp is plenty warm enough to sustain winds

We are not talking about the system weakening or sustaining itself though but the gusts which euro is showing. A global model can not accurately resolve gusts especially inland.


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The euro was very accurate in predicting 100 mph wind gusts on the East Coast near Stuart from Irma. When the eye starts to move offshore the winds right along the coast significantly increased, I experienced that with Wilma.

[jdray]

Breaking news. TVCN now crosses Florida Penninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/ODuaTMA.png

I don't like this ride so far. That's a path that can cause some damage up in NE Florida. Land friction and gulf/Atlantic moisture mixed with peninsula heating means more tornadic activity, even if the storm is weaker.

[LarryWx]

I finally saw the 12Z UKMET at 168. It is ~100 miles SE of the heart of the FL Big Bend moving NE with a projected Big Bend landfall at about hour 180 (9/29).

[SFLcane]

Just a bit on the windy side South Florida.

[Michele B]

Just a bit on the windy side South Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/ncB4vc6H/fhfhf.png

Oh, boy. This would be WORSE case scenario. I don't even like to think about it. I'm not in the worst of those winds, but too many are.

[WiscoWx02]

I think by this time tomorrow many of the models will show this missing the CONUS entirely given recent trends.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think by this time tomorrow many of the models will show this missing the CONUS entirely given recent trends.

Possibly, but I personally can’t see it going so far east, it doesn’t clip something. Could happen, but that’s tough to do from this location this time of year.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think by this time tomorrow many of the models will show this missing the CONUS entirely given recent trends.

Possibly, but I personally can’t see it going so far east, it doesn’t clip something. Could happen, but that’s tough to do from this location this time of year.

Yeah I agree; I haven't really heard or seen much along the lines of this shifting that far east. The GFS shifted east, sure, but right smack dab over Florida.

[Michele B]

I think by this time tomorrow many of the models will show this missing the CONUS entirely given recent trends.

I'd like to think so, too, but I don't think that trough is going to dive down THAT far to push it that strongly before it moves further west. Meaning: it's probably going to at least "clip" the state before being picked up and making a right turn.

[Stormlover1970]

With no closed low we will not know anything until Saturday or Sunday

[CrazyC83]

I think by this time tomorrow many of the models will show this missing the CONUS entirely given recent trends.

Some could start missing Florida but then turn north into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast, if a trough can intercept it.

[AutoPenalti]

Meh, 144 hrs out.

Nice picture to save in the album though.

[AdamFirst]

Happy Hour ICON ends in a similar position south of the middle Keys. Slightly weaker compared to 12z.

[jfk08c]

GFS running. Wonder if we will get another east bump

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I bet this is going to be a classic "meet in the middle" situation between the GFS and Euro. I think the Euro might be a little too aggressive with that NE turn; the GFS not aggressive enough (north or central FL peninsula maybe). I don't see how 98L can gain as much latitude as quickly as the Euro is indicating.