SPAC: CODY - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

99P INVEST 220103 0600 10.0S 178.0E SHEM 15 0

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A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.80S
172.70E AT 070600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS WRAPS ONTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENT AREA
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS IT
MOVING IT SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.


THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 HRS IS LOW
THEN MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.
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NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[Subtrop]

GALE WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 080106 UTC.

TROPICAl DEPRESSION TD03F [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.1S 172.6E AT 080000UTC.
POSITION FAIR. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING.

EXPECT WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WITHIN 60 TO
120 NAUTICAL MILES OF TD03F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH TO EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

EXPECTED GALES TO MOVE WITH TD03F.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 007.

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 080942 UTC.

A TROPICAL DEORESSION 03F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.4S
173.30E AT 080600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON:

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FKPS01 NFFN 091912
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20220109/1800Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: CODY (CO-DEE)
ADVISORY NR: 2022/1
OBS PSN: 09/1800Z S2018 E17718
CB: WI 100NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: SW 05KT
C: 995HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 10/0000 S2036 E17712
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 10/0600 S2036 E17636
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 10/1200 S2036 E17612
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 10/1800 S2042 E17536
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 40KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20220110/0100Z=

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[Yellow Evan]

Would say it may be making a run at hurricane status given the at least an attempt of inner core formation but I doubt there’s much on the west side.

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[Yellow Evan]

Solid mid latitude hurricane.